The Political Scene

The Rise of the Epstein Democrat

爱泼斯坦式民主党人的崛起
In demanding the release of the Epstein files, the Party has embraced a radically new way of fighting Donald Trump. Is it a good idea?
在要求公开爱泼斯坦文件的过程中,该党采纳了一种全新的方式来对抗唐纳德·特朗普。这是个好主意吗?
April 24, 2026
A collage featuring images of Jeffrey Epstein Ro Khanna and Pam Bondi.
Illustration by Jared Bartman; Source photographs from Getty

In February, 2019, the Democrat-led House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform organized a hearing with a star witness they thought would shine a light on the sprawling nexus of scandal engulfing Donald Trump’s first Administration. That witness was Michael Cohen, Trump’s former fixer, who had already pleaded guilty to orchestrating hush-money payments to two women with whom Trump had allegedly had affairs, and to misleading Congress about the extent of Trump’s involvement in talks to erect a building in Moscow with his name on it. Democratic leaders were wary of treading on the toes of Robert Mueller, the special counsel investigating Trump’s ties to Russia, but nonetheless hoped that Cohen’s testimony would be Watergate-level explosive. In the end, Cohen did not come armed with hard proof of Russian collusion but did present documentation linking Trump directly to the hush-money payments. Ro Khanna, a Democratic member of the committee, described this as a “smoking gun,” one that demonstrated Trump was, at minimum, guilty of “garden-variety financial fraud.”

2019年2月,由民主党主导的众议院监督与政府改革委员会组织了一场听证会,他们请来一位重磅证人,期望此人能照亮笼罩唐纳德·特朗普首届政府的丑闻网络。这位证人是迈克尔·科恩,特朗普的前任"摆平人"。他已承认策划向两名据称与特朗普有染的女性支付封口费,并就特朗普参与莫斯科以他名字命名的大楼谈判的程度误导国会。民主党领导层虽担心越界干预特别检察官罗伯特·穆勒对特朗普与俄罗斯关系的调查,但仍希望科恩的证词能像水门事件那样具有爆炸性。最终,科恩并未拿出俄罗斯勾结的确凿证据,但确实提交了将特朗普直接与封口费支付联系起来的文件。委员会民主党成员罗·卡纳称此为"铁证",至少表明特朗普犯有"普通金融欺诈"的罪行。

At the hearing, Khanna was seated next to Stacey Plaskett, a non-voting Democratic delegate from the U.S. Virgin Islands; when it was her turn to question Cohen, she asked which other former Trump staffers the committee should haul in. Plaskett took input on that line of inquiry from Jeffrey Epstein—the financier who had been convicted of soliciting sex from a minor a decade before—with whom she was texting during the hearing. “Hes opened the door to questions re who are the other henchmen at trump org,” Epstein wrote, of Cohen. He also told Plaskett, “You look great.” Within months, Epstein would be dead in jail, following his arrest on charges of prolific child sex trafficking. That we now know about his exchanges with Plaskett is thanks to the Oversight Committee, which, last year, released tranches of files that it procured from Epstein’s estate. Meanwhile, Khanna worked with the gadfly Republican congressman Thomas Massie on a bill that would force Trump’s second-term Justice Department to make public all the Epstein documents in its possession, with minimal redactions. Trump—who had a long, if not provably criminal, relationship with Epstein and spent last summer railing against Democrats for perpetuating an Epstein “hoax”—finally caved, signing the measure into law. (The D.O.J. was later accused of withholding, before eventually posting, pages detailing allegations that Trump himself sexually abused a minor in the eighties, a claim that he has vehemently denied. Plaskett, for her part, has acknowledged that texting with Epstein was a “bad idea” but argued that, as a former prosecutor, she has “learned to receive information from sources I do not like to obtain information that helps me get to the truth.”)

在听证会上,卡纳坐在来自美属维尔京群岛的无投票权民主党代表史黛西·普拉斯基特(Stacey Plaskett)旁边;轮到她对科恩提问时,她询问委员会还应传唤哪些特朗普的前幕僚。普拉斯基特就这一调查方向征求了杰弗里·爱泼斯坦(Jeffrey Epstein)的意见——这位金融家十年前曾因向未成年人招嫖而被定罪——她在听证会期间一直与爱泼斯坦互发短信。爱泼斯坦在谈到科恩时写道:"他打开了通往问题的大门,即特朗普组织中还有哪些走狗。"他还告诉普拉斯基特:"你看起来棒极了。"几个月后,爱泼斯坦因被指控大规模贩卖儿童性交易而被捕,随后死于狱中。我们现在能知道他与普拉斯基特的往来信息,要归功于监督委员会,该委员会去年公布了从爱泼斯坦遗产中获取的多批文件。与此同时,卡纳与爱管闲事的共和党众议员托马斯·马西(Thomas Massie)合作提出了一项法案,要求特朗普第二任期的司法部公开其掌握的所有爱泼斯坦文件,且仅做最低限度的删减。特朗普——他与爱泼斯坦有着长期(尽管无法证明是犯罪性质)的关系,去年夏天还曾抨击民主党人散布爱泼斯坦"骗局"——最终妥协,签署了这项法案使之成为法律。(司法部后来被指控隐瞒了详细描述特朗普本人在八十年代性侵未成年人的指控文件,之后才予以公布,特朗普对此坚决否认。至于普拉斯基特,她承认与爱泼斯坦发短信是个"坏主意",但辩称,作为前检察官,她"学会了从我不喜欢的消息来源获取信息,以帮助我接近真相。")

The contents of the files have embarrassed Democrats as much as Republicans; in addition to Plaskett, they have cast a deeply unflattering (if, again, not necessarily criminal) light on the behavior of Bill Clinton, in addition to other former officials, aides, and donors. Khanna’s centrality to such a crusade isn’t a surprise, if only because of his career-long commitment to idiosyncrasy: he is a Bernie Sanders acolyte who represents Silicon Valley in Congress and has been described as an “ambassador” for the tech industry; J. D. Vance and Steve Bannon have praised him (even if Vance sometimes finds him “very annoying”); he preaches bipartisanship, then practices it—not by building consensus around managerial centrism, per the stultifying Beltway credo, but by allying with hard-core right-wing ideologues, including, on the Epstein files, the likes of Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene. Khanna would perhaps be the candidate most likely to win the 2028 Democratic Presidential primary, for which he definitely seems to be preparing himself, if only MAGA Republicans could vote in it. (Recently, he called for the assembly of a populist coalition of left and right, and Greene tentatively endorsed the idea.) He has said that there are “two different frames for me”—progressive coalition-builder or rank opportunist—proving that he is both politically unusual and unusually savvy about how he is portrayed in the media, where he is, as the old saw goes, unavoidable for comment.

