Forget everything that you learned in seventh-grade math class. Here’s how to accurately determine the actual probability of your friend showing up to those plans later based on the theoretical probability that they just texted to you.

“I’m 99% sure I can make it tonight.” = 50% chance they’ll make it tonight.

“I’ll for sure be there!” = 83% chance they’ll be there.

“I could be convinced . . . ” = They are in sweatpants, and therefore cannot be convinced.

“I’m 50/50 on going tonight.” = These are actually pretty good odds.

“I’ll 100% be there.” = 30% chance they’ll be there, 70% chance you’ll get a text from them five minutes before the meetup time reporting that they’re two stops away but just threw up and think it’s best if they go home and rest.

“Odds are you’ll beat me there since I’m coming straight from work.” = This person will be too tired to meet you. They’ll ultimately claim that they’re stuck at the office, but they’re going the fuck home. Don’t believe me? Check their location. Yup. They just stopped sharing it with you.

“90% chance I’m gonna make it.” = -3% chance they’re gonna make it.

“When did it get so cold all of a sudden?!” = Start inviting your backup friends.

“I’ll most likely be able to get there a little after 8!” = Bring granola bars. You’ll eat your first bite of dinner at 9:17 P.M.

“I’m 80% in.” = This is a reliable statistic; expect an 80% commitment rate.

“I’m 80% down.” = Very different from “80% in.” Any time someone uses the adjective “down” to describe their willingness, divide their reported odds by two. In this case, your friend is actually 40% down, so go ahead and keep that Korean sheet mask on your face a while longer. Fuck it, take your pants off, too. Nobody’s going anywhere.

“I could be down.” = Let’s use what we learned above. Zero divided by two? Zero.

“We still on for tonight?” = Oof, a question mark? This person unfortunately just got their period, and it was kinda late this month, so it’s heavy and crampy and just not a good scene over there. Send food and don’t expect to see her for at least seventy-two hours.

“O.K. See you tonight. Bring pashmina or similar in case A.C. is blasting in restaurant.” = This is your mom. She will be there early and will have already asked the waiter to switch tables three times before your arrival.

“Tbh there’s about a 10% chance you’ll see me at that shit.” = You will see them at that shit and you will share a magical, life-changing, though strangely platonic, kiss on the lips. I don’t know how else to describe it—you just have to be there to find out.

“Hey u here?” = The 50/50 friend showed up! You didn’t trust our math and figured they weren’t coming, so you bailed. Rookie mistake. ♦