Q. & A.

What Do India’s Gen Z Protests Mean for Modi?

印度 Z 世代的抗议对莫迪意味着什么?
A movement of young people frustrated with India’s education system and economy has become the most serious challenge yet to an increasingly authoritarian government.
一群对印度教育体系和经济深感失望的年轻人,发起了一场运动,这已成为日益威权的政府迄今面临的最严峻挑战。
A large group of young men gathered on barricades and in a tree.
Photograph by Ritesh Shukla / Getty

In late July, an upstart Indian protest movement, led by a group calling itself the Cockroach Janata Party, forced the Minister of Education to submit his resignation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi—a shocking concession from an increasingly authoritarian government. The C.J.P. was formed in May after the chief justice of India’s Supreme Court referred to some portion of India’s youth as “cockroaches” and “parasites.” This fuelled concerns that the government didn’t care about lacklustre job opportunities for young Indians and a failing education system.

七月下旬,一个名为“蟑螂人民党”(Cockroach Janata Party)的团体领导了一场新兴的印度抗议运动,迫使教育部长向总理纳伦德拉·莫迪提交辞呈——对于一个日益威权的政府而言,这是一次令人震惊的让步。C.J.P. 成立于今年五月,起因是印度最高法院首席大法官将部分印度年轻人称为“蟑螂”和“寄生虫”。这加剧了人们的担忧,即政府并不关心印度年轻人黯淡的就业机会和失败的教育体系。

The protest movement quickly matured beyond the joke of its name (Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is known as the B.J.P.), spurring mass protests in New Delhi, and across the country. Many of the demonstrations were met with harsh words from the Modi administration and a violent response from local authorities, but the fact that Modi was willing to offer limited compromises suggests that these protests worried the government more than any other opposition had in the twelve years since Modi became Prime Minister. (Abhijeet Dipke, one of the leaders of the movement, called for a pause to the protests after the firing, and promised that the government would compensate the families of students who had allegedly killed themselves after being ordered to retake a medical exam.)

这场抗议运动很快就超越了其名称的戏谑意味(莫迪的印度人民党简称 B.J.P.),在新德里及全国各地引发了大规模抗议。许多示威活动都遭到了莫迪政府的严厉言辞和当地政府的暴力回应,但莫迪愿意做出有限妥协这一事实表明,这些抗议比莫迪担任总理十二年来任何其他反对力量都更令政府担忧。(该运动的领导人之一阿比吉特·迪普克(Abhijeet Dipke)在解雇事件后呼吁暂停抗议,并承诺政府将赔偿那些据称在被要求重考医学考试后自杀的学生的家属。)

I recently spoke by phone with Manisha Pande, who has been covering the protests as editor-in-chief of the site Newslaundry. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why these protests took off in ways other protests against Modi’s government did not, why it’s dangerous to underestimate Modi’s political strength, and where the energy behind the protests might go next.

我最近通过电话采访了曼尼莎·潘德(Manisha Pande),她作为 Newslaundry 网站的主编,一直在报道这些抗议活动。我们的对话经过了长度和清晰度的编辑,讨论了为何这些抗议能以其他反莫迪政府抗议所没有的方式兴起,为何低估莫迪的政治实力是危险的,以及抗议背后的能量接下来可能走向何方。

At a very basic level, how do you understand the strength of these protests?

从最基础的层面看,您如何理解这些抗议的力量?

There is this huge anxiety among Indians, and especially young people in India, that there isn’t a future for them. And this wasn’t always the feeling. When the Nepal Gen Z uprising happened, last year, and I was asked whether we’d have something similar in India, I always believed no, because for all of India’s chaos there’s always this promise that we have made for our young people: if you work hard and you study hard, you can make a life for yourself. I think what we’re seeing is a fading away of that dream.