这些文件的内容让民主党人和共和党人同样难堪;除了普拉斯基特之外,它们还对比尔·克林顿以及其他前官员、助手和捐赠者的行为描绘了一幅极为不利(尽管同样未必构成犯罪)的画面。卡纳成为这场讨伐的核心人物并不令人意外,这仅仅是因为他职业生涯中一贯的特立独行:他是伯尼·桑德斯的追随者,在国会代表硅谷,并被描述为科技行业的"大使";J·D·万斯和史蒂夫·班农都曾赞扬过他(尽管万斯有时觉得他"非常烦人");他宣扬两党合作,然后付诸实践——不是像令人窒息的华盛顿信条那样围绕管理型中间派建立共识,而是与极右翼意识形态者结盟,在爱泼斯坦文件问题上,包括马西和马乔里·泰勒·格林之流。如果只有MAGA共和党人能投票的话,卡纳或许会成为最有可能赢得2028年民主党总统初选的候选人——他显然正在为此做准备。(最近,他呼吁组建一个左翼和右翼的民粹主义联盟,格林对此表示初步支持。)他曾说,外界对他有"两种不同的定位"——进步派联盟建设者或彻头彻尾的机会主义者——这证明他既在政治上与众不同,又异常精明地了解媒体如何描绘他,而正如老话所说,他在媒体上总是不可避免地被要求发表评论。

What I do find surprising is how unifying a rallying cry “Release the Epstein files!” has become across Khanna’s party. Epstein’s crimes have long provoked bipartisan disgust, but their revival as a political concern in the second Trump Administration was initiated by right-wing conspiracy theorists adjacent to, if not soaked in, the broader QAnon belief that a cabal of liberal pedophiles controls the world. By the time Khanna and Massie’s bill came up for a vote, in November, only a single member of Congress voted against it, citing concerns about due process—and that was Representative Clay Higgins, a hard-right Republican. Earlier this year, nine Democrats on the Oversight Committee voted to recommend holding Clinton in criminal contempt of Congress as part of a push to question him about Epstein, and three likewise voted to do so for Hillary Clinton, even though she has no direct link to Epstein. (Khanna was not among the nine or the three; both Clintons avoided contempt proceedings by agreeing to be deposed in late February.) When Pam Bondi was ousted as Attorney General, top Democrats cited her mishandling of the files as among their primary grievances with her tenure, giving it comparable prominence to her (much more pressing) vengeance campaign against Trump’s perceived enemies. If the President’s Epstein stonewalling initially enraged his base, the issue is arguably now more animating for Democrats than for Republicans.

真正让我惊讶的是,“公开爱泼斯坦档案!”这一口号在卡纳所属的政党中竟能如此团结人心。爱泼斯坦的罪行长期以来引发两党共同的厌恶,但在特朗普第二任期内,它作为政治议题的复苏,却是由右翼阴谋论者发起的——这些人即便不是完全浸淫在更广泛的“匿名者Q”(QAnon)信仰中,也与之紧密相连,该信仰认为一个由自由派恋童癖者组成的阴谋集团控制着世界。到去年11月卡纳和马西提出的法案进行表决时,国会中只有一名议员因担心程序正义问题而投了反对票——那便是极右翼共和党众议员克莱·希金斯。今年早些时候,监督委员会的九名民主党人投票建议以藐视国会罪追究克林顿的刑事责任,作为推动就爱泼斯坦案质询他的一部分;同样,也有三名民主党人投票支持对希拉里·克林顿采取类似行动,尽管她与爱泼斯坦并无直接关联。(卡纳并不在这九人或三人之列;两位克林顿均同意在2月下旬接受庭外作证,从而避免了藐视法庭的程序。)当帕姆·邦迪被免去司法部长职务时,民主党高层将她对爱泼斯坦档案处理不当列为其任期内主要不满之一,其受关注程度甚至与她(更为紧迫的)对特朗普眼中敌人的报复行动相提并论。如果说总统对爱泼斯坦案的拖延最初激怒了他的基本盘,那么如今,这个问题对民主党的刺激恐怕已超过了对共和党的影响。

Khanna told me that Democratic voters are indeed animated by the plight of Epstein’s survivors, but, more than anything, he characterized his focus on the files as a matter of reaching across the aisle, calling it “the first time since Donald Trump came down the escalator that we actually engaged with the MAGA base about their frustrations and anger at the system, and said, ‘We want to partner with you instead of shaming you.’ ” Whatever the issue’s current valence among the electorate, that so many high-ranking Democrats have taken it up hints at a profound, if not yet fully realized, break with the Party’s politics dating back to that escalator ride, and perhaps further still. “For the past fifteen, twenty years, Democrats have become the party of protecting institutions, and standing up for the rule of law, and arguing for everyone to get a fair trial, for the legal system to work its process,” Caitlin Legacki, a Democratic strategist who served as a senior adviser to Gina Raimondo, Joe Biden’s Commerce Secretary, told me. Legacki has been struck by “the extent to which Democrats have been willing to embrace the idea that, if the American people wanna see the files, show ’em the files.”

