The Political Scene

The MAGA Faithful Eye the Exits

MAGA信徒们瞄向出口
With polls suggesting a bleak midterms for the G.O.P., Trumpworld in D.C. is girding itself for congressional subpoenas and preparing pardon requests.
民调显示中期选举对共和党而言前景黯淡,华盛顿的特朗普圈子正为国会传票做准备,同时也在准备赦免申请。
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Illustration by Pete Gamlen

There are fourteen hundred and sixty-one days in a Presidency. When I met a former White House official for coffee last week, he kept mentioning this number. It had been drilled into his brain during a training he had attended, at a conservative think tank, sometime before joining the Administration. “In the early days, you go really hard, really fast—you know, get rid of U.S.A.I.D., stuff like that,” he said. “The great purge.” We were in a sitting room at the St. Regis Hotel, in downtown D.C. He’d recently returned to the private sector, and that afternoon he fell into reminiscing about the “halcyon days,” as he put it, at the start of Donald Trump’s second term: “Getting the January 6th prisoners out; the DOGE kids kicking in the doors at the Institute of Peace; withdrawing from all these globalist organizations.” He reached out to try to kill a mosquito with his hand. “That was early energy,” he said. “We’ve lost a little bit of our initial vibe. But not everyday can be a dramatic showdown.”

一届总统任期有一千四百六十一天。上周我与一位前白宫官员喝咖啡时,他反复提到这个数字。这个数字是在他加入政府之前,在某个保守派智库参加的一次培训中刻进他脑子里的。“早期阶段,你干得特别猛、特别快——你知道,砍掉美国国际开发署,诸如此类,”他说。“大清洗。”我们坐在华盛顿市中心圣瑞吉斯酒店的一间起居室里。他最近刚回到私营部门,那天下午他陷入了对唐纳德·特朗普第二任期初期那些“黄金岁月”的追忆——用他自己的话说:“把一月六号的囚犯放出来;DOGE那帮小子踹开和平研究所的大门;退出所有这些全球主义组织。”他伸手试图拍死一只蚊子。“那是早期的劲头,”他说。“我们丢掉了一点最初的状态。但不可能每天都是戏剧性对决。”

This stage of the Presidency, he went on, was for a different kind of work: “competent government officials” enacting “five hundred tweaks the conservative agenda has wanted for years.” I told him that, to an outside observer, it might seem like the early bombast had continued: just that week, the Administration had ordered a raid of the Democratic congresswoman Ilhan Omar’s Washington home and was contemplating live-streaming a public execution; Trump was on Air Force One with Mike Tyson. But the ex-official wasn’t the only one to speak longingly about a bygone phase. “Those first couple months—holy shit. We were locked in,” a current Trump staffer told me. “In the tome of this Presidential era, it’s like we’re in the hangover now.”

他说,总统任期的这个阶段,要做的是另一种工作:“称职的政府官员”推行“保守派议程渴望多年的五百项微调”。我告诉他,在外界观察者看来,早期的喧嚣似乎还在继续:就在那一周,政府下令突袭了民主党众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔在华盛顿的住所,还在考虑直播一场公开处决;特朗普和迈克·泰森一起在空军一号上。但怀念逝去阶段的远不止这位前官员一人。“头几个月——我的天。我们全神贯注,”一位现任特朗普幕僚对我说。“在这段总统时代的编年史里,我们现在就像处于宿醉阶段。”

I’d met this staffer early in 2025, when it seemed like everyone around him in Washington was trying to find a way into the Administration. These days, he told me, you networked to find a way out, or at least away from certain corners. Positions in the executive agency where he worked were still highly regarded, and he found himself besieged by those trying to leave departments that would taint them by association. “I’ve never had so many men come up to talk to me at parties,” he said. “People from D.H.S. are practically handing me their résumés.” When I met a senior Administration official for lunch the other day, she admitted that she might not be able to hang on much longer. “I’m so bored and turned off,” she said. “But I don’t remember what anything else is like.” Not long ago, Trump’s takeover had seemed so complete that she spoke about it in almost revolutionary terms. Now, she said, “if the Democrats win, we’re going to get spammed with all these subpoenas that distract us from our jobs and keep us from getting anything done.”