印度人,尤其是印度的年轻人,普遍存在一种巨大的焦虑感,觉得他们没有未来。这种感觉并非一直都有。去年尼泊尔 Z 世代起义发生时,有人问我印度是否也会发生类似的事情,我一直认为不会,因为尽管印度一片混乱,但我们一直对年轻人有这样一个承诺:如果你努力工作,刻苦学习,你就能为自己创造生活。我想,我们现在看到的是这个梦想的逐渐破灭。

So the main issue here is that a lot of young people feel that they could put in the hard work, but all that effort would mean nothing. So there’s a despondency with the system. Everyone wants a government job, because it comes with the security of a base salary. So examinations then become very important for young people. They are seen as the only way in which you can change your circumstances.

所以,这里的主要问题是,很多年轻人觉得他们可以付出努力,但所有这些努力都毫无意义。因此,他们对体制感到绝望。每个人都想要一份政府工作,因为它有基本工资带来的保障。于是,考试对年轻人来说变得非常重要。它们被视为改变自身处境的唯一途径。

Right, how much of this is about the education system itself, versus the possibilities for young people after they leave the education system and enter into the job market and adulthood? Do you differentiate between these things?

对,这其中有多少是关于教育体系本身,又有多少是关于年轻人离开教育体系、进入就业市场和成年生活后的可能性?您会区分这两者吗?

I think they’ve come together to create this perfect storm of anger against the system. When you talk to young people, they talk about “the system,” as in, “You know, the system is rigged. We can do whatever we try to do, but we can’t rise above our circumstances.” So I think that part of the frustration is a severe lack of opportunities. India has not been able to create the kind of jobs that we need to create for our young population. There’s still a lot of dependence on those government jobs.

我认为这两者结合起来,共同酿成了这场针对体制的完美愤怒风暴。当你和年轻人交谈时,他们会谈到“体制”,比如,“你知道,体制是被操纵的。我们可以尝试做任何事,但我们无法超越自己的处境。”所以我认为,挫败感的一部分源于机会的严重匮乏。印度一直未能创造出我们需要为年轻人口创造的那种就业机会。对政府工作的依赖仍然很大。

Then, there is this whole education system, and that is a longer-term problem, and it predates Modi. We have had, for a very long time, an education system that has been reduced to a system of examinations. So, when a student passes their tenth grade, they immediately enroll in coaching classes for the exam that they want to take, whether it’s to get into a premier technical institute, whether it’s getting into a medical college. And so our focus as a nation has been less on education and more on, How do you crack an exam? Around that, you’ve had this coaching industry that has sprung up. It’s very common for students who, after they’ve passed their twelfth grade, take a year off, and they join one of these coaching centers. They often take loans to do that, because not everyone can afford the coaching.

然后,就是整个教育体系的问题,这是一个更长期的问题,在莫迪之前就存在了。很长一段时间以来,我们的教育体系已经沦为考试体系。所以,当一个学生读完十年级,他们会立刻报名参加针对他们想参加的考试的辅导班,无论是为了进入顶尖的技术学院,还是进入医学院。因此,我们作为一个国家,关注点较少放在教育上,更多放在如何攻克一场考试上。围绕这一点,催生了一个庞大的辅导产业。学生读完十二年级后,休学一年去参加这些辅导中心,这非常普遍。他们常常为此贷款,因为不是每个人都能负担得起辅导费用。

The media coverage around it exacerbates the pressure. Every year, there’s a celebration around who topped the exam, who are the toppers, who are the people who made it? And, the guys who fall through, there are no questions asked about what they do with their life, where they go, what their opportunities are. If they don’t crack an exam, students don’t see an opportunity, apart from gig work. I meet so many kids in colleges here who say that, Look, the only thing we can do is, like, work for the food-delivery app Zomato, or the grocery-delivery app Blinkit. But there’s no safety in those jobs, and we don’t really have enough jobs in the private sector. The private sector complains that there are jobs but that Indians aren’t skilled enough to be hired.