卡纳告诉我,民主党选民确实对爱泼斯坦幸存者的遭遇感到愤慨,但更重要的是,他将自己关注这些文件的行为定性为跨越党派界限之举,称之为"自唐纳德·特朗普走下扶梯以来,我们第一次真正与MAGA基本盘接触,倾听他们对体制的愤怒与不满,并表示'我们想与你们合作,而不是羞辱你们'。"无论这个问题目前在选民中具有何种热度,如此多民主党高层人士对此予以关注,暗示着该党政治立场正发生深刻转变——这种转变或许尚未完全成形,但可追溯至那次扶梯事件,甚至更早。"过去十五到二十年间,民主党已成为捍卫体制、维护法治、主张人人享有公平审判、让司法体系按程序运作的政党,"曾担任拜登政府商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多高级顾问的民主党策略师凯特琳·莱加基告诉我。莱加基对"民主党人愿意接受这样一种理念的程度感到震惊:如果美国人民想看这些文件,那就给他们看。"

For Legacki, this approach carries a “huge risk”—of spewing out uncorroborated information, or tarring people with guilt by association—that is “a major departure from how politics in the U.S. has often operated” and also reflects “a breakdown of trust in institutions, on both sides.” I agree entirely. Given the scale of Epstein’s crimes, highlighting due-process concerns can feel small-bore, or even like apologism. Yet they are important not only to the Epstein saga itself but to a much bigger, and still unresolved, debate over the direction of the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been seen as defending the institutions that Trump has trashed. “I flipped the script,” Khanna told me. But what does the new script say? And what if portions of the old one are worth keeping?

对于莱加茨基而言,这种做法承载着"巨大风险"——可能散播未经证实的信息,或通过关联性给人贴上罪名标签——这"与美国政治惯常运作方式大相径庭",也反映出"两派民众对体制信任的崩塌"。我完全认同。鉴于爱泼斯坦罪行之重,强调程序正义问题似乎显得格局狭隘,甚至像在为其开脱。然而这些问题不仅关乎爱泼斯坦事件本身,更牵涉一场更宏大且悬而未决的辩论——关于民主党的方向。该党历来被视为捍卫特朗普所践踏的体制。"我彻底改写了剧本,"卡纳告诉我。但新剧本究竟写着什么?倘若旧剧本的部分内容仍值得保留呢?

When the Epstein story flared last summer, there was nothing inevitable about the script flipping. Khanna told me that colleagues had warned him he would undermine his “serious brand” as an economic wonk by tying himself to a “crackpot” conspiracy theory; one anonymous lawmaker complained to Axios that “this whole thing is just such bulls**t.” The Democratic National Committee and Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority Leader, marshalled Epstein as a talking point, but in terms that left open the possibility that there was no grand conspiracy afoot and that Trump and his allies were merely reaping baseless nonsense they long ago sowed. Many Democrats initially dismissed what they saw as “QAnon nutty theories,” even as they recognized that they “really tripped up Republicans on their own stuff,” Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data consultant, told me. At the time, he likened Democrats harping on Epstein to the N.B.A. tactic of fouling Shaquille O’Neal because he struggled to score free throws—effective, perhaps, but a little unsavory.

去年夏天爱泼斯坦事件爆发时,剧本的翻转并非必然。卡纳告诉我,同事们曾警告他,与一个"疯子"阴谋论扯上关系,会损害他作为经济专家的"严肃品牌";一位匿名议员向Axios抱怨说,"整件事简直就是胡说八道。"民主党全国委员会和众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯将爱泼斯坦作为谈话要点,但措辞上留有余地,暗示可能并不存在什么大阴谋,特朗普及其盟友不过是在收割他们早已播下的无稽之谈。民主党数据顾问保罗·米切尔告诉我,许多民主党人最初将他们眼中的"QAnon疯癫理论"斥为无稽之谈,即便他们也承认这些理论"确实让共和党人自食其果"。当时,他将民主党人揪住爱泼斯坦不放的做法,比作NBA比赛中对沙奎尔·奥尼尔故意犯规的战术——因为他罚球命中率不高——这或许有效,但多少有些令人不齿。

For years, Democratic leaders had seemed wedded to procedural responses to Trump, and to the ideal that nobody is above the law, embodied most visibly by the Mueller probe, then Trump’s impeachments, then the criminal cases he faced after leaving office. During the first Trump term, the Democratic base thought of Mueller almost as a matinée idol—the ramrod-straight lawman come to restore order—and fans of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg put her face on tote bags. Does the fact that none of this was effective—at least in the sense that Trump hasn’t been driven from the political scene for good—suggest that Democrats should now fight dirtier? With the midterms approaching, certain primaries have reflected broader debates about whether the Party might consider cursing more, capitalizing tweets, going Dark Woke. In Texas, James Talarico, an almost cartoonishly pious seminarian, defeated Jasmine Crockett, a Congresswoman whose many controversies have included calling Greene “butch” and ejecting a reporter from a rally for, per a member of her staff, being “a top-notch hater.” In Maine, Graham Platner, a rough-hewn populist who had to cover up a Nazi tattoo, looks set to handily beat Janet Mills, the polished seventy-eight-year-old incumbent governor. (Platner has said that he did not know about the tattoo’s Nazi associations when he got it.)