我是在2025年初认识这位幕僚的,当时华盛顿他身边所有人似乎都在想办法挤进政府。他告诉我,如今你搞人脉是为了找退路,或者至少是远离某些角落。他所在的行政机构职位仍然备受推崇,他发现自己被那些想离开会连累自己的部门的人围追堵截。“我这辈子从来没有那么多男人在派对上主动过来跟我搭话,”他说。“国土安全部的人简直是在把简历往我手里塞。”前几天我和一位政府高级官员吃午饭时,她承认自己可能撑不了太久了。“我太无聊了,完全提不起劲,”她说。“但我已经不记得别的生活是什么样子了。”不久前,特朗普的接管看起来如此彻底,以至于她几乎用革命性的语言来谈论它。如今,她说,“如果民主党赢了,我们会被一大堆传票淹没,让我们没法专心工作,什么都干不成。”

In September, the President hosted a midterm convention at the American Airlines Center, in Dallas, seemingly to remind everyone that the Trump show would go on. But cracks in the façade had been forming for some time. When I asked a staffer with the Republican National Committee about the first day’s schedule, the mask slipped for a moment. “It runs from three to ten, depending on how long-winded one of the speakers is,” she said, clearly referring to Trump. Some of the core cast members of the MAGA road show had dropped off the tour. A man who calls himself the Retribution Pastor, a reliable fixture at such events, told me that he no longer bothered to come. “This incompetent Administration is not what I worked so hard for,” he said. I watched a speech by Dr. Oz, who runs the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, from a jumbotron outside the arena. “Politics is very similar to surgery,” he said. “Except it’s much bloodier, and we don’t use anesthesia.” He told the crowd that the only difference between this moment and the last time they’d all gathered—at the Republican National Convention in 2024, which anointed Trump in the aftermath of the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania—was that people looked more “gazelle-like” now that everyone was on Ozempic. This was all thanks, as Oz put it, to TrumpRx, a new prescription-drug website that the Administration had rolled out. That night, Trump spoke for two hours, promising everyone five thousand dollars if Republicans kept control of the House and the Senate.

九月,总统在达拉斯的美航中心举办了一场中期选举大会,似乎是为了提醒所有人特朗普秀还会继续。但外表之下的裂痕已经形成了一段时间。当我向一位共和党全国委员会的职员询问第一天的日程时,面具滑落了一瞬。“从三点开到十点,取决于其中一位演讲者有多啰嗦,”她说,显然指的是特朗普。MAGA巡回秀的一些核心演员已经退出了巡演。一个自称“报应牧师”的人——这类活动的固定面孔——告诉我他已经懒得来了。“这个无能的政府不是我拼命奋斗想要的结果,”他说。我在场馆外的大屏幕上看了奥兹医生的演讲,他负责管理联邦医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心。“政治和外科手术非常相似,”他说。“只不过血腥得多,而且我们不用麻醉。”他对人群说,此刻与上次大家聚在一起时——2024年共和党全国代表大会,在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒暗杀未遂事件之后为特朗普加冕——唯一的区别是,现在所有人都吃上了奥兹匹克,看起来更像“羚羊”了。奥兹说,这一切都要归功于TrumpRx,这是政府推出的一个新处方药网站。那天晚上,特朗普讲了两个小时,承诺如果共和党保住参众两院的控制权,就给每个人五千美元。

Later, I ran into some MAGA types I hadn’t seen since the Inauguration, when they’d been gloating about their takeover. “I’m going to Argentina,” a Trump-aligned influencer told me, ducking out of an afternoon panel in a suburban strip mall. “Like, moving there. We’re all going to be indicted. Anyone who was ever close to this is going to be targeted. They’re going to come after us even if our fingerprints aren’t on anything.”

后来,我碰到了一些自就职典礼以来就没见过的MAGA人士,当时他们还在为接管政府而洋洋得意。“我要去阿根廷了,”一位与特朗普结盟的网红告诉我,他正从郊区一个购物中心里的下午场小组讨论中溜出来。“就是,搬过去。我们全都会被起诉。任何跟这件事沾过边的人都会成为目标。就算我们的指纹不在任何东西上,他们也会来追我们。”

As the weeks went on, a pro-Trump super PAC sent out increasingly melodramatic fund-raising e-mails, warning that the end might be near. “Do not make me say goodbye,” one subject line read. A photo of the President waving from the door of a train was captioned “Farewell to Trump.” He was reportedly flirting with the idea of granting preëmptive pardons to all his White House aides. According to the Wall Street Journal, members of the Administration, “from cabinet secretaries to midlevel staffers,” were hunting for lawyers. The Front Row Joes, a group of Trump’s most loyal superfans who dutifully attended every single rally, told interviewers that they were “heartbroken” about how the term had panned out. House Speaker Mike Johnson was musing about going home, to Louisiana, to start a lawn company.