围绕此事的媒体报道加剧了这种压力。每年,都会有庆祝活动,关注谁是考试状元,谁是佼佼者,谁是成功者?而那些落榜的人,没人过问他们如何生活,去了哪里,有什么机会。如果考不过试,学生们除了打零工,看不到任何机会。我在这里的大学里遇到很多孩子,他们说,瞧,我们唯一能做的,就是给外卖应用 Zomato 或杂货配送应用 Blinkit 打工。但那些工作没有保障,而且私营部门也确实没有足够的工作岗位。私营部门抱怨说,有工作岗位,但印度人技能不足,无法被雇佣。

There’s another cultural aspect to this, which I think one should pay attention to. The B.J.P.’s mother ship is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (R.S.S.), a Hindu nationalist organization. Shaping the nation is a very important ideological goal, and they’ve always felt that they’ve lost out to the secularists, the post-independence leaders who set India on this secular path.

这其中还有一个文化层面,我认为值得关注。印人党的母体是国民志愿服务团(Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh,简称 R.S.S.),一个印度教民族主义组织。塑造国家是一个非常重要的意识形态目标,他们一直觉得自己输给了世俗主义者,即那些将印度带上世俗道路的独立后领导人。

Right, the R.S.S. is the ideological backbone of the B.J.P. and Modi himself, and of the Hindu right in India going back all the way to before independence.

对,R.S.S. 是印人党和莫迪本人的意识形态支柱,也是印度教右翼的支柱,其历史可以一直追溯到独立之前。

Exactly. And while the R.S.S. say they cannot have any formal power in the government, because they say that they’re an N.G.O., what they want is to shape India in the way that they see fit, which is to make it more Hindu, and the way to do that is to shape education. So you’ve had the B.J.P. allegedly appoint several R.S.S. functionaries within higher education. You’ve had this whole push to change textbooks, and dictate what can and can’t be taught in schools, and as a result what you’ve seen on campuses in India is a massive crackdown on dissent, on free speech, on progressive thought. It is so ironic that these protests came to Delhi, because for the last year or two my news site has been extensively covering a complete crackdown on dissent on campuses. So I think you also have to look at this moment, in part, being about young people not having the space to do basic things.

没错。虽然 R.S.S. 声称他们不能在政府中拥有任何正式权力,因为他们说自己是一个非政府组织,但他们想要的是按照自己认为合适的方式塑造印度,即让它变得更印度教化,而实现这一点的途径就是塑造教育。因此,据称印人党在高等教育机构中任命了数名 R.S.S. 工作人员。他们大力推动修改教科书,规定学校里什么能教、什么不能教,结果就是,你在印度的校园里看到的是对异议、言论自由和进步思想的大规模打压。非常讽刺的是,这些抗议活动来到了德里,因为在过去一两年里,我的新闻网站一直在广泛报道校园里对异议的全面镇压。所以,我认为你也必须从这样一个角度来看待这个时刻:部分原因在于年轻人连做基本事情的空间都没有了。

Some of the news coverage here in the West has implied that the protests mean Modi is increasingly unpopular or weak. We don’t have a lot of polling data. But from the polling data we do have it seems Modi is in fact popular. When you look at state elections in India, even in places that historically have been very inhospitable to the Hindu right, Modi’s party is doing extremely well. Now, some of these elections have “irregularities,” which should be noted, but I’m trying to understand the paradox, because it does seem to me that the way these protests have taken off suggests discontent about the government, but, electorally, the B.J.P. still seems strong.

西方这里的一些新闻报道暗示,抗议意味着莫迪越来越不受欢迎或变得虚弱。我们没有太多民调数据。但从我们已有的民调数据来看,莫迪似乎实际上很受欢迎。看看印度的邦选举,即使在历史上对印度教右翼非常不友好的地方,莫迪的政党也表现得极其出色。现在,其中一些选举存在“违规行为”,这一点值得注意,但我试图理解这个悖论,因为在我看来,这些抗议的兴起确实表明了对政府的不满,但从选举上看,印人党似乎依然强大。

In the 2019 general election, the B.J.P. won three hundred and three out of five hundred and forty-two seats in the lower house of Parliament. The number of people who voted for his party, percentage-wise, was around thirty-seven per cent. So you still have a vast segment of India that did not vote for Modi’s party, right?

