Global Notes

Marco Rubio Takes Aim at Globalists and the Left

马可·卢比奥剑指全球主义者与左翼
Primary among the Secretary of State’s targets is the International Criminal Court.
这位国务卿的首要目标,是国际刑事法院。
Marco Rubio
Photograph by Brendan Smialowski / Getty

In August, 2022, Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s then Prime Minister, travelled to Dallas in a bid to save “Western civilization.” The opening speech he delivered at that year’s Conservative Political Action Conference called for the defeat of “the globalist ruling class,” and urged greater coördination between nationalist forces on both sides of the Atlantic. Orbán offered his American audience a bit of advice from his many years in office, during which he had bullied civil society, stacked the judiciary, bent state media to his whims, and waged a relentless culture war against the left. “In order to win, it is not enough to know what you’re fighting for,” Orbán told the CPAC crowd. “You should also know how you should fight. My answer is: play by your own rules.”

2022年8月,时任匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托(Viktor Orbán)远赴达拉斯,试图挽救“西方文明”。他在当年保守派政治行动会议(Conservative Political Action Conference)上发表开幕演讲,呼吁击败“全球主义统治阶层”,并敦促大西洋两岸的民族主义力量加强协调。欧尔班向他的美国听众分享了自己多年执政的心得——这些年里,他打压公民社会、安插亲信填满司法系统、将国家媒体玩弄于股掌之间,并对左翼发起了一场无休止的文化战争。“要想赢,光知道自己为何而战是不够的,”欧尔班对台下众人说,“你还得知道该怎么打。我的答案是:按你自己的规则来玩。”

Orbán’s winning run ended this April, in a landslide defeat in national elections, but his template for victory endures. The second term of President Donald Trump can be read as an exercise in speed-running through Orbán’s playbook, with the Administration attacking universities, chipping away at the independence of mainstream media outlets, and attempting to better gerrymander districts in favor of the Republican Party, among other things. Trump’s top lieutenants also evidently see themselves engaged in a profoundly ideological contest. In recent days, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has presided over a number of initiatives to combat perceived “anti-American” threats. Last week, he announced renewed efforts to unravel the International Criminal Court, which the State Department described in a press release as a “globalist” menace that represents “an intolerable threat to U.S. sovereignty.” He also convened a conference in Washington, attended by representatives from more than sixty nations, though few top diplomats, on the supposed danger of global “far-left” terrorism, and encouraged other governments to join the United States to help “crush this evil forever.” And, on Monday, the State Department issued a hundred-page report on Cuba that links communist-influence operations to protest movements, activists, and politicians in the country, including members of the Democratic Socialists of America and New York City’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani.

欧尔班的连胜纪录在今年四月戛然而止,他在全国大选中遭遇惨败,但他那套胜利模板却流传了下来。唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统的第二任期,可以看作是对欧尔班战术手册的一次“速通”演练:这届政府攻击大学,蚕食主流媒体的独立性,试图更巧妙地重划选区以利共和党,凡此种种,不一而足。特朗普的左膀右臂显然也自认身处一场深刻的意识形态较量。近日,国务卿马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)主导了一系列行动,打击他所认定的“反美”威胁。上周,他宣布重启瓦解国际刑事法院(International Criminal Court)的努力,国务院在一份新闻稿中将该法院描述为“全球主义”的威胁,代表着“对美国主权不可容忍的侵犯”。他还在华盛顿召集了一场会议,讨论所谓全球“极左”恐怖主义的危险,有六十多个国家的代表出席,但高级外交官寥寥无几;他鼓励其他政府与美国一道,“将这股邪恶势力永远铲除”。周一,国务院又发布了一份长达百页的古巴问题报告,将共产主义的影响行动与国内的抗议运动、活动人士乃至政客联系起来,其中就包括美国民主社会主义者(Democratic Socialists of America)的成员和纽约市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼(Zohran Mamdani)。

The timing for all this is curious. The Trump Administration—faced with plummeting approval ratings, a potential major electoral setback in the November midterms, and a war in the Middle East that it should never have started, doesn’t know how to end, and seems in the process of renewing—may be searching for new distractions to invigorate its base and occupy the news cycle. But Rubio’s gambits still reflect an agenda that has always animated this White House; the President started picking fights with the I.C.C. during his first term, while Rubio, a Cuban American with a large constituency from the same background in South Florida, has long dreamed of regime change in Havana. Taken together in the current moment, though, the moves point to a kind of intensification of MAGA’s illiberal project, a process that Rubio appears eager to lead.