随着时间一周周过去,一个支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会发出了越来越戏剧化的筹款邮件,警告末日可能将至。“别逼我说再见,”一封邮件主题写道。一张总统在火车门口挥手的照片配文是“告别特朗普”。据报道,他正在考虑给所有白宫助手发放预防性赦免。据《华尔街日报》报道,政府成员“从内阁部长到中层职员”都在找律师。“前排乔帮”——一群特朗普最忠实的超级粉丝,曾尽职尽责地参加每一场集会——对采访者说,他们对这一任期的发展感到“心碎”。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊在考虑回路易斯安那州老家,开一家草坪公司。

In mid-October, I had lunch with a senior official who was waiting to be confirmed for a major role in the Administration. He’d already had a bruising hearing in committee, but his floor vote in the Senate hadn’t happened yet. “If we lose, I probably won’t get confirmed, and they’ll haul us in front of the TV cameras,” he said. At this point, he wasn’t sure that his pre-government job would take him back. He told me that his interest in Trump started at a rally in 2016. “There was a guy next to me with no feet,” he said. “He lost them in Afghanistan. I liked what Trump said about no more wars.” A friend had called him early in the morning after the President announced the start of the military campaign in Iran. “He just kept saying, ‘We’re fucked,’ ” the official told me. “It’s a complete betrayal.” He went on, “I don’t think it will be a mark of Cain to have worked in this Administration, but I think we’re all ready for this to be over.”

十月中旬,我和一位正在等待确认担任政府要职的高级官员共进午餐。他已经在委员会经历了一场惨烈的听证,但参议院全院投票还没进行。“如果我们输了,我大概就确认不了了,他们会把我们拖到电视镜头前,”他说。此刻,他不确定自己入阁前的工作单位还愿不愿意要他。他告诉我,他对特朗普的兴趣始于2016年的一场集会。“我旁边有个没有脚的人,”他说。“他在阿富汗失去了双脚。我喜欢特朗普说的不再打仗那些话。”在总统宣布对伊朗军事行动开始后的清晨,一个朋友给他打来电话。“他只是一直说,‘我们完了,’”这位官员告诉我。“这是彻底的背叛。”他接着说,“我不认为在这届政府工作过会成为该隐的印记,但我觉得我们都准备好让这一切结束了。”

Others insisted that it was only the beginning. “I know a top adviser who was offered a seven-figure salary to leave the Administration,” the former White House official told me. “He’s not taking that because he’s confident we will win, in the ultimate sense.” A strategist who used to work for the President maintained that Trump was not winding down but ramping up. “We’re already in a brave new world, and the next two years will be on hyperdrive,” she said. How many times, she asked me, had we all lived through predictions that Trump was finished? Trump was going to complete an epochal realignment, she said, a “big reset” encompassing everything from “rebuilding Gaza in the image of whatever the heck he wants” to “making sure cryptocurrency gets anchored in.” Some of the true believers I knew had faded out of these conversations, and were focussed on the future. Ahead of the midterms, a group of them left Washington to attend a four-part lecture series given by Peter Thiel, who cautioned that the next President might be the Antichrist.

另一些人坚称这才刚刚开始。“我认识一位高级顾问,有人给他开出七位数年薪让他离开政府,”那位前白宫官员告诉我。“他不接受,因为他相信我们会赢,从终极意义上说。”一位曾为总统工作的策略师坚称,特朗普不是在收尾,而是在加速。“我们已经身处美丽新世界,未来两年将是超速运转,”她说。她问我,我们多少次经历过特朗普完蛋了的预言?她说,特朗普将完成一场划时代的重组,一次“大重置”,涵盖从“按照他想要的任何样子重建加沙”到“确保加密货币扎根落地”的一切。我认识的一些真信者已经从这些对话中淡出,专注于未来。中期选举前夕,他们中的一群人离开华盛顿,去参加彼得·蒂尔主讲的四场系列讲座,蒂尔告诫说下一任总统可能是敌基督。

One autumn evening, I went to the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium, a grand space for black-tie soirées and weddings on the National Mall. The treaty establishing NATO was signed there, in 1949. At the top of a staircase, photographers were waiting to capture the entrance of Javier Milei, Argentina’s President and the evening’s guest of honor, for an event called the Official Hispanic Heritage Gala. Inside, on a makeshift red carpet, reporters were gathered around Eduardo Bolsonaro, the brother of Flávio, the (since defeated) right-wing Brazilian Presidential candidate. Matt Schlapp, the chairman of CPAC, wandered around with a drink. After the first Trump Administration, he’d mainly been in the headlines following accusations of unwanted groping by a male staffer and several other associates. (He denies them.) I watched Paolo Zampolli, Trump’s special envoy for global partnerships, make his way to the red carpet. Zampolli got to know Trump at the Kit Kat Club, in New York, back when he was a modelling scout visiting from Milan. He came over to give me a copy of his business card—just his first name, underneath a golden governmental seal—and then started to role-play being questioned in a congressional hearing. “Mr. Zampolli, did you buy the plane? How much was the plane?” he said, in a fake-serious voice, mimicking a Democratic member of Congress. He was referencing how he had made enthusiastic use of his diplomatic position to promote Boeing sales. (“Whenever people see me, they want something—they want access to the President,” as he put it on one podcast. “I tell them, ‘Buy Boeing.’ ”) He switched into playing himself, responding to the Democrat. “Yes, I bought the plane. It was a big plane, a beautiful plane,” he said, nodding in an exaggeratedly sombre manner. “I admit it! I make great deals for the American people!”