在 2019 年的大选中,印人党赢得了议会下院 542 个席位中的 303 席。投票给他政党的人数,按百分比算,大约是 37%。所以,印度仍有很大一部分人没有投票给莫迪的政党,对吧?

Now, typically, what should happen is that the people who have not chosen Modi should have an outlet to share their views. But in India we’ve seen a systematic breakdown of that outlet. Mainstream media played that role very well for a very long time in India, and could mirror the dissatisfaction that people had. But lately the people who didn’t vote for the B.J.P. don’t hear their voices anywhere. If you switch on the mainstream television news in India, it’s just about how great everything is, how amazing Modi is, and anyone who thinks otherwise is called anti-national. Any sort of protest is shown as evil, or it’s a plot by the C.I.A., or it’s a plot by Pakistan. So I think one of the ways to understand this outburst is that the portions of the country that did not vote for Modi have not had outlets for a very long time that allow them to come out and express themselves. When I went to the protest site, sure, there were students who were really concerned about exams and their future, but there were also a lot of people who came out just to say that, Hey, it’s O.K. to protest. You know, we can say we don’t like this government. Why are we demonized by the mainstream media, and why are opposition M.P.s routinely demonized on mainstream news?

那么,通常情况下,那些没有选择莫迪的人应该有一个表达观点的渠道。但在印度,我们看到这个渠道系统性地崩溃了。主流媒体在印度很长一段时间里很好地扮演了这个角色,能够反映人们的不满。但最近,那些没有投票给印人党的人在任何地方都听不到自己的声音。如果你打开印度的主流电视新闻,里面全是讲一切都多么伟大,莫迪多么了不起,任何不这么认为的人都被称为反国家。任何形式的抗议都被描绘成邪恶的,或者是中央情报局的阴谋,或者是巴基斯坦的阴谋。所以,我认为理解这次爆发的其中一个方式是,这个国家没有投票给莫迪的那部分人,已经很长时间没有渠道让他们站出来表达自己了。当我去抗议现场时,当然,有真正关心考试和未来的学生,但也有很多人出来只是为了说,嘿,抗议是可以的。你知道,我们可以说我们不喜欢这个政府。为什么我们被主流媒体妖魔化,为什么反对党的议员在主流新闻中经常被妖魔化?

So this became, like, a collective therapy session for everyone unhappy with the government. Because they haven’t had that space anywhere else. You don’t even have any debates in Parliament anymore.

所以,这变成了一次对所有对政府不满的人的集体疗愈。因为他们没有其他地方可以找到这样的空间。议会里甚至再也没有任何辩论了。

Donald Trump got forty-six per cent of the vote the first time, which is more than Modi won, but I don’t want people thinking that Modi is as unpopular as Donald Trump is, because I don’t think that that’s true, even if he gets a smaller percentage of the vote. I do think that it’s fair to say that Modi has been a pretty popular leader, and his party’s been enormously successful over the past dozen years.

唐纳德·特朗普第一次当选时获得了 46% 的选票,比莫迪赢得的要多,但我不想让人们认为莫迪像唐纳德·特朗普那样不受欢迎,因为我认为那不是真的,即使他获得的选票百分比较低。我确实认为,公平地说,莫迪一直是一位相当受欢迎的领导人,他的政党在过去十几年里取得了巨大的成功。

For sure. And the issue of education unites everyone—I met a lot of B.J.P. supporters in these protests, too. They would say they voted B.J.P., and worked for the Party, and support Modi, but also think the situation is really hard for kids. I don’t think we can look at this and say everyone hates Modi, or that he’s unpopular, or that he is going to lose upcoming elections. But there really has been such a crackdown on voicing anger with the government, and the result is that young people have spilled onto the streets.