这一切的时机耐人寻味。特朗普政府正面临支持率暴跌、十一月中期选举可能遭遇重大挫败,以及一场本不该发动、不知如何收场、眼下似乎又在重燃的中东战争——它或许正在寻找新的干扰项,以鼓舞基本盘并占据新闻版面。但卢比奥的这盘棋,依然反映了一直驱动着这届白宫的议程;总统在第一任期就开始与国际刑事法院叫板,而卢比奥本人是古巴裔,在南佛罗里达拥有庞大的同族选民基础,长期以来一直梦想着哈瓦那的政权更迭。然而,将这些动作放在当下这个时刻来看,它们指向的是“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)那套反自由主义计划的某种升级,而卢比奥似乎正急于引领这一进程。

Rubio put the I.C.C. on notice with a video message and an opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal, and vowed to “systemically disable” it. The spur of Rubio’s ire may be the court’s ongoing war-crimes case against the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu; neither Israel nor the United States is a party to the Rome Statute that brought the court into being, in 2002, but Israel’s devastation of Gaza gives the court jurisdiction on the issue, since Palestine is a formal member. There’s an active I.C.C. warrant for Netanyahu’s arrest, which Mamdani, in a video posted on Tuesday evening, said that he wished to execute when the Israeli leader next comes to New York City, likely in September, but that he has no “legal authority” to do so independent of federal authorities. The Trump Administration attacked Mamdani for his stance. There are also campaigns from human-rights groups to get the court to consider war crimes against the United States for its strikes on alleged narco-traffickers in the Caribbean and on civilian targets in Iran, though no formal investigations, let alone charges, seem imminent. There was an investigation, launched in 2020, into alleged U.S. war crimes in Afghanistan, but the I.C.C. recently moved to “deprioritise” it. Generations of U.S. lawmakers have balked at allowing the I.C.C. jurisdiction over this country, but no official has embarked on such a sweeping attack on the institution as Rubio, who wants to expand existing anti-I.C.C. sanctions—which already include travel bans, asset freezes, and other restrictions on a number of I.C.C. personnel working on cases involving U.S. and Israeli nationals—and to pressure other nations to withdraw from the court altogether. Kenneth Roth, an American attorney and the former executive director of Human Rights Watch, told me that at stake could be the very principle of whether “governments control prosecution of crimes on their territory,” which he described as a basic element of justice. “The Trump Administration would have people believe that, if I commit a war crime in London, it somehow violates national sovereignty for Britain to allow the I.C.C. to prosecute me,” he said.