一个秋夜,我去了安德鲁·W·梅隆礼堂,这是国家广场上一座举办黑领结晚会和婚礼的宏伟建筑。1949年,建立北约的条约就是在这里签署的。在楼梯顶端,摄影师们正等着捕捉哈维尔·米莱——阿根廷总统、当晚的贵宾——入场,参加一场名为“官方西班牙裔传统庆典”的活动。里面,在一条临时铺设的红毯上,记者们围在爱德华多·博索纳罗身边,他是弗拉维奥的兄弟,弗拉维奥是(此后已落败的)巴西右翼总统候选人。CPAC主席马特·施拉普端着酒杯四处走动。在特朗普第一任期之后,他上头条主要是因为被一名男性职员及其他几位同事指控不当抚摸。(他否认这些指控。)我看着特朗普的全球伙伴关系特使保罗·赞波利走向红毯。赞波利是在纽约的Kit Kat俱乐部认识特朗普的,当时他还是从米兰来的模特星探。他走过来递给我一张名片——只有他的名字,下面是一个金色政府徽章——然后开始角色扮演国会听证会上的质询。“赞波利先生,你买飞机了吗?飞机多少钱?”他用假装严肃的声音说,模仿一位民主党国会议员。他指的是自己如何热情地利用外交职位来推销波音飞机。(“每当人们看到我,他们就想要点什么——他们想接触总统,”他在一档播客中这样说。“我告诉他们,‘买波音。’”)他切换成扮演自己,回应那位民主党人。“是的,我买了飞机。那是一架大飞机,一架漂亮的飞机,”他说,以一种夸张严肃的样子点着头。“我承认!我为美国人民做了了不起的交易!”

We entered the auditorium, where the tables were half empty. (Congress had been adjourned until after the midterms, leaving a void of typical networkers.) A large mockup of a limited edition one-dollar gold coin with Trump’s face on it was positioned to the left of the stage, where a speaker was saying, “We’re here to kick the butt of the socialists.”

我们进入礼堂,桌子有一半是空的。(国会已经休会到中期选举之后,留下了一片惯常社交者的真空。)舞台左侧摆放着一枚限量版一美元金币的大型模型,上面有特朗普的脸,一位演讲者正在说:“我们来这里是为了踢社会主义者的屁股。”

Zampolli had been in the news that day—leaked e-mails revealed that he had been chastised by Deputy Secretary of State Chris Landau for all the off-the-books meetings he had been setting up with foreign governments. (Landau had instructed Zampolli to stay in his narrow lane of “cultural diplomacy.”) Since I’d last seen Zampolli, a couple of months before, he’d also been accused of rape, which he denies. He told me that he didn’t care about the midterms. “I just get things done, make money,” he said. “All they do is attack us, and it’s getting worse. Look what happened to poor Kimberly.” Kimberly Guilfoyle, the Ambassador to Greece and former fiancée of Trump’s son Don, Jr., had just been asked to resign after messages showed her pressuring a G.O.P. donor to pay her hundred-thousand-dollar Amex bill in exchange for access to Trump. “Honey please,” Guilfoyle had implored. (She has suggested that the messages were fabricated.) Milei was onstage giving a long speech in Spanish. We were joined by the U.S. Treasurer, Brandon Beach, who had supervised the creation of the Trump dollar coin at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, and a young man who said that he’d met Zampolli in the diplomatic-passport line at an airport. “I spent the whole summer in Bedminster with Barron,” the man said. He and Zampolli compared watches. Zampolli showed me his, a Cartier that he had encrusted in diamonds. “Just because it’s aftermarket doesn’t mean it’s fake,” he told me, holding out his wrist so I could take a picture.

赞波利那天上了新闻——泄露的邮件显示,他因为与外国政府安排的大量非正式会面而遭到副国务卿克里斯·兰道的训斥。(兰道指示赞波利待在他“文化外交”的狭窄轨道内。)自从我几个月前最后一次见到赞波利以来,他还被指控强奸,他否认这一指控。他告诉我他不在乎中期选举。“我就是把事情办成,赚钱,”他说。“他们只会攻击我们,而且越来越糟。看看可怜的金伯利遭遇了什么。”金伯利·吉尔福伊尔,驻希腊大使、特朗普之子小唐纳德的前未婚妻,刚刚被要求辞职,此前有信息显示她向一位共和党捐款人施压,要求对方支付她十万美元的运通卡账单,以换取接触特朗普的机会。“亲爱的,求你了,”吉尔福伊尔曾这样恳求。(她暗示这些信息是伪造的。)米莱在台上用西班牙语发表长篇演讲。美国财政部长布兰登·比奇加入了我们,他曾在雕刻与印刷局监督特朗普美元硬币的制作,还有一位年轻人说他在机场的外交护照通道认识了赞波利。“我整个夏天都和巴伦在贝德明斯特度过,”那人说。他和赞波利比较了手表。赞波利给我看了他的表,一块镶满钻石的卡地亚。“后镶钻不代表是假的,”他告诉我,伸出手腕让我拍照。

