Q. & A.

The Israeli Ultra-Hawks Who Feel Betrayed by Trump’s Iran Deal

被特朗普伊朗协议背叛的以色列超级鹰派
Shimon Riklin, an anchor on the country’s right-wing Channel 14, and a Netanyahu ally, thinks America stabbed Israel in the back.
西蒙·里克林(Shimon Riklin),以色列右翼第十四频道的主播、内塔尼亚胡的盟友,认为美国在背后捅了以色列一刀。
Benjamin Netanyahu at a microphone.
Source photograph by Ronen Zvulun / AFP / Getty

On Friday, the United States and Iran plan to sign a memorandum of understanding that would, for the time being, end hostilities between the two countries. In exchange for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz—which was open before the war began—and agreeing not to develop nuclear weapons, the United States will end its blockade of Iran, end sanctions on the country, and help facilitate its reconstruction. The deal, which represents a remarkable climbdown by the Trump Administration, has been harshly criticized by both American hawks and Israelis across the political spectrum, who view it as more favorable to Iran than the 2015 nuclear deal that was negotiated by former President Barack Obama, and which was later torn up by Trump, during his first term. The current deal also presents real difficulties for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who encouraged Trump to start the conflict, and was planning to flaunt his closeness to Trump in his reëlection campaign later this year. (One poll taken after the announcement of a deal found Trump’s approval rating in Israel falling twenty points, to thirty-eight per cent.)

周五,美国与伊朗计划签署一份谅解备忘录,暂时结束两国间的敌对状态。伊朗将开放霍尔木兹海峡——这条海峡在战争爆发前本就是开放的——并承诺不发展核武器,作为交换,美国将结束对伊朗的封锁,取消对该国的制裁,并协助其重建。这份协议标志着特朗普政府一次显著的退让,遭到了美国鹰派和以色列各政治派别的严厉批评,他们认为这份协议比2015年由前总统巴拉克·奥巴马谈判达成、后来在特朗普第一任期内被他撕毁的核协议对伊朗更为有利。当前的协议也给以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡带来了切实的困境,正是他鼓励特朗普开启这场冲突,并计划在今年晚些时候的连任竞选中炫耀他与特朗普的亲密关系。(一份在协议宣布后进行的民调显示,特朗普在以色列的支持率下降了二十个百分点,跌至百分之三十八。)

I recently spoke by phone with Shimon Riklin, one of the anchors of Israel’s Channel 14, which is famous for its right-wing slant and strong pro-Netanyahu line. Riklin was long known for founding Israeli settlements; he eventually became a close ally of Netanyahu’s. He has condemned Trump’s Iran deal, calling it “total surrender.” During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why he believes that Trump betrayed Israel, his contention that Iran is the modern world’s Nazi Germany, and whether the war should ever have been undertaken in the first place.

我最近通过电话与西蒙·里克林进行了交谈,他是以色列第十四频道的主播之一,该频道以其右翼倾向和强烈支持内塔尼亚胡的路线而闻名。里克林长期以来以建立以色列定居点而知名;他最终成为了内塔尼亚胡的亲密盟友。他谴责了特朗普的伊朗协议,称其为“彻底投降”。在我们的谈话中——为篇幅和清晰度进行了编辑——我们讨论了他为何认为特朗普背叛了以色列,他关于伊朗是现代世界纳粹德国的论点,以及这场战争是否从一开始就不该发动。

How are you feeling about the emerging deal between the United States and Iran?

你对美伊之间即将达成的协议感觉如何?

Totally shook. Totally shook. Unacceptable. Amazing. Nobody understands this. Listen, we have a couple of reasons that Israel and America waged war against Iran. One was to prevent nuclear weapons. One was to prevent the development of missiles that could hit, in the future, not only Israel but also Europe and the United States. What Iran tried to do is encircle Israel with fire, with enemies. So there were a lot of reasons.