多年来,民主党领导人似乎一直固守着对特朗普的程序性回应,以及"无人凌驾于法律之上"的理想——这一理念最鲜明地体现在穆勒调查、随后的特朗普弹劾案,以及他离任后所面临的刑事案件中。在特朗普首个任期内,民主党基本盘几乎将穆勒视为偶像——那位挺身而出、恢复秩序的刚正不阿的执法者——而鲁斯·巴德·金斯伯格大法官的崇拜者则将她的面孔印在手提袋上。这一切都未能奏效——至少未能让特朗普永远退出政治舞台——这是否意味着民主党现在应该采取更肮脏的手段?随着中期选举临近,某些初选已反映出更广泛的辩论:民主党是否应考虑更多咒骂、利用推文煽动、走向"黑暗觉醒"?在得克萨斯州,近乎漫画般虔诚的神学院学生詹姆斯·塔拉里科击败了众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特——后者诸多争议包括称格林为"男人婆",以及据其工作人员称,因一名记者是"顶级黑粉"而将其驱逐出集会。在缅因州,粗犷民粹主义者格雷厄姆·普拉特纳——他不得不遮盖纳粹纹身——似乎将轻松击败现年七十八岁、举止优雅的现任州长珍妮特·米尔斯。(普拉特纳称,他纹身时并不知道其与纳粹的关联。)

Epstein is hardly the only issue that these and other Democrats are talking about. But the story line has become unusually sticky—a noteworthy feat under a President who floods the zone with so many outrages that it can sometimes be hard to remember last week’s scandals. (Even Trump’s genocidal threats against Iran didn’t wipe Epstein from the news cycle for long—and not just thanks to Melania Trump’s apropos of nothing-to-hide-with-regard-to-Jeffrey-Epstein press conference.) More notable still, perhaps, is the fact that calling for the release of the Epstein files has seemed to cut across the myriad divisions rending the Democratic Party. Crockett, who serves on the Oversight Committee, has been a vigorous inquisitor regarding Trump’s ties to Epstein, sparring memorably with Bondi on the matter, and warning the President that “we are going to be on his ass.” Even the mild-mannered Talarico has said that QAnon got “one big thing” wrong—the belief that Trump would dismantle “this secret pedophile ring when he’s right in the middle of it.” When the Oversight Committee deposed Hillary Clinton, she cast her subpoena as part of a D.O.J. coverup, saying, “I would like to know, like every other American deserves to know, what is in those files.” Asked whether she thought Epstein might have been a spy, she said that she didn’t know, but that it’s “absolutely essential” the committee find out.

爱泼斯坦远非这些民主党人及其他人士讨论的唯一议题。但这条故事线却异常顽固——在一位总统不断制造如此多的丑闻,以至于有时人们很难记住上周的丑闻的情况下,这可谓一项值得注意的成就。(就连特朗普对伊朗的种族灭绝威胁也没有让爱泼斯坦从新闻周期中消失太久——这不仅仅是因为梅拉尼娅·特朗普那场关于杰弗里·爱泼斯坦毫无隐瞒的新闻发布会。)或许更值得注意的是,要求公开爱泼斯坦档案的呼声似乎跨越了撕裂民主党的诸多分歧。担任监督委员会成员的克罗克特一直积极调查特朗普与爱泼斯坦的关系,她与邦迪就此问题进行了令人难忘的交锋,并警告总统“我们会盯紧他”。就连温和的塔拉里科也说过,QAnon在“一件大事”上搞错了——即认为特朗普会“在身处这个秘密恋童癖团伙中心时将其摧毁”。当监督委员会对希拉里·克林顿进行取证时,她将自己的传票视为司法部掩盖行为的一部分,并表示:“我想知道,就像每个美国人都应该知道的那样,那些文件里到底有什么。”当被问及她是否认为爱泼斯坦可能是间谍时,她说她不知道,但委员会“绝对有必要”查明真相。

It is possible to see the Party’s Epstein energy as less of a script-flipping than a natural evolution. Some Democrats I interviewed, including Pat Dennis, the president of the Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century, insisted that they’ve been concerned about Epstein for years; Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, has claimed that he pushed for the release of the files in 2019, following Epstein’s arrest. (Though the “Epstein files” didn’t really exist as a unified political concept back then, Schumer did call for clarity with respect to Epstein’s lenient 2008 prosecution—and gave away sums that Epstein had donated to his past campaigns.) More broadly, Democrats’ current Epstein rhetoric could be said to echo the righteous fury that they expressed at the height of the #MeToo movement, during Trump’s first term. Less charitable observers, especially on the right, might cast it as the latest iteration of a years-long effort to smear Trump. (Schumer and others have certainly used the story to troll the President, calling him “Epstein Don” and asking, for instance, whether Epstein was “THE REAL REASON TRUMP HAD KIMMEL CANCELED?!,” exemplifying the extraordinarily annoying Democratic tic of interpreting everything Trump does as an attempt to distract from the files.) Dennis pointed out to me that the “cliché Resistance libs” who seized on the Mueller story are now seizing on the Epstein story, because they tend to “glom on” to whatever is prominently in the news.

可以将民主党对爱泼斯坦事件的关注,视为一种自然演变而非立场翻转。我采访的一些民主党人,包括民主党超级政治行动委员会"美国桥梁21世纪"主席帕特·丹尼斯(Pat Dennis),坚称他们多年来一直关注爱泼斯坦案;参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)声称,他在2019年爱泼斯坦被捕后曾推动公开相关文件。(尽管当时"爱泼斯坦文件"尚未成为统一的政治概念,但舒默确实呼吁澄清爱泼斯坦2008年从轻起诉的缘由——并公开了爱泼斯坦曾向其过往竞选活动捐款的金额。)更广泛地说,民主党当前对爱泼斯坦的言论,可视为他们在特朗普首个任期#MeToo运动高潮时表达的正义愤怒的延续。而较不宽容的观察者,尤其是右翼人士,可能会将其视为多年来抹黑特朗普的最新版本。(舒默等人确实利用此事戏弄总统,称其为"爱泼斯坦唐",并质问例如"特朗普取消吉米·坎摩尔节目是否因为爱泼斯坦?!"——这典型体现了民主党令人极其厌烦的思维定式:将特朗普的一切行为都解读为转移文件注意力的企图。)丹尼斯向我指出,那些曾抓住"通俄门"报道不放的"陈词滥调的抵抗派自由派",如今又抓住爱泼斯坦事件,因为他们倾向于"紧盯"任何重大新闻热点。

I think that there are elements of truth to all these views. But, as the story has developed, the Democratic response has increasingly suggested less patience for the process-oriented guardrails of Trump 1.0. Mitchell told me that, once the files started to be released, lawmakers who might initially have been reluctant to take up the issue were, “like, ‘Wait, what?!’ ” (“I don’t know if this is a never-ending buffet of crime and pedophilia,” Mitchell added. “But it is something that Democrats are looking at and realizing that there’s just a lot more there than they ever expected.”) Recently, Democrats in Congress helped to force the resignation of the California representative Eric Swalwell, just days after he was accused of raping a staffer (a claim he denies)—an outcome that they likely would have sought prior to this Epstein moment but not, perhaps, with such lightning speed, and without waiting for the House Committee on Ethics or a court to weigh in first. In the aftermath of Swalwell’s departure, Summer Lee, a progressive congresswoman, told the Intercept that the Epstein story has exposed how deeply the existing mechanisms for seeking justice “are failing us—all while protecting perpetrators with money, connections, or status. That legacy demands more from all of us right now.”