Every day, it seemed, Trump was announcing the dawn of a new golden age. In October, he showed up at an Anduril event in a Baltimore shipyard to tell a group of assembled sailors that America was the hottest country in the world. The first beats of Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” started to play as Marine One came into view over the water. As the helicopter approached the dock, the song blasted, “No one’s gonna save you from the beast about to strike.” The chopper whirred; Jackson howled. Inside the shipyard, Alex Bruesewitz, a Trump adviser, was pacing a darkened hallway and talking on his phone as he awaited the arrival of several Baltimore Ravens players he’d invited to meet the President. “Trump made the Party culturally relevant,” he told me. “He’s actually able to reach across the barriers in terms of pop culture. Before him, the Republican Party was dead in that regard. He made the Party cooler, and then he also taught them how to fight.”

每一天,特朗普似乎都在宣布一个新的黄金时代的黎明。十月,他出现在巴尔的摩一个造船厂的安杜里尔活动上,对一群集合起来的水兵说美国是世界上最热门的国家。当海军陆战队一号出现在水面上空时,迈克尔·杰克逊的《颤栗》前奏开始响起。直升机接近码头时,歌声轰鸣:“没有人能把你从即将出击的野兽口中救出。”旋翼嗡嗡作响;杰克逊嚎叫着。在造船厂内,特朗普顾问亚历克斯·布鲁塞维茨在一条昏暗的走廊里踱步,一边打电话,一边等待他邀请来见总统的几位巴尔的摩乌鸦队球员。“特朗普让共和党在文化上变得有存在感了,”他对我说。“他真的能跨越流行文化方面的壁垒。在他之前,共和党在这方面是死的。他让共和党变酷了,然后他还教会了他们怎么打架。”

Despite the dismal polling, midterm rallies were a chance for Trump to relive the journey of 2024—what he called the greatest political comeback in history. Rallies during that campaign were often punctuated by medical emergencies in the audience. Trump would stop speaking while medics tended to whoever had gone down. Sometimes the crowd would sing or pray as the stretcher carried the person out. These days, the interruptions usually came from hecklers. “Hey, Bone Spurs—release the files!” one shouted. At a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, I met a couple of Bikers for Trump, a group of volunteers who have long cast themselves as Trump’s vigilante security force. “Wild Horses,” by the Rolling Stones, was thundering in the arena, so I asked if we could step outside to talk. They looked reluctant. “If there’s a fight, I want to be involved,” one said. He stood with his arms clasped, surveying the risers with the same posture as the private-security guys. Later, he sidled past me in Hoka sneakers and a leather jacket to offer his assistance to the Secret Service. Midway through the rally, a protester in the audience stood up to scream “Fascist,” and someone immediately starting punching her. They fought underneath a scoreboard that read “45–47.” Trump, looking on, called her “low class” and a “fat guy.” Another man put her in a headlock and pulled her to the ground, until a Biker for Trump, a cop, and one of the private-security guys joined the melee. After they dragged her out, they fist-bumped.

尽管民调惨淡,中期选举集会给了特朗普一个重温2024年征程的机会——他称之为历史上最伟大的政治逆袭。那次竞选期间的集会经常被观众中的医疗紧急情况打断。特朗普会停止讲话,让医护人员救治倒下的人。有时人群会在担架把人抬出去时唱歌或祈祷。如今,打断通常来自起哄者。“嘿,骨刺——公布文件!”一个人喊道。在俄亥俄州扬斯敦的一场集会上,我遇到了几位“支持特朗普的骑手”——一群长期自诩为特朗普义务保安队的志愿者。滚石乐队的《野马》在体育馆内轰鸣,所以我问能不能到外面谈谈。他们看起来不太情愿。“如果有架打,我想参与,”其中一人说。他双臂交叉站着,用和私人保安一样的姿态扫视着看台。后来,他穿着Hoka运动鞋和皮夹克从我身边侧身走过,去主动协助特勤局。集会进行到一半时,观众中一名抗议者站起来大喊“法西斯”,立刻有人开始打她。他们在一块写着“45–47”的记分牌下扭打。特朗普看着这一幕,称她“低贱”,还说她是个“胖子”。另一个男人用锁喉把她拽倒在地,直到一个支持特朗普的骑手、一个警察和一个私人保安也加入了混战。他们把她拖出去后,互相碰了碰拳头。

At some of the rallies, it felt like Trump was a champion in decline who had returned to the scene of his old glory. “Nobody appreciates me,” he repeated ten times one evening. Over and over again he invoked the golden age. “We’re right now in the golden age,” he said. “The golden age of America is upon us.” He flirted with renaming the Atlantic “Trump Ocean.” At one rally, he said, “I could say the stupidest things and you’d still clap.” His voice got hoarse from talking so much. “I’m a frickin’ genius,” he said, eighty minutes into an appearance in Arizona. “If I didn’t do ‘The Apprentice,’ would I be President now?” he mused, in Ohio. “They blame the people that put on the show.” He caught sight of a repeat attendee, a guy dressed in a border-wall costume, standing in the front row. “I think in my last speech, I’ll wear that,” the President said.