彻底震惊了。彻底震惊了。不可接受。令人惊愕。没人能理解这个。听着,以色列和美国对伊朗开战有几个理由。一是阻止核武器。二是阻止那些未来不仅能打到以色列,还能打到欧洲和美国的导弹的研发。伊朗试图用战火、用敌人来包围以色列。所以有很多理由。

But why did we go into the war if this is what Trump was going to give Iran?

但如果特朗普最终要给伊朗这些,我们当初为什么要开战?

It’s a good question.

这是个好问题。

Listen, we are really grateful, in Israel, for what Donald Trump did for Israel. He gives us a lot of weapons. He gives us space to fight, in terms of the political resistance we face in the world. And then he joins us in understanding the importance of the war against Iran. This is modern-day Germany, Nazi Germany. They are crazy! For us, Iran is Nazi Germany. They want to rule the world. They say, If you don’t become Muslim, we will kill you!

听着,在以色列,我们真的非常感激唐纳德·特朗普为以色列所做的一切。他给了我们很多武器。面对我们在世界上遭遇的政治阻力,他给了我们作战的空间。然后,他加入我们,理解了这场对伊朗战争的重要性。这就是现代版的德国,纳粹德国。他们疯了!对我们来说,伊朗就是纳粹德国。他们想统治世界。他们说,如果你不成为穆斯林,我们就杀了你!

After October 7th, we tried to gain back deterrence, so that our enemies around us were afraid. We wanted to break the Axis of Resistance around us. Now what is Trump doing? Everything, or anything that Iran says, he obeys. Trump said to stop the war in Lebanon. Today, an Israeli soldier was killed by Hezbollah. They are allowed to fire on us, but we are not allowed to fire on them.

10月7日之后,我们试图赢回威慑力,让我们周围的敌人感到恐惧。我们想打破我们周围的“抵抗轴心”。现在特朗普在做什么?伊朗说什么,他就听什么。特朗普说要停止黎巴嫩的战争。今天,一名以色列士兵被真主党杀害了。他们被允许向我们开火,我们却不被允许向他们开火。

Some people might say that Trump and Netanyahu started this war. They bombed Iran, they failed to dislodge the Iranian regime, and Iran decided to hold the entire global economy hostage, which has led to horrific effects all across the world. And so they had to make a deal.

有人可能会说,是特朗普和内塔尼亚胡发动了这场战争。他们轰炸了伊朗,未能推翻伊朗政权,而伊朗决定挟持整个全球经济作为人质,这在全世界造成了可怕的影响。所以他们不得不达成协议。

Aren’t you supposed to have planned for something like this? If this is what you are going to do, don’t start the war. Don’t do it.

难道你们不应该为这种情况做好预案吗?如果这就是你们打算做的,那就别发动战争。别这么做。

I think a lot of Americans would agree with that.

我想很多美国人会同意这一点。

But please listen a little bit. It’s even worse. There is—not was, is—a very good plan to replace the regime. Not one hundred per cent. Not eighty per cent. But most likely.

但请再听我说一点。情况更糟。有一个——不是有过,是现在就有——一个非常好的计划来替换这个政权。不是百分之百。不是百分之八十。但可能性很大。

So, like, ninety per cent, maybe?

那么,大概百分之九十?

Let’s be honest. No one can say if it is seventy per cent or eighty per cent.

说实话。没人能说是百分之七十还是百分之八十。

O.K., but it’s in that ballpark?

好吧,但大致在这个范围内?

I can tell you that I speak with people of a very high rank in Israeli defense, and they speak of a seventy- or eighty-per-cent chance to replace the Iranian regime if Trump allows the militias from Iraq to invade Iran.

我可以告诉你,我和以色列国防部门级别非常高的人谈过,他们说,如果特朗普允许伊拉克的民兵组织入侵伊朗,替换伊朗政权的可能性有百分之七十到八十。

These are Kurdish militias you’re talking about?

你说的是库尔德民兵组织?