我认为这些观点都包含部分真相。但随着事态发展,民主党方面的反应愈发显示出对特朗普1.0时期程序性护栏的耐心正在消减。米切尔告诉我,当文件开始陆续公开后,那些最初可能不愿介入此事的议员们纷纷"像这样:'等等,什么?!'"("我不知道这是否是永无止境的犯罪与恋童癖自助餐,"米切尔补充道,"但民主党人正在审视此事,意识到其中的内幕远超他们此前的预期。")最近,国会民主党人协助迫使加州众议员埃里克·斯沃韦尔(Eric Swalwell)辞职——就在他被指控强奸一名工作人员(他否认这一指控)几天之后。在爱泼斯坦事件爆发前,他们或许也会寻求这样的结果,但未必会以如此闪电般的速度推进,也不会在等待众议院道德委员会或法院先行裁决之前就采取行动。斯沃韦尔离职后,进步派女议员萨默·李(Summer Lee)对The Intercept表示,爱泼斯坦事件暴露了现有寻求正义的机制在多大程度上"辜负了我们——同时却在庇护那些有钱、有势或有地位的作恶者。这份遗产要求我们所有人此刻必须做得更多。"

The liberal discourse that surrounded the Mueller probe was hardly free of the conspiratorial or the crude—I’m sorry to have to bring the alleged Trump pee tape back to your attention—but the probe itself, and Democrats’ faith in it, was broadly rooted in the idea that the legal system could hold Trump to account. If those were the days of Mueller as matinée idol, what I and others liked to call the Mueller-industrial complex of legal pundits filled the prime-time hours by nerding out over D.O.J. arcana and prosecutorial procedure.

围绕穆勒调查的自由派言论,并非全然摆脱了阴谋论或粗鄙色彩——很抱歉不得不再次提起那卷所谓的特朗普“尿碟”——但调查本身,以及民主党人对它的信任,大体上植根于一个信念:法律体系能让特朗普承担责任。如果说那是穆勒作为日场偶像的时代,那么我和其他人喜欢称之为“穆勒产业复合体”的法律专家们,则通过痴迷地钻研司法部秘辛和检控程序,填满了黄金时段的节目。

Mueller veneration—and the wider invocation of “norms” that defined this era of liberal commentary—was often toe-curling, and turned out to be naïve. But norms themselves aren’t all bad, and, as the Epstein-files story has unfolded, I’ve fretted about those which have been overridden: most centrally, the standard D.O.J. aversion to publishing millions of scarcely vetted documents in which the vast majority of people named haven’t been charged with a crime, and are, in many cases, victims, witnesses, or bystanders. The risks of this—in a case linked inextricably to fantastical thinking, in a country with a political-violence problem—have always seemed obvious to me, and being concerned about them doesn’t have to mean making excuses for the very rich people whose stomach-churning (if, again, mostly noncriminal) conduct has been exposed. Democracies have other ways of holding such people to account. Good journalism, for starters, involves careful vetting, and has been a prime mover of the wider Epstein saga.

对穆勒的崇拜——以及定义这一自由派评论时代的对“规范”的广泛援引——常常令人尴尬,最终也被证明是天真的。但规范本身并非全无益处,随着爱泼斯坦文件事件的展开,我一直担忧那些被践踏的规范:最核心的是,司法部通常不愿发布数百万份未经严格审查的文件,其中绝大多数被点名者并未被指控犯罪,而且在许多情况下,他们是受害者、证人或旁观者。在一个与幻想思维密不可分的案件中,在一个存在政治暴力问题的国家里,这种做法的风险在我看来一直显而易见,而对此表示担忧并不意味着要为那些极其富有的人找借口——他们的令人作呕(尽管再次强调,大多不构成犯罪)的行为已被曝光。民主国家有其他方式让这些人承担责任。首先,优秀的新闻报道涉及严格的审查,并且一直是爱泼斯坦事件更广泛叙事的推动力。

Even if you believe, as I do, that cheering on this sort of mass disclosure of sensitive material represents a quietly radical break from the Democrats’ Mueller-era posture, it would be wrong to say that the Party has abandoned proceduralism altogether, including in its Epstein-files push. At least one progressive strategist believes that, on Epstein, the Party has been overly process-oriented, and it’s true that the Oversight Committee, a body that trades in hearings and depositions, has become the hub of the action. Lee, the progressive congresswoman, serves on that committee, where she was one of the three Democrats to recommend holding Hillary Clinton in contempt. She has cast this vote in institutionalist terms, arguing that she was seeking to protect the legitimacy of the committee’s subpoena power, even if this particular subpoena was an example of G.O.P. “weaponization.” Khanna has argued that he doesn’t generally support changing D.O.J. norms surrounding disclosure and sees the Epstein case as a unique exception.