在一些集会上,感觉特朗普就像一位走下坡路的冠军,回到了昔日辉煌的现场。“没人感激我,”有天晚上他重复了十遍。他一遍又一遍地提起黄金时代。“我们现在就处于黄金时代,”他说。“美国的黄金时代已经来临。”他半开玩笑地想把大西洋改名为“特朗普洋”。在一场集会上,他说:“我可以说最蠢的话,你们还是会鼓掌。”他的声音因为说得太多而沙哑。“我是个他妈的天才,”在亚利桑那州一场露面进行到八十分钟时他说。“如果我没做《学徒》,我现在会是总统吗?”他在俄亥俄州沉思道。“他们责怪做节目的人。”他看到一个多次到场的观众,一个穿着边境墙服装站在前排的家伙。“我觉得我最后一场演讲时,会穿那件,”总统说。

Back in Washington, the Trump staffer asked me what it was like on the trail. “I’ve been thinking a lot about the Grateful Dead,” he told me, after I summarized a recent rally. “In the eighties, they got massive and they started playing stadiums—they would take over entire towns. But by the end of the decade it became a much darker scene, where the local criminality would come, sell all kinds of drugs, there’d be violence. A lot of the old Deadheads decided it was too dark.” Each time I saw this staffer, over the course of the past eighteen months, he had less and less contempt for the system he’d come into government wanting to destroy. “We’ve been through the fucking fire with Trump,” he told me. “I don’t want the Democrats to win, but I feel ready for some new programming.” Before joining the Administration, he had convinced himself that the 2020 election really was stolen from Trump. But he found himself irritated by the President’s recent warnings that the Democrats were trying to steal the midterms, too. “Before, it was a Trump-versus-the-world vibe,” he said. “The broader narrative of them stealing from us felt directionally true. We were dispossessed, and we were robbed of a Presidency. But now? We took over and we just kind of fucking botched it. The Democrats didn’t create some bullshit. We had a generational opportunity and we basically squandered it. Look at the coalition we had in 2024. Those people might not ever vote again in their lives.”

回到华盛顿,那位特朗普幕僚问我竞选路上的情况怎么样。“我最近想了很多关于感恩至死乐队的事,”在我概述了最近一场集会之后,他对我说。“八十年代,他们变得非常庞大,开始在体育场演出——他们会占领整个城镇。但到了那个年代末,现场变得阴暗得多,当地的犯罪分子会来,卖各种毒品,还有暴力。很多老死忠粉认定那太阴暗了。”在过去十八个月里,我每次见到这位幕僚,他对这个他进入政府时想要摧毁的体制的蔑视都在减少。“我们跟特朗普一起经历了该死的烈火考验,”他对我说。“我不想让民主党赢,但我感觉准备好换点新节目了。”在加入政府之前,他曾说服自己2020年大选确实是从特朗普手中偷走的。但他发现自己对总统最近警告民主党也在试图偷走中期选举感到恼火。“以前是一种特朗普对抗全世界的氛围,”他说。“他们从我们这里偷走东西的宏大叙事在方向上感觉是对的。我们被剥夺了,我们被抢走了一个总统任期。但现在呢?我们接管了,然后我们基本上把它搞砸了。民主党没有制造什么狗屁。我们有一个千载难逢的机会,而我们基本上浪费了。看看我们2024年拥有的联盟。那些人这辈子可能再也不会投票了。”

One of Trump’s latest rally bits was to talk about how much money he was raking in while voters deal with record-high prices. “So, we’re making hundreds and hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars,” he told a crowd in Georgia. “But my people said, ‘Please don’t mention that, sir, because people are paying a little higher.’ . . . But I said, ‘I don’t give a damn. I’m gonna say it. We’re making a freaking fortune.’ ” Corruption had emerged as the No. 1 issue for many voters, and examples of self-dealing were all over D.C. Democrats were announcing their “target list” for congressional investigations. “Washington is evil and godless and soulless,” an organizer at an event for Democratic candidates told the crowd. “But we’re sending so many people there. There’s finally going to be a moment when we can hold these creeps accountable.” The senior Administration official told me that the companies and business leaders who’d bent the knee to the President were now reconsidering their positions. “They’re testing out whether they can tiptoe back across the Rubicon,” the official told me. In the meantime, “they’re already preparing. They know they’ll have to testify.” The former White House official told me that he thought all the talk of investigations was overblown. “The stories of financial corruption are the left stringing together isolated cases into a narrative. President Trump has said he wants corrupt appointees prosecuted by the D.O.J.,” he said. “Probably about fifty people have clearly broken the law. They’re mongrel-species types doing Balkan-style corruption. They don’t have Wasp values. They don’t have names like William Heatherwick III. I know of probably ten really corrupt deals across twenty-five hundred political appointees. I can think of one person who should go to jail.”