卢比奥通过一段视频讲话和一篇发表在《华尔街日报》上的评论文章,向国际刑事法院发出警告,誓言要“系统性地瘫痪”它。点燃卢比奥怒火的,可能是该法院正在审理的针对以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)的战争罪案件;以色列和美国都不是2002年创设该法院的《罗马规约》的缔约国,但以色列对加沙的蹂躏赋予了法院对此案的管辖权,因为巴勒斯坦是正式成员国。国际刑事法院对内塔尼亚胡的逮捕令正在生效,马姆达尼在周二晚间发布的一段视频中表示,他希望在这位以色列领导人下次到访纽约(很可能在九月)时执行该逮捕令,但他没有独立于联邦当局的“法律权限”这样做。特朗普政府抨击了马姆达尼的立场。一些人权组织也在发起运动,要求法院审议美国在加勒比海打击所谓毒贩以及在伊朗打击民用目标时犯下的战争罪行,不过目前似乎还没有正式调查,更不用说指控了。2020年曾启动过一项针对美军在阿富汗涉嫌战争罪的调查,但国际刑事法院最近已将其“降级处理”。几代美国立法者都拒绝接受国际刑事法院对美国的管辖权,但还没有哪位官员像卢比奥这样,对该机构发起如此全面的攻击。他想要扩大现有的反国际刑事法院制裁——这些制裁已包括对若干处理涉及美国及以色列国民案件的法院人员实施旅行禁令、资产冻结和其他限制——并施压其他国家彻底退出该法院。美国律师、人权观察(Human Rights Watch)前执行主任肯尼斯·罗斯(Kenneth Roth)告诉我,这危及的可能是“政府是否控制对其领土上犯罪的起诉”这一根本原则,他将此描述为正义的基本要素。“特朗普政府想让人们相信,如果我在伦敦犯下战争罪,英国允许国际刑事法院起诉我,就莫名其妙地侵犯了国家主权,”他说。

The targeting of the I.C.C. is part of the Trump Administration’s broader friction with major parts of the international system, which U.S. officials frequently argue is somehow rigged against American interests and beholden to “woke” agendas. It has pulled out of some United Nations treaties and agencies—including the Paris Climate Accords and the World Health Organization—while it is more broadly championing budget cuts across the U.N. and the streamlining or paring down of affiliated agencies and international organizations, as well as efforts to supplant them with its own initiatives, such as Trump’s quixotic Board of Peace. But the campaign to break the I.C.C., Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote, “is a campaign of pure destruction, a coercive attempt to impose the United States’ will on the rest of the world.” Prominent U.S. allies, including the French President, Emmanuel Macron, have spoken in defense of the I.C.C., and it’s unclear how much traction Rubio’s offensive will gain. John B. Bellinger III, a former legal adviser to the State Department during the George W. Bush Administration, sees the initiative “as a political message intended for a domestic audience.”

将矛头对准国际刑事法院,是特朗普政府与国际体系主要部分发生更大范围摩擦的一环。美国官员常常辩称,这个体系不知怎的被操纵了,损害美国利益,并受制于“觉醒”议程。美国已退出部分联合国条约和机构——包括《巴黎气候协定》和世界卫生组织——同时更广泛地推动削减整个联合国的预算,精简或裁撤附属机构和国际组织,并试图用自己的倡议取而代之,比如特朗普那个异想天开的“和平委员会”。但卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)高级研究员斯图尔特·帕特里克(Stewart Patrick)写道,这场摧毁国际刑事法院的运动,“是一场纯粹破坏性的运动,是一种将美国意志强加给世界其他国家的胁迫性企图。”包括法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)在内的美国重要盟友,都已发声捍卫国际刑事法院,目前尚不清楚卢比奥的攻势能获得多少支持。曾在乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)政府担任国务院法律顾问的约翰·B·贝林格三世(John B. Bellinger III)认为,这一举措“是面向国内受众的政治信号”。

The same is true for the summit arranged by the State Department last week on the spectral menace of alleged far-left terrorist organizations. There, too, Rubio touted a campaign to “dismantle” his quarry—in this case, far-left activist networks that he sees as coördinating activities from Europe to the Americas. He suggested that “Antifa militants” are a graver threat than Islamist extremists, and summoned a history of left-wing violence primarily from the nineteen-seventies to make his argument. (Trump’s Justice Department, meanwhile, has quietly deleted a 2024 department study, which found far-right extremists were involved in far more ideologically motivated killings than their left-wing or Islamist counterparts.) Last year, the White House released a national-security memorandum about targeting “domestic terrorism,” which the American Civil Liberties Union described as “a fever dream of conspiracies” and “outright falsehoods” set up to target or suppress the work of myriad left-leaning activists, nonprofits, and their donors. Separately, the Trump Administration placed four European “Antifa” factions—two from Greece, one from Italy, and one from Germany—on its State Department foreign-terrorist-organizations list, a set of designations that left many European officials bemused, not least because of the lingering vagueness behind who or what even constitutes “Antifa.” At the conference, Rubio said that the left is “a distinctive and unique evil. It has always been driven by a hatred above all else, a hatred for civilization itself. It is a revolt of the worst against the best, a revolt of the weak and the cowardly against the strong and the good. It is perpetrated by those who cannot build, who cannot create, who cannot achieve great things, and take their revenge upon the world for their own inadequacy by seeking to destroy those who can.”