即便你和我一样,认为对这种大规模敏感材料披露的欢呼,代表着民主党从穆勒时代立场的悄然激进转变,但要说该党已完全放弃程序主义——包括在推动爱泼斯坦文件一事上——也是错误的。至少有一位进步派战略家认为,在爱泼斯坦问题上,该党过于注重程序;确实,以听证会和取证为运作核心的监督委员会(Oversight Committee)已成为行动的中心。进步派女众议员李(Lee)是该委员会成员,她是建议裁定希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)藐视法庭的三位民主党人之一。她以制度主义者的立场投下这一票,辩称自己是在维护委员会传唤权的合法性,即便这次特定传唤是共和党“武器化”的一个例子。卡纳(Khanna)则主张,他通常不支持改变司法部(D.O.J.)关于披露的规范,并认为爱泼斯坦案是一个独特的例外。

But Khanna’s reasoning—essentially, that the intense public interest in the files demands transparency and that the American public can be trusted to be judicious with unverified claims therein—is not very convincing. If anything, great public pressure being brought to bear is a terrible reason to dispense with due-process protections designed to protect the legal rights of individuals, and crafting one exception would seem to create a precedent for crafting others. Khanna put to me a somewhat stronger argument: that, in this case, the demand for disclosure had to work its way through the legislative process. “That’s the check,” he said. “It’s very, very, very hard to pass a law.”

但卡纳的推理——本质上认为公众对这些档案的强烈兴趣要求透明化,且美国公众能够审慎对待其中未经证实的说法——并不令人信服。若要说有什么问题,巨大的公众压力恰恰是放弃正当程序保护(旨在维护个人法律权利)的糟糕理由,而破例一次似乎会为后续破例开创先例。卡纳向我提出了一个稍强的论点:在此案中,公开的要求必须通过立法程序推进。"这就是制衡机制,"他说,"要通过一项法律非常、非常、非常困难。"

This is true, now more than ever, but even a sclerotic Congress is susceptible to public passions. The release of the Epstein files hasn’t yet led anyone to, say, take a gun into a D.C.-area pizza parlor to confront a Clinton-led pedophile ring, but it has inevitably fanned conspiracies online (some of them very pizza-y) and exposed information that should clearly have remained private, including explicit images, and details identifying both survivors who’d wished to remain anonymous and incarcerated people who apparently coöperated with federal prosecutors. The D.O.J. was required by Khanna and Massie’s law to protect victims’ privacy, and the department is, of course, primarily responsible for failures to do so. And yet, at least as a practical matter, the tight timeline that the law imposed on the D.O.J., and that body’s manifest Trump-era incompetence, made such errors utterly foreseeable. In February, Khanna went on the House floor and named six supposed co-conspirators of Epstein’s whose identities, he felt, had wrongly been redacted in the files. The Guardian subsequently reported that four of the men had no connection to Epstein’s case whatsoever, beyond having appeared in a photo lineup. Khanna has maintained that a D.O.J. mistake was to blame, though he thanked the Guardian for pointing out his error, and stressed that he quickly corrected himself online. (More recently, he concluded that “you don’t want members of Congress just naming people in the Epstein files without any context.”)

此言非虚,如今尤甚。然而,即便僵化如国会,也难免受公众情绪左右。爱泼斯坦文件(Epstein files)的公布,尚未引发有人持枪闯入华盛顿特区某披萨店、对抗克林顿领导的恋童癖团伙之类事件,却不可避免地助长了网络阴谋论(其中一些与披萨店颇有渊源),并泄露了本应保密的信息,包括露骨图像,以及希望匿名的幸存者和显然与联邦检察官合作的在押人员的身份细节。根据卡纳(Khanna)和马西(Massie)推动的法律,司法部(D.O.J.)有责任保护受害者隐私,而该部门对未能履行这一职责负有主要责任。然而,至少在现实层面,法律强加给司法部的紧迫时限,以及该机构在特朗普时代暴露出的明显无能,使得此类错误完全可预见。今年二月,卡纳在众议院发言,点名了六名他认为是爱泼斯坦同谋的人,称其身份在文件中被不当隐去。《卫报》(The Guardian)随后报道,其中四人与爱泼斯坦案毫无关联,只是曾出现在照片辨认队列中。卡纳坚称这是司法部的错误所致,不过他也感谢《卫报》指出他的失误,并强调自己很快在网上更正了说法。(最近,他得出结论:“你不希望国会议员在毫无背景的情况下,随意点名爱泼斯坦文件中的人。”)

Khanna has said that he doesn’t “want pitchforks”—not “even against people who are billionaires”—and, over all, it’s untenable to characterize the release of the Epstein files as a witch hunt, owing to the very real grotesqueries therein. And more may yet emerge: although the D.O.J. has put out millions of files, Khanna and his colleagues have accused it of withholding, or excessively redacting, millions more. (This week, the department’s inspector general said that it was reviewing whether the law had been followed.) At least for now, however, it’s possible to reach several conclusions simultaneously: that the number of powerful people whom the files have painted in a bad light is shockingly high; that the odds of criminal accountability for most of those people currently seem slim; that the available files don’t offer proof of a widespread child-sex-trafficking conspiracy in any case; and that using them to make broad claims about predation by élites is a clear example of availability bias, given that the vast majority of powerful people aren’t meaningfully implicated in them. Much Democratic rhetoric has elided the nuances of these concurrent truths. This, too, represents an intriguing shift in the Party’s Trump-era approach—even if this one might not be as radical as it first appears.