特朗普最近的集会段子之一是谈论他在选民面对创纪录高物价时赚了多少钱。“所以,我们赚了成百上千亿,数万亿美元,”他在佐治亚州对人群说。“但我的人说,‘先生,请别提这个,因为人们付的价格有点高。’……但我说,‘我他妈才不在乎。我就要说。我们赚了一大笔。’”腐败已经成为许多选民心中的头号议题,而华盛顿到处都是自肥交易的例子。民主党人公布了国会调查的“目标名单”。“华盛顿是邪恶的、无神的、没有灵魂的,”一位民主党候选人活动上的组织者对人群说。“但我们派了那么多人去那里。终于要有一个时刻,我们可以让这些恶心的人承担责任了。”那位高级政府官员告诉我,曾向总统屈膝的公司和商界领袖现在正在重新考虑立场。“他们在试探能不能踮着脚尖退回卢比孔河对岸,”这位官员告诉我。与此同时,“他们已经在准备了。他们知道自己将不得不作证。”那位前白宫官员告诉我,他认为所有关于调查的谈论都被夸大了。“关于财务腐败的报道是左派把孤立案例串成一个叙事。特朗普总统说过,他希望司法部起诉腐败的任命官员,”他说。“大概有五十个人明显违法了。他们是杂种品种类型,搞的是巴尔干式腐败。他们没有WASP价值观。他们的名字不叫威廉·希瑟威克三世。在两千五百名政治任命官员中,我知道大概有十桩真正腐败的交易。我能想到一个人应该进监狱。”

That week, at a breakfast hosted near K Street, a chief of staff to a Democratic senator mused about the possibilities of a reinvigorated Congress. “Everyone wants to get their pound of flesh, but I hope we don’t spend too much on the investigations,” she said. “How much more do the American people want to hear about Don, Jr.?” We were drinking orange juice and coffee in a dark room that felt like a cocktail party happening very early in the morning. Upon entering, attendees were given markers so that they could fill out nametags labelled with their favorite A.I. chatbots to use at work. They pinned them up on a whiteboard. (Claude was the overwhelming winner.) The Senate staffer told me she was most curious about what would happen during what she called the “interregnum” between November’s elections and January’s swearing-in. “How much are Republicans going to dump on us in those months?” she asked. She also wondered how much the Senate would really accomplish, even if Democrats did control it. “Something like a third of the senators will be running for President, or the future Cabinet, so how will they balance doing the work with going out on the trail and trying to find a winning message?” And they would be besieged with lobbying as the private sector tried to realign itself. “Corporations will have to navigate cozying up to the new power, but they’ll also have to try to keep the President happy while he’s still in office,” she said. The strategist who used to work with Trump told me that she could continue to advance her clients’ priorities, no matter the result of the midterms. “You want to find the right partners on the Hill and get your stuff grafted in now so that there’s no Administration post-Trump that can ever undo it,” she said.

那一周,在K街附近举办的一场早餐会上,一位民主党参议员的幕僚长畅想了一个重振活力的国会的可能性。“每个人都想讨回自己那一磅肉,但我希望我们不要在调查上花太多时间,”她说。“美国人民还想听多少关于小唐纳德的事?”我们在一间昏暗的房间里喝着橙汁和咖啡,感觉就像一场发生在清晨的鸡尾酒会。入场时,与会者拿到马克笔,可以在名牌上写下自己在工作中最喜欢用的AI聊天机器人。他们把名牌钉在一块白板上。(Claude以压倒性优势胜出。)这位参议院幕僚告诉我,她最好奇的是在十一月选举和一月宣誓就职之间那段她称之为“空位期”会发生什么。“共和党在那几个月里会往我们身上倒多少垃圾?”她问。她还想知道,即使民主党真的控制了参议院,参议院到底能做成多少事。“大概有三分之一的参议员会去竞选总统,或者未来的内阁职位,所以他们怎么在做事和出去跑竞选、寻找制胜信息之间取得平衡?”而且随着私营部门试图重新站队,他们会被游说围攻。“企业将不得不在讨好新权力和让仍在任的总统满意之间周旋,”她说。那位曾与特朗普共事的策略师告诉我,无论中期选举结果如何,她都可以继续推进客户的优先事项。“你要在国会山上找到合适的合作伙伴,现在就把你的东西嫁接进去,这样以后任何一届后特朗普政府都无法撤销它,”她说。

Conversation at breakfast centered on artificial intelligence. “There’s basically six people deciding the future,” a consultant said, referring to the heads of the A.I. companies. “They’re the ones who make a difference. People want to meet Jensen Huang, not a senator.” For all the talk of a new era, a lot stays the same. At a cocktail party that evening, I ran into a defense operative who used to work for a European government. “I’m so busy,” he told me. He was now a fixer for one of the Gulf states. “I’m always busy. If only we could stop dropping bombs on everyone!”