国务院上周就所谓极左恐怖组织的幽灵威胁安排的峰会,也是如此。在那里,卢比奥同样鼓吹要“瓦解”他的猎物——这一次,是他认为在欧美之间协调行动的极左活动人士网络。他暗示“安提法(Antifa)武装分子”是比伊斯兰极端分子更严重的威胁,并主要援引上世纪七十年代的左翼暴力历史来论证自己的观点。(与此同时,特朗普的司法部悄然删除了一份2024年的部门研究报告,该报告发现,极右翼极端分子涉及的、受意识形态驱动的杀人事件,远多于左翼或伊斯兰极端分子。)去年,白宫发布了一份关于打击“国内恐怖主义”的国家安全备忘录,美国公民自由联盟(American Civil Liberties Union)将其描述为“阴谋论的狂热幻梦”和“彻头彻尾的谎言”,旨在针对或压制众多左倾活动人士、非营利组织及其捐助者的工作。另外,特朗普政府将四个欧洲“安提法”派别——两个来自希腊,一个来自意大利,一个来自德国——列入了国务院的外国恐怖组织名单,这一系列认定让许多欧洲官员感到困惑,尤其是因为“安提法”究竟是谁、是什么,其定义至今模糊不清。在那次会议上,卢比奥说,左翼是“一种独特而鲜明的邪恶。它始终被一种高于一切的仇恨所驱动,那是对文明本身的仇恨。这是最劣者对最优者的反叛,是弱者和懦夫对强者和善者的反叛。它由那些不会建设、不会创造、无法成就伟业的人所施行,他们因自身的无能而向世界复仇,企图摧毁那些能够做到的人。”

Critics of an Administration that pardoned the January 6th insurrectionists see this as shameless, cynical grandstanding. “We strongly urge the Department to return its focus to a serious mission set that is definitionally apolitical, data-driven, and rooted in reality,” a letter, which eleven Democratic lawmakers wrote to Rubio, said. You could read the Secretary of State’s ideological fervor as smoke from the fire of an Administration that’s eroding traditional checks and balances and using whatever coercive instruments it has to get its way, Roth said. “This is a lawless Administration, and that effort to put itself above the law manifests itself in various ways,” he said. Damian Murphy, the senior vice-president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, a center-left think tank, warned that such rhetoric coming from the top echelons of U.S. leadership only “serves to embolden those illiberal actors who oftentimes use the guise of counterterrorism as a way to exert authoritarian control, which we’ve seen over and over in places like Russia, in places like China.” He also added that “our counterterrorism resources are finite. So when time and resources are spent targeting weak groups that pose little, if any, threat to the United States, it really calls into question the political motivations behind this effort.”

对于一个赦免了1月6日国会山暴乱者的政府,批评者认为这是在无耻而犬儒地哗众取宠。“我们强烈敦促国务院将重心重新放回严肃的任务上,这些任务在定义上就应是非政治的、数据驱动的、植根于现实的,”十一位民主党议员在写给卢比奥的信中说道。罗斯表示,你可以将这位国务卿的意识形态狂热,解读为一个正在侵蚀传统制衡机制、动用一切胁迫工具来达到目的的政府所燃起的硝烟。“这是一个无法无天的政府,它试图凌驾于法律之上的努力以各种方式显现出来,”他说。中间偏左智库“美国进步中心”(Center for American Progress)负责国家安全与国际政策的高级副总裁达米安·墨菲(Damian Murphy)警告说,来自美国领导层高层的此类言论,只会“助长那些非自由主义行为者的气焰,他们常常以反恐为幌子来施加威权控制,我们在俄罗斯、中国这样的地方屡见不鲜。”他还补充道,“我们的反恐资源是有限的。所以,当时间和资源被用来对付那些对美国几乎构不成任何威胁的弱小团体时,这真的让人质疑此举背后的政治动机。”