卡纳表示,他“不想要干草叉”——“即使是对亿万富翁们”——而且,总体而言,将爱泼斯坦文件的公布定性为政治迫害是站不住脚的,因为其中确实存在令人发指的丑恶行径。更多内容可能还会浮出水面:尽管司法部已公布了数百万份文件,但卡纳及其同僚指责该部门隐瞒了更多文件,或对它们进行了过度删节。(本周,该部门的监察长表示,正在审查相关法律是否得到遵守。)不过,至少就目前而言,可以同时得出几个结论:这些文件所揭露的权贵丑闻数量高得惊人;目前看来,其中大多数人被追究刑事责任的可能性似乎微乎其微;现有文件并未提供任何证据证明存在大规模的儿童性贩卖阴谋;而利用这些文件对精英阶层的掠夺行为做出宽泛指控,显然是可得性启发(availability bias)的典型例证,因为绝大多数权贵并未被这些文件实质性地牵连其中。许多民主党人的言论模糊了这些并行真相的细微差别。这也代表了该党在特朗普时代策略上的一个有趣转变——尽管这一转变或许并不像初看起来那么激进。

For certain Democrats, the Epstein saga has long been a way into talking about other topics, or at least to reëstablishing the trust needed to earn a hearing. Khanna has said that the Epstein-files story is symbolic of a rigged system that people are furious about and that Democrats won’t be able to use government to execute their priorities—in Khanna’s case, a vision of renewal that he has defined, variously, as “progressive capitalism” and “economic patriotism”—until they acknowledge that anger. Indeed, he claimed, last summer, that the Epstein files constituted “the beginning of the rebirth of the Democratic Party as a populist party.” More recently, he and others have started talking about an “Epstein class.”

对某些民主党人而言,爱泼斯坦事件早已成为切入其他议题的途径,或至少是重建对话所需信任的契机。卡纳曾表示,爱泼斯坦文件事件象征着民众愤怒的舞弊体制,而民主党人若不正视这种愤怒,便无法借助政府推行其优先事项——就卡纳而言,他定义的复兴愿景时而称为"进步资本主义",时而称为"经济爱国主义"。事实上,去年夏天他声称爱泼斯坦文件构成了"民主党作为民粹主义政党重生的开端"。最近,他与其他人开始谈论起"爱泼斯坦阶层"。

This is a pithy label, but what exactly it invokes is unclear or, at least, mutable; at times, it seems to blur into the idea of the élite, writ large, and yet Khanna has specified that it refers only to a subsection that has engaged in “heinous” acts. Political shorthand needn’t always be precise to be resonant, but the stakes for Khanna’s politics, in particular, feel significant, given that he represents Silicon Valley. He has recently drawn an apparently billionaire-backed primary challenge after supporting a wealth tax, but since his election, in 2016, he has attempted to build bridges between tech tycoons and the disenfranchised working class in the name of wealth creation and rejected the progressive slogan that “every billionaire is a policy failure.” Khanna told me, “If you are a business leader . . . committed to the rebuilding of America, to investment in the working class, then we want you on our side.” But if you are “extracting” wealth, and using the resultant power and status to evade justice, then “we need to call you out.”

这个标签言简意赅,但它具体指代什么却并不明确,或者说至少是可变的;有时,它似乎与“精英”这个概念模糊地混为一谈,但卡纳又明确指出,它仅指那些从事“令人发指”行为的特定群体。政治上的简略表述不必总是精准才能引发共鸣,但考虑到卡纳代表硅谷,他的政治立场尤其显得意义重大。最近,他在支持征收财富税后,似乎引发了一场由亿万富翁支持的初选挑战。但自2016年当选以来,他一直试图以创造财富为名,在科技巨头与被剥夺权利的工人阶级之间搭建桥梁,并拒绝了“每个亿万富翁都是政策失败”这一进步派口号。卡纳告诉我:“如果你是商业领袖……致力于重建美国、投资工人阶级,那么我们希望你能站在我们这边。”但如果你是在“榨取”财富,并利用由此获得的权力和地位来逃避正义,那么“我们就必须点名批评你”。

Many billionaires who are extracting wealth, however, do not appear in the Epstein files, and the implication that they might be part of an Epstein “class” strikes me, perversely, as both an unfair taint and somehow letting them off the hook; the files certainly do demonstrate élite impunity, but, at some point, focussing on them risks putting a face on corruption that is cartoonishly, personally evil, rather than structural. The Epstein-files story gaining purchase across the ideological breadth of the Democratic Party may represent a departure, but its embrace by even corporate Democrats suggests that, as a populist rallying cry, it may only be inch-deep. Objecting to the invocation of an “Epstein class” can feel dissatisfyingly close to crying, “Not all billionaires!” But what if it’s an impediment to a more substantive message for the Democratic Party: “Yes, all billionaires!”?

然而,许多正在攫取财富的亿万富翁并未出现在爱泼斯坦文件中,而暗示他们可能属于某个“爱泼斯坦阶层”的说法,在我看来既是一种不公正的污名,又莫名其妙地让他们逃脱了责任;这些文件确实展现了精英阶层的免罚特权,但若过度聚焦于此,反而可能将腐败描绘成一种漫画式的、个人化的邪恶,而非结构性问题。爱泼斯坦文件的故事在民主党内跨越意识形态光谱获得认同,或许代表了一种转向,但就连企业派民主党人也对其表示接纳,这暗示着它作为民粹主义口号,可能只是浅尝辄止。反对“爱泼斯坦阶层”的提法,听起来难免像在喊“不是所有亿万富翁都这样!”——这令人沮丧。但若这反而阻碍了民主党传递更有实质意义的信息呢?比如:“没错,所有亿万富翁都这样!”

Last year, before the Epstein-files story blew up, Khanna wrote that the country was at a “fork in the road.” The Democrats, he continued, would need to offer transformational change or watch it “continue to succumb to a burn-it-all-down political nihilism.” Perhaps the latter must be indulged a bit to build a platform for the former—forests sometimes need to burn in order to thrive. But what happens if the Epstein-files story razes the entire forest, torching whatever trust is left in the political establishment, the Democratic Party very much included? Releasing the files, at least, is not a burn any politician can control. The idea that transparency offers a route to closure is already proving illusory. If it no longer feels quite right to refer to the Epstein-files story as a conspiracy theory, given what the documents have revealed, it remains of that world in the sense that, whatever new truths are unveiled, those who go down the rabbit hole will always be tempted to go further.