当然。而且教育问题能团结所有人——我在这些抗议中也遇到了很多印人党的支持者。他们会说他们投了印人党的票,为党工作,支持莫迪,但也认为现在的情况对孩子们来说真的很难。我认为我们不能看着这一切就说每个人都恨莫迪,或者他不受欢迎,或者他会输掉即将到来的选举。但是,对表达对政府的愤怒的压制确实非常严重,结果就是年轻人涌上了街头。

Yeah, an Indian friend suggested to me that there was also something about how, over Modi’s tenure, the degree to which the media has gotten so tightly controlled means that this level of protest, when it became visible, shocks people and leads to even more excitement. Do you think this is also a media story?

是的,一位印度朋友向我提出,在莫迪任期内,媒体被控制得如此之紧的程度,也意味着这种程度的抗议一旦变得可见,就会让人震惊,并引发更大的兴奋。你认为这也是一个媒体事件吗?

Yes, exactly. I think the traditional role for the media has been to show some of the anger that people feel, and, because it’s failed to do that, you’ve had this explosion of anger onto the streets. If you look at the coverage of this protest itself, when there was a very intense police crackdown, you had police using tear gas and pellet guns. But you didn’t see any of that on television news. It was a complete blackout. The only news that channels were running was that mobs and rioters had taken over the streets, and attacked the police.

是的,没错。我认为媒体的传统角色是展示人们感受到的一些愤怒,而正因为它没能做到这一点,你才看到这种愤怒在街头的爆发。如果你看看这次抗议本身的报道,当警方进行非常激烈的镇压时,他们使用了催泪瓦斯和橡皮子弹。但你在电视新闻上看不到任何这些。完全是封锁消息。各频道播放的唯一新闻是,暴徒和骚乱者占领了街道,袭击了警察。

I’ve been covering the media for a very long time, and I see increasingly, even among B.J.P. supporters, that they are very unhappy with the media coverage, because they feel as if it doesn’t tally with their real life. So you could be a B.J.P. supporter, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult for you to run your household on the money that you’re making. And that concern is not shown anywhere in the media. The channels you switch on, you’re told everywhere that India is a world leader, America loves Modi, Modi’s making us the strongest nation in the world: everything is great. So I think there is this sense among people that pain points aren’t being reflected enough in the media. And now that irritation has been transferred to the government, because I think people, today, see television media and government as part of the same arm. They see the media as an extension of the government, of the establishment. You have had anchors getting heckled because they became the faces of an uncaring establishment.

我报道媒体已经很长时间了,我越来越多地看到,即使在印人党支持者中,他们也对这些媒体报道非常不满,因为他们觉得这与他们的现实生活不符。所以,你可能是一个印人党支持者,但靠你挣的钱来维持家庭开销变得越来越困难。而这种担忧在媒体上无处可见。你打开的电视频道,到处都在告诉你印度是世界领导者,美国热爱莫迪,莫迪正让我们成为世界上最强大的国家:一切都很好。所以,我认为人们有一种感觉,即痛点没有在媒体中得到充分反映。现在,这种不满已经转移到了政府身上,因为我认为,今天的人们把电视媒体和政府视为同一阵营。他们将媒体视为政府、体制的延伸。已经有主播遭到诘问,因为他们成了冷漠体制的代言人。

It feels like we saw something similar in Hungary. I’m not saying that Modi’s party will lose the next election, but in Hungary there was increasing media control, and during a period when things were going well enough economically, people put up with it. But, when things started to get worse, an anger at the media emerged.

感觉我们在匈牙利也看到过类似的情况。我不是说莫迪的政党会输掉下次选举,但在匈牙利,媒体控制日益加强,在经济状况还算不错的时期,人们容忍了这一点。但是,当情况开始恶化时,对媒体的愤怒就出现了。

Yeah. We did a survey, looking at three to four months of television news coverage, in terms of the prime-time content and what they were talking about. The amount of time they devoted to jobs was less than one per cent. Education was less than one per cent. Half of the content was about communal tensions between Hindus and Muslims—this jihad and that jihad. And forty per cent was about how great Modi is and how terrible the opposition is. You know, Modi even stopped the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the world loves him, he’s a leader. So, I think, at some point, people felt that, look—