Not only. Israel can provide them with weapons. This was part of the plan. And then, to our amazement, Trump said the Kurds didn’t want to fight. But, really, Trump is the one who forbade them from fighting, because Erdoğan put pressure on him not to do it. Israel had a brilliant plan and spent a lot of money, and shocked the Iranians in the beginning of the war. But you prevented the militias from acting, and now you ask why the regime didn’t fall. Because you didn’t give us the chance. In Gaza. In Lebanon. In Syria. In Iran. Everything we wanted to do, you prevented us from doing it. If you go to war, and you define the goal of the war, do it. If not, don’t do it. It’s not only that you don’t do it, but you falsely blame the Kurds and the Israelis. And you give in to all the demands of Iran. And they won’t stop. Tomorrow, they might say, If you don’t close the Embassy in Jerusalem, we will close the strait. Then what do you do?

不仅仅是。以色列可以为他们提供武器。这是计划的一部分。然后,令我们惊讶的是,特朗普说库尔德人不想打仗。但实际上,是特朗普禁止他们作战,因为埃尔多安向他施压,不让他这么做。以色列有一个绝妙的计划,花了很多钱,在战争初期震慑了伊朗人。但你们阻止了民兵组织行动,现在又问为什么政权没有倒台。因为你们没给我们机会。在加沙。在黎巴嫩。在叙利亚。在伊朗。我们想做的一切,你们都阻止我们去做。如果你要打仗,并且定义了战争的目标,那就去做。如果不做,就别开战。你不仅不做,还错误地指责库尔德人和以色列人。而且你屈服于伊朗的所有要求。他们不会停下来的。明天,他们可能会说,如果你不关闭在耶路撒冷的大使馆,我们就关闭海峡。那你怎么办?

You said that Israel had this brilliant plan. What did you make of the reports that Netanyahu told Trump that Iran would not close the strait?

你说以色列有那个绝妙的计划。你怎么看那些关于内塔尼亚胡告诉特朗普伊朗不会关闭海峡的报道?

This is absolutely nonsense. What? What? Not only is that nonsense, but Israel took this into account. I speak with high-ranking people in the military and politics. We are a small country, and we are very careful. Everyone in Israel knew this was a possibility. If you want to win in Iran, it isn’t enough to stop the nuclear program or missiles. You need to change the regime. And Israel brought planning to do it. But we missed the opportunity. The Iranians were in shock at the beginning. Israeli intelligence knew everything.

这完全是胡说八道。什么?什么?这不仅是胡说八道,而且以色列已经考虑到了这一点。我和军方及政界高层人士谈过。我们是一个小国,我们非常谨慎。以色列的每个人都知道这是一种可能性。如果你想在伊朗取胜,仅仅停止核计划或导弹是不够的。你需要改变政权。而以色列带来了实现这一点的计划。但我们错过了机会。伊朗人在战争初期处于震惊之中。以色列的情报部门知道一切。

They did close the strait and hold the global economy hostage, though, right?

但他们确实关闭了海峡,挟持了全球经济,不是吗?

Right, but, but, O.K. O.K. So, it’s your money or your life? Let’s make peace with Hitler, because the goal of the world is money? Even in Israel, we thought it would be a hundred and fifty dollars per barrel of gas. It isn’t. But it’s not good. But, listen, it’s not all about money. It’s not all about money in our life. Money is very important. It enables a good life. Wonderful.

对,但是,但是,好吧。好吧。那么,是要钱还是要命?让我们和希特勒讲和吧,因为世界的目标就是钱?即使在以色列,我们也曾以为油价会到每桶一百五十美元。并没有。但这情况不好。但是,听着,这不全是钱的问题。在我们的生活中,这不全是钱的问题。钱很重要。它能带来好生活。很棒。

But when you’re fighting a new Hitler, you don’t just focus on money?

但当你在和一个新的希特勒作战时,你不能只盯着钱?