去年,在爱泼斯坦文件事件爆发之前,卡纳曾写道,这个国家正站在"岔路口"。他接着指出,民主党人必须提供变革性的改变,否则就只能眼睁睁看着国家"继续陷入一种'烧光一切'的政治虚无主义"。或许,为了给前者搭建平台,后者需要被稍稍纵容——森林有时需要燃烧才能焕发生机。但如果爱泼斯坦文件事件将整片森林夷为平地,烧毁人们对政治体制(包括民主党在内)仅存的信任,那又会怎样?至少,公布文件这件事并非任何政客所能掌控的"火势"。认为透明能带来终结的想法,已被证明是虚幻的。如果说,鉴于文件所揭露的内容,再称爱泼斯坦文件事件为阴谋论已不太恰当,那么它仍属于那个世界——无论有多少新真相被揭开,那些深陷其中的人总会忍不住想走得更远。

Perhaps the most consequential conundrum for Democrats is the one Legacki mentioned to me: that the wider Democratic interest in the Epstein-files story appears, in part, to channel liberal voters’ disenchantment with the institutions that not only failed to protect Epstein’s victims but didn’t act as a brake on Trump, either. Voters of both parties “don’t trust the processes we have for accountability,” Lee, the progressive congresswoman, told me. “The American people do not think that our institutions, our leaders, can be self-governing. I don’t think that they’re wrong.” Some Democrats doubtless see this moment as an opportunity to put tired, ultimately ineffectual talk of “norms” and “democracy” behind them; those more minded to rebuild institutions on the scorched earth of Trumpism are already having to reckon with the fact that a return to normalcy doesn’t seem possible and that much of their base may not want it anyway. Mitchell, the data consultant, told me that, in some ways, the Epstein-files story “rhymes” with last year’s redistricting initiative in California, in which Mitchell played a central role. Initially, liberal voters weren’t expected to approve the suspension of anti-gerrymandering rules as a means of countering the G.O.P.’s dirty tricks in other states; in the end, the suspension easily won. (This week, voters in Virginia approved a similar measure, though the margin was finer.) It’s an “open question,” Mitchell said, whether Democrats will “return to our better angels” upon eventually regaining power or “instead say, basically, for lack of a better term, ‘fuck this.’ ”

对民主党而言,最棘手的困境或许正是莱加基向我提及的那一点:民主党选民对爱泼斯坦文件事件的广泛关注,在某种程度上折射出他们对体制的幻灭——这些体制不仅未能保护爱泼斯坦的受害者,也未能对特朗普形成制衡。进步派众议员李告诉我,两党选民"都不信任我们现有的问责机制。美国人民认为我们的体制和领导人无法自我约束。我觉得他们的看法没错。"一些民主党人无疑将此视为一个契机,可以抛却那些陈腐且最终徒劳的"规范"与"民主"说辞;而那些更倾向于在特朗普主义留下的焦土上重建体制的人,则不得不面对一个现实:回归常态似乎已无可能,而且他们的基本盘中有相当一部分人可能根本不希望如此。数据顾问米切尔告诉我,从某些角度看,爱泼斯坦文件事件与去年加州重新划分选区的举措"如出一辙",而米切尔在那次行动中扮演了关键角色。起初,人们并不认为自由派选民会支持暂停反选区划分不公(anti-gerrymandering)规则,以此作为对抗共和党在其他州耍弄肮脏手段的策略;但最终,这项暂停措施轻松通过。(本周,弗吉尼亚州的选民也通过了类似措施,尽管优势较为微弱。)米切尔说,民主党人最终重掌权力后,是会"回归我们更善良的天性",还是会"说白了,就是'去他妈的'",这仍是一个"悬而未决的问题"。

For now, nothing is settled, and the Party hasn’t totally shed its old skin. In anticipation of regaining the House in the midterms, lawmakers on the Oversight Committee, for example, are preparing to intensify probes regarding not only Epstein—they plan, for one, to call in Trump, claiming that the recent Bill Clinton subpoena set a new precedent with respect to Presidential testimony—but other aspects of Trump’s corruption that would sound more familiar to those who followed the battles of his first term.

眼下,一切尚未尘埃落定,共和党也尚未彻底脱胎换骨。例如,为迎接中期选举中重夺众议院,监督委员会的议员们正筹备加大调查力度——不仅针对爱泼斯坦案(他们计划传唤特朗普,声称近期对比尔·克林顿的传唤开创了总统作证的新先例),还将涉及特朗普任内其他腐败问题,这些对关注其首个任期斗争的人来说更为耳熟能详。

Last month, Khanna appeared on the radio show “The Breakfast Club,” where he was asked what he considered to be the bigger failure of Merrick Garland, who served as Biden’s Attorney General: not prioritizing the Epstein files or not successfully prosecuting Trump. Without hesitation, Khanna picked the latter, then said that Kamala Harris would have been more effective as Attorney General, citing her fierce committee appearances as a senator during Trump’s first term. “When we get power again, I’m all for reconciliation, I’m all for bringing the country together, but we cannot move on without accountability,” Khanna said. He listed people who will need to be prosecuted: the agents who killed Alex Pretti in Minnesota, the DOGE wrecking crew, officials who committed war crimes. And, he added, “the Epstein class.” ♦

上个月,卡纳(Khanna)做客广播节目《早餐俱乐部》(The Breakfast Club)。当被问及在担任拜登政府司法部长的梅里克·加兰德(Merrick Garland)任内,哪件事更算失败——是未优先处理爱泼斯坦(Epstein)案卷宗,还是未能成功起诉特朗普(Trump)——卡纳毫不犹豫地选择了后者。随后他表示,如果由卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)担任司法部长,她会更有效率,并援引她在特朗普首个任期担任参议员时在委员会上咄咄逼人的表现作为例证。“当我们再次掌权时,我完全支持和解,支持国家团结,但我们不能在没有问责的情况下继续前行,”卡纳说道。他列举了需要被起诉的人员名单:在明尼苏达州杀害亚历克斯·普雷蒂(Alex Pretti)的特工、DOGE破坏小组、犯下战争罪的官员。此外,他补充道,“还有爱泼斯坦之流。”♦

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