是的。我们做了一项调查,查看了三到四个月的电视新闻报道,就黄金时段的内容和他们谈论的话题而言。他们花在就业问题上的时间不到百分之一。教育不到百分之一。一半的内容是关于印度教徒和穆斯林之间的社群紧张关系——这个圣战,那个圣战。百分之四十是关于莫迪多么伟大,反对党多么糟糕。你知道,莫迪甚至阻止了乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的战争,全世界都爱他,他是一位领袖。所以,我认为,在某个时刻,人们觉得,瞧——

Modi stopped the war between Ukraine and Russia? I hadn’t known that.

莫迪阻止了乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的战争?我还不知道这个。

Yeah, there was a whole campaign around it in 2024, for his third election. It felt like what I imagine North Korean news would be.

是的,在 2024 年他第三次竞选期间,围绕这一点有一整套宣传攻势。感觉就像我想象中的朝鲜新闻。

O.K., so then how exactly do you understand Modi and his government’s response to the protests? It seems like a combination of cracking down and tough rhetorical moves against the protesters, while at the same time making some government changes to perhaps concede that you sort of understand the anger of the protesters?

好吧,那么您究竟如何理解莫迪及其政府对这次抗议的回应?看起来像是镇压和对抗议者强硬的言论攻势相结合,同时又做出一些政府人事变动,或许是在承认你多少理解抗议者的愤怒?

I think the response that surprised everyone the most was the resignation of the Education Minister. I don’t think any one of us was expecting that that would happen.

我认为最让所有人惊讶的回应是教育部长的辞职。我不认为我们中有任何人预料到会发生这种事。

Before these protests, you had the farmers’ protests in 2020 and 2021, against an attempt by the Modi government to reshape the country’s agriculture industry. And farmers had to protest for over a year before Modi rolled back the laws that they were protesting against. So, as journalists, we were very certain that these protests by students and young people would not force a resignation, and I was very surprised when they did. And I think one key reason for that is that the protests increasingly targeted Modi. At first, they just wanted the resignation of the Education Minister, but, by the end of it, it became about Modi. Every slogan, every poster was about Modi, and how tyrannical he is. I think the government just wanted to cut their losses at that point, because they could see that it was becoming about Modi.

在这些抗议之前,2020 年和 2021 年发生了农民抗议,反对莫迪政府重塑国家农业产业的企图。农民们不得不抗议了一年多,莫迪才撤销了他们抗议的那些法律。所以,作为记者,我们非常确定,这些由学生和年轻人发起的抗议不会迫使任何人辞职,当它真的发生时,我非常惊讶。我认为一个关键原因是,抗议活动越来越多地将矛头指向莫迪。起初,他们只是想要教育部长辞职,但到最后,这变成了针对莫迪。每一条口号,每一张海报,都是关于莫迪,以及他有多么专制。我认为政府当时只是想及时止损,因为他们能看到这正在变成针对莫迪的运动。

Remember, Modi is not someone who gives press conferences. He’s not someone who’s been lampooned ever, in the way that these protesters were doing, and I think that became scary for them. I think they also miscalculated how big the protests would become. And initially they weren’t so big, until the activist Sonam Wangchuk went on a hunger strike, and then there were instances of police brutality. So I think there was a miscalculation on the government’s part, because previous protests had been controlled more easily. Another crucial part of the movement’s success was that there were B.J.P. kids and the children of ministers here.

记住,莫迪不是一个会召开新闻发布会的人。他也从未像这些抗议者所做的那样被讽刺挖苦过,我认为这对他们来说变得很可怕。我认为他们也误判了抗议活动的规模会变得多大。起初规模并不大,直到活动人士索南·旺楚克(Sonam Wangchuk)进行绝食抗议,随后又发生了警察暴行的事件。所以,我认为政府方面存在误判,因为之前的抗议活动更容易被控制。这场运动成功的另一个关键因素是,这里有印人党的孩子和部长们的子女。

Do you perceive the protests as having an ideological component, larger than frustration about the economy and the educational systems? You mentioned the R.S.S. and the backlash to its moves, but do you see in these protests as an opposition to Modi’s vision of India?