This is what we think. Somebody will need to deal with this. They speak loudly and clearly. The missiles will wind up in Europe or the United States.

我们就是这么想的。总得有人来处理这个问题。他们说得清楚响亮。那些导弹最终会落到欧洲或美国。

Putting aside the merits of this war, do you think people such as yourself and the Prime Minister misjudged Donald Trump? I know you said a joyful prayer on the air when he was elected in 2024. You must have had some sense of who this guy is—that he isn’t loyal to anyone, that he had no real core values—

暂且不论这场战争的功过是非,你认为像你和总理这样的人是否误判了唐纳德·特朗普?我知道你在2024年他当选时,在节目中欣喜地做了祷告。你一定对这个人是什么样有所了解——他对谁都不忠诚,他没有真正的核心价值观——

Listen, I was really happy when he was elected. I admit it. I think it was good for Israel. And, in the beginning, it was. But today I don’t know what to think. I am really in shock.

听着,他当选时我真的很高兴。我承认。我认为这对以色列是好事。而且,一开始确实如此。但今天我不知道该怎么想了。我真的震惊了。

It’s hard to fathom.

这确实难以理解。

I don’t have a lot of moments like this. I don’t remember someone in modern history who would go with you and do wonderful things, and then suddenly disappear and go against you. So now I am the bad guy? I supported you! I was the good guy! How did I become the bad guy, and the Ayatollah is the good guy?

我很少有这样的时刻。我不记得现代历史上有谁会和你并肩作战,做了那么多好事,然后突然消失,转而反对你。所以现在我是坏人了?我支持过你!我是好人!我怎么就成了坏人,而阿亚图拉成了好人?

This is why I was wondering whether you had ever observed Donald Trump.

这就是为什么我想知道你是否曾仔细观察过唐纳德·特朗普。

I don’t know what motivated him. You know he is a Gemini? Geminis are not really ones to say the same things a lot. They change their minds. You know Geminis?

我不知道是什么驱使他。你知道他是双子座吗?双子座的人不大会总说一样的话。他们会改变主意。你了解双子座吗?

Yeah, I’m a Gemini, so don’t be too mean.

了解,我就是双子座,所以别说得太难听。

I’m a Gemini, too. But not like this. I don’t do it to my friends. I must clarify to you how I am feeling: for three years, we have fought to bring back deterrence. And now he is giving Iran what it wants. I feel sorry for him and for us. He has put us at huge risk. And, if we are being honest, I will tell you this: if you compare the agreement Obama did with Iran to this, what’s the difference? In some ways, Obama was more serious.

我也是双子座。但不是像这样。我不会这样对我的朋友。我必须向你澄清我的感受:三年来,我们一直在战斗,以赢回威慑力。而现在他正在给伊朗它想要的东西。我为他,也为我们感到遗憾。他把我们置于巨大的风险之中。而且,坦白说,我会告诉你:如果你比较一下奥巴马和伊朗达成的协议与这个协议,有什么区别?在某些方面,奥巴马更认真。

But you feel like, at first, when Trump came back to office in 2025, for a while, it was actually better? A year ago, the Gaza war was still going on, there was a total cutoff of humanitarian aid, and Trump was presiding over it all. So you think those were better days?

但你觉得,起初,当特朗普在2025年重新上任时,有那么一段时间,情况确实更好?一年前,加沙战争还在继续,人道主义援助完全被切断,而特朗普主导着这一切。所以你认为那些日子更好?

Right. In the past, it was really better days. Israel changed their borders with their enemies.

对。在过去,确实是更好的日子。以色列改变了与敌人的边界。

You control seventy per cent of Gaza now, too.

你们现在也控制了加沙的百分之七十。

It’s more like sixty per cent, but I don’t care. I wish it was seventy. It’s not enough.

更接近百分之六十,但我不在乎。我希望是百分之七十。这还不够。

Have faith in the future.

对未来要有信心。

They promised us that there would be emigration from Gaza. What happened to this?