早餐会上的谈话集中在人工智能上。“基本上有六个人在决定未来,”一位顾问说,指的是AI公司的负责人。“他们才是真正起作用的人。人们想见的是黄仁勋,不是参议员。”尽管所有人都在谈论新时代,很多东西还是老样子。那天晚上在一个鸡尾酒会上,我碰到了一位曾为某欧洲政府工作的防务掮客。“我太忙了,”他告诉我。他现在是某个海湾国家的掮客。“我总是很忙。要是我们能停止向所有人扔炸弹就好了!”

On a rainy Saturday night in October, Trump was hosting donors to his MAGA Inc. super PAC at a fund-raising dinner at Mar-a-Lago. Sergey Brin, a co-founder of Google, sat in the white-and-gold ballroom next to the President. In Washington, Zampolli, who had just been fired from the Administration, was hosting an after-party for a black-tie dinner at his Dupont Circle town house. Signs that read “National Guard: I want you to leave” were plastered around the neighborhood. When I walked into the vestibule, there were official portraits of Trump and Vance on the wall. Upstairs were framed photos of baby cheetahs and Hermès blankets thrown over all the couches. An Hermès ashtray sat on the table next to large plastic renderings of the number forty-seven, and piles of mixed nuts in a blue briefcase that read “UZBEKISTAN.” Women in floor-length sparkly gowns mingled with men in tuxes. It was one of the first cool evenings of the season. Nobody was on the outdoor patio. “All the criminals are inside,” a partygoer joked to me.

十月一个下雨的周六晚上,特朗普在海湖庄园为他的MAGA Inc.超级政治行动委员会举办捐款人筹款晚宴。谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林坐在白金色舞厅里,挨着总统。在华盛顿,刚刚被政府解雇的赞波利在他杜邦环岛的联排别墅里为一场黑领结晚宴举办余兴派对。社区里贴满了写着“国民警卫队:我希望你们离开”的标语。我走进门厅时,墙上是特朗普和万斯的官方肖像。楼上是小猎豹的裱框照片,所有沙发上都搭着爱马仕毯子。桌上放着一个爱马仕烟灰缸,旁边是数字四十七的大型塑料模型,还有一个蓝色公文包里装着什锦坚果,上面写着“乌兹别克斯坦”。穿着拖地闪亮长裙的女人们与穿燕尾服的男人们交际。这是本季最早的凉爽夜晚之一。户外露台上一个人都没有。“所有罪犯都在里面,”一位派对客人对我开玩笑说。

Near the buffet, a few people were looking at Polymarket bets on their phones. “I’m a patriot, so I’m betting on Republicans,” one said. I stood with a person close to the Administration, who told me that he had started telling his dreams to A.I. in the morning. He pulled out his phone to show me Claude’s four-act analysis of the previous evening’s anxiety reverie, featuring a cast of Administration officials. He said the most interesting part of life after the midterms would be watching the warring factions within Trump’s government try to take one another down. “I can’t wait to see everyone coöperating with the Democrats to try to send their enemies to jail,” he said. “It’s going to be chaos.” We were joined by a former Administration lawyer who told me that he was thinking of starting his own firm soon. There was going to be so much business, so many new clients. “He’s my friend who’s absolutely most likely to be indicted,” the person close to the Administration said a few minutes later, just after the lawyer walked over to another group. “When he was trying to get a job in the Administration, he said he would go away for five years for Trump. He called me back to say that, actually, he could only do three. The fact that he modified it so precisely makes me think he is actually serious.” ♦

在自助餐台附近,几个人在看手机上的Polymarket赌盘。“我是爱国者,所以我押共和党赢,”其中一人说。我和一位与政府关系密切的人站在一起,他告诉我他现在每天早上把自己的梦讲给AI听。他掏出手机给我看Claude对前一晚焦虑梦境所做的四幕分析,梦中出现了一众政府官员。他说中期选举之后生活中最有趣的部分,将是看着特朗普政府内部交战的派系试图互相搞垮对方。“我迫不及待想看到所有人跟民主党合作,试图把自己的敌人送进监狱,”他说。“那将会是一片混乱。”一位前政府律师加入了我们,他告诉我他正在考虑很快自己开律所。会有那么多业务,那么多新客户。“他是我朋友中绝对最有可能被起诉的一个,”那位与政府关系密切的人几分钟后说,就在那位律师走向另一群人之后。“当初他想在政府里谋个职位时,他说他愿意为特朗普坐五年牢。后来他打电话回来说,实际上,他只能做三年。他把数字修改得那么精确,这让我觉得他是认真的。” ♦

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