您认为这些抗议是否具有超越对经济和教育体系挫败感的意识形态成分?您提到了 R.S.S. 以及对其行动的反弹,但您是否在这些抗议中看到了对莫迪的印度愿景的反对?

I think it’s a real mixed bag, but there is at least one strong ideological component to the protest, which is that it is the left-wing student unions that actually shaped this protest in the early days. Think about the C.J.P. Let’s remember, it’s not a party, it’s not a movement—it’s one kid who started a meme page, and managed to get more than twenty-two million followers out of nowhere, and then decided to do something with it. So it doesn’t have that organizational strength; it is not a bunch of people who have done this before, and so that heft came from left-wing student organizations. Right from the beginning, you had the most prominent left-wing student organizations pretty much build the movement, in terms of providing organizational support. These students also went on a hunger strike, by the way.

我认为这确实是一个大杂烩,但抗议中至少有一个强烈的意识形态成分,那就是左翼学生组织在早期实际上塑造了这场抗议。想想 C.J.P.。我们要记住,它不是一个政党,也不是一场运动——它是一个孩子创办了一个表情包页面,不知怎么地就获得了超过两千两百万粉丝,然后决定用它做点什么。所以,它没有那种组织力量;这不是一群以前做过这种事的人,因此,那种分量来自左翼学生组织。从一开始,最著名的左翼学生组织就通过提供组织支持,几乎构建了这场运动。顺便说一句,这些学生也进行了绝食抗议。

So part of it is simply because the left is there, and they’re very clear that they’re against the R.S.S. and B.J.P. However, I think the students who joined the movement, I wouldn’t say that all of them were anti-B.J.P. You know, like I said, some of them just cared about exams. Some of them were just upset about the state of democracy, asking, “Why aren’t we allowed to protest?” The protest also actually included a lot of working-class labor—you know, masons, plumbers, carpenters from Uttar Pradesh, from Rajasthan—who had joined the demonstrations but had a completely different set of problems than the students, mainly that it is getting difficult to sustain themselves with the money that they’re making.

所以,部分原因仅仅是因为左翼在那里,而且他们非常明确地反对 R.S.S. 和印人党。然而,我认为加入这场运动的学生,我不会说他们都是反印人党的。你知道,就像我说的,他们中的一些人只关心考试。他们中的一些人只是对民主的状况感到不安,问道:“为什么不允许我们抗议?”抗议实际上还包括了很多工人阶级劳动者——你知道,来自北方邦、拉贾斯坦邦的泥瓦匠、水管工、木匠——他们加入了示威,但面临的问题与学生完全不同,主要是靠他们挣的钱越来越难以维持生计。

And then I think the most interesting grouping was the reel-makers, who were just there to have fun. It became like a cultural space, a sort of a festival, where everyone could come in, a safe space where you could say whatever you wanted to, you could dress up the way you wanted to, without being moral-policed. So there was also this component of revelry.

然后,我认为最有趣的群体是那些短视频制作者,他们只是来玩的。它变成了一个文化空间,有点像节日,每个人都可以进来,一个安全的空间,你可以说任何你想说的话,你可以按你想要的方式穿着打扮,而不会受到道德警察的管束。所以,也有这种狂欢的成分。

Where do you see these protests going?

您认为这些抗议活动会走向何方?

I’m not sure if the C.J.P. has it in them to turn this into a political movement against Modi. This protest was unique in the sense that education unites everyone. And these protests were unique and strange in the way that they operated, too. If you went to a protest site, there was a stage where you had the C.J.P. protesters talking, and then you had the whole protest space. Most people weren’t even looking at the stage, and they were in their own little bubbles and cocoons, doing their own thing. So, in one way, they weren’t really looking at a leader or for a definitive path that a leader would show them, whether it’s anti-Modi or not. Instead, I think it was really a spontaneous coming together of people who were dissatisfied with multiple things. So that proves there’s dissatisfaction.