他们向我们承诺过,会有从加沙向外移民。这事怎么样了?

Who promised that?

是谁承诺的?

Trump. And Netanyahu.

问特朗普。还有内塔尼亚胡。

Do you speak to the Prime Minister?

你和总理交谈吗?

I used to speak to him a lot, yes.

我以前经常和他交谈,是的。

Why not anymore?

为什么现在不了?

If you want to know, then I can tell you. Sometimes, when I think something is going bad, I say what I think, so now we talk less.

如果你想知道,我可以告诉你。有时候,当我认为事情进展不顺时,我会说出我的想法,所以现在我们交谈得少了。

But your channel is very close to him, correct?

但你们的频道和他非常亲近,对吗?

Yeah, but you in the media must understand that if somebody thinks that Netanyahu goes to the management of the channel and dictates what we think, that’s nonsense. My hour, for example, criticizes Trump. The hour before me does not. They say, You have to wait, relax. So, most of the time, we do support the line of Netanyahu, but my loyalty is to ideas, and when I think he does wrong things I say so. I say what I think.

是的,但你们媒体人必须明白,如果有人认为是内塔尼亚胡跑到频道管理层那里,规定我们怎么想,那是胡说。比如我的节目时段,就批评特朗普。我之前的节目时段就不批评。他们说,你得等等,放轻松。所以,大多数时候,我们确实支持内塔尼亚胡的路线,但我的忠诚是献给理念的,当我认为他做错事时,我会说出来。我说我所想的。

What do you think Netanyahu will do now with an election coming up?

你认为内塔尼亚胡在即将到来的选举中会怎么做?

I think he is in shock. In shock. In all the years that I have known him, he has never been in shock like now. Not with Obama. No one has caused a shock like Trump. And it’s because you couldn’t predict it.

我想他震惊了。震惊了。在我认识他的所有这些年里,他从未像现在这样震惊过。和奥巴马打交道时没有。没有人像特朗普这样造成如此大的震惊。这是因为你无法预测。

The unpredictable nature of Trump turning on you is what makes it so sad.

特朗普这种不可预测的背叛,正是让这一切如此悲哀的原因。

True. You are right. In a few months, we have an election, and one of the most important parts of his campaign was going to be his friendship with Trump. Now what is he going to say? It’s a problem.

没错。你说得对。再过几个月,我们就要选举了,他竞选活动中最重要的部分之一,本应是他与特朗普的友谊。现在他要说什么?这是个问题。

Listening to you, it sounds very personal.

听你这么说,感觉这非常个人化。

It is. You are right. I was in the Oval Office with the Prime Minister several times. I don’t know Trump personally, but I was there when we visited Washington. You are right that it is personal. We are best friends. We are friends. What happened? What happened? We succeeded. Everything we said would happen happened, even more quickly and acutely than we thought.

是的。你说得对。我曾几次和总理一起在椭圆形办公室。我个人不认识特朗普,但我们访问华盛顿时我在场。你说得对,这确实是个人化的。我们是最好的朋友。我们是朋友。发生了什么?发生了什么?我们成功了。我们说过会发生的一切都发生了,甚至比我们想的更快、更剧烈。

Except for the strait being closed and the Iranian government not falling. Except for those things, right?

除了海峡被关闭和伊朗政府没有倒台。除了这些事,对吧?

No, no. You keep saying it, and that’s your privilege. That wasn’t a surprise. But we thought a blockade to their blockade was genius. And they were really close to a collapse.

不,不。你一直在说这个,这是你的权利。那并不是意外。但我们曾认为,用封锁反制他们的封锁是天才之举。他们当时真的濒临崩溃。

It was close to succeeding, and then you guys were stabbed in the back.

它差点就成功了,然后你们被人在背后捅了一刀。

Exactly. And we don’t understand why. You understand that they are Nazis. What happened to you? ♦

正是如此。我们不明白为什么。你明白他们是纳粹。你到底怎么了? ♦

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