我不确定 C.J.P. 是否有能力将其转变为一场反对莫迪的政治运动。这次抗议的独特之处在于,教育能团结所有人。这些抗议的运作方式也独特而奇特。如果你去一个抗议现场,那里有一个舞台,C.J.P. 的抗议者在上面讲话,然后你有一整片抗议空间。大多数人甚至都不看舞台,他们待在自己的小圈子和茧房里,做着自己的事情。所以,从某种意义上说,他们并没有真正在寻找一个领袖,或者一个领袖会指明的明确道路,无论是反莫迪还是其他什么。相反,我认为这真的是一次对多种事情不满的人们的自发聚集。所以,这证明了不满情绪的存在。

But ultimately the opposition has to harness this dissatisfaction. I don’t think the C.J.P., as an actual party structure, can jump in and win an election, because right now they are, like, a handful of people, you know? It’s a lot of Instagram followers. But it’s not an organization in that typical sense. It’s very different from anything else we’ve seen in India.

但最终,反对党必须利用这种不满情绪。我不认为 C.J.P.,作为一个实际的政党结构,能够投入选举并赢得胜利,因为现在他们只是,你知道,一小撮人?有很多 Instagram 粉丝。但它不是传统意义上的组织。它与我们在印度见过的任何其他东西都非常不同。

Moreover, the B.J.P. have shown themselves to be fast learners. They are very aware of the fact that so many people were able to assemble together and so freely abuse Modi, and that the government will react with a very strong attempt at curbing social media. Because the news about the protests trickled out of digital-media platforms, I’m expecting harsher laws for all of us in the digital news space. I’m expecting more control on social media. Already, a lot of the posts from the protest itself have been pulled down from Instagram and X, and I would expect more of that.

此外,印人党已经证明他们学得很快。他们非常清楚这样一个事实:这么多人能够聚集在一起,如此随意地辱骂莫迪,政府将会以非常强硬的试图来控制社交媒体作为回应。因为关于抗议的消息是从数字媒体平台流出的,我预计我们所有数字新闻领域的人都会面临更严苛的法律。我预计社交媒体会受到更多控制。抗议活动本身的很多帖子已经被从 Instagram 和 X 平台上撤下,我预计会有更多这样的情况。

Politically, I think the protests should certainly energize the opposition, because this means that there are enough people upset with Modi and they are looking for options, so, if the opposition can come in and provide a vision of an alternative, I think it’s good for them. But I still don’t know where it goes. Education was this umbrella issue because it was a safe issue for everyone to come together on, you know? It wasn’t about identities, and it wasn’t about how Muslims are treated in the country. I’m not sure if hundreds of thousands of people will pour down into the streets because they want a secular country. I’m not sure if hundreds of thousands of people will take to the streets because they feel democracy is threatened in India. But given the economic situation caused by the war in the Middle East, and that we’ve also had a bad monsoon, which means it’s a bad year for crops, there’s going to be a lot of distress, urban and rural. So you’re going to see a lot of these flash points ahead. ♦

政治上,我认为抗议活动肯定会激励反对党,因为这意味着有足够多的人对莫迪感到不满,并且他们正在寻找选择,所以,如果反对党能够介入并提供一个替代愿景,我认为这对他们有好处。但我仍然不知道它会走向何方。教育之所以能成为一个总括性议题,是因为它是一个对所有人来说都安全的议题,大家可以聚在一起,你知道吗?它不关乎身份认同,也不关乎穆斯林在这个国家如何被对待。我不确定是否会有成千上万的人因为想要一个世俗国家而涌上街头。我不确定是否会有成千上万的人因为他们觉得印度的民主受到威胁而走上街头。但是,考虑到中东战争造成的经济形势,以及我们今年也遭遇了糟糕的季风,这意味着对庄稼来说是个坏年头,城市和农村都将面临很大的困境。所以,你将会在未来看到很多这样的爆发点。♦

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