Rubio isn’t hiding his motivations in the Caribbean. In a post on X, he said that the State Department’s new Cuba report, which is titled “Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism,” presents a full accounting of Havana’s ties to American “radical leftism and Third Worldism” which “the American people deserve to know.” The report offers a potted history of the Communist regime’s influence campaigns, threading a needle between its early support of groups such as the Black Panthers to current “ties to powerful leftist nonprofits, anti-ICE collectives, socialist groups, and Marxist militant organizations across the United States.” The report can be read as another broadside against the American left, but it’s also part of the Trump Administration’s escalating approach to Cuba, which is under a punishing oil blockade and could yet face a U.S. military incursion. Michael Bustamante, a historian of Cuba at the University of Miami, told me that the report offers “a compendium of the greatest hits of allegations of Cuban subversion over time,” which, while not entirely inaccurate, is selective in its composition. He also noted the American right’s long tradition of attempting to scapegoat legitimate protest with accusations of foreign influence. “It’s not for nothing that organizations like the John Birch Society in the sixties used to see civil rights writ large as this kind of communist conspiracy with links to Havana and Moscow, and so it’s really sad to see that recirculated in this way, in this overly simplistic fashion,” he said.

在加勒比海地区,卢比奥毫不掩饰自己的动机。他在X平台的一篇帖文中说,国务院那份题为《古巴:21世纪共产主义之都》的新报告,全面阐述了哈瓦那与美国“激进左翼主义和第三世界主义”的联系,“美国人民有权知道”这些。这份报告简要回顾了古巴共产党政权的影响力运动史,将其早期对黑豹党等团体的支持,与当前“与美国各地强大的左翼非营利组织、反移民及海关执法局(ICE)团体、社会主义组织和马克思主义激进组织的联系”串联了起来。这份报告可以解读为对美国左翼的又一次猛烈抨击,但它也是特朗普政府对古巴不断升级的施压手段的一部分。古巴正遭受着严酷的石油封锁,甚至可能面临美国的军事入侵。迈阿密大学研究古巴的历史学家迈克尔·布斯塔曼特(Michael Bustamante)告诉我,这份报告提供了“一份关于古巴颠覆活动指控的、跨越时代的‘精选集’”,虽然并非完全失实,但在材料的选取上有所取舍。他还指出了美国右翼的一个悠久传统,即试图用外国影响的指控来污名化合法的抗议活动。“像六十年代的约翰·伯奇协会(John Birch Society)这样的组织,曾将整个民权运动视为与哈瓦那和莫斯科有联系的共产主义阴谋,这并非空穴来风。所以,看到这种论调以如此过分简单化的方式重新流传,真的令人悲哀,”他说。

The Administration’s opponents are troubled. In recent days, “Rubio has launched two equally ambitious campaigns—the first is a rejuvenated McCarthy Red Scare campaign at home to hunt down left-wing activists who oppose this Administration’s agenda, and the other is to align its allies at global scale toward this anti-left agenda,” David Adler, an American activist who is a co-coördinator of the Progressive International, a global network of left-wing political parties, unions, and movements, told me. He pointed to the Panamerican Congress, a summit of left-wing politicians and diplomats that will be held in Uruguay next month, as an example of burgeoning efforts to push back against Trump and Rubio’s apparent desire for hemispheric hegemony. (Representative Pramila Jayapal, a Democrat from Washington State, is expected to lead a U.S. delegation there.)

政府的反对者们深感不安。近日,“卢比奥发起了两场同样野心勃勃的运动——第一场是在国内重演麦卡锡式的‘红色恐慌’,猎杀反对本届政府议程的左翼活动人士;另一场则是在全球范围内联合盟友,推行这一反左议程,”美国活动人士、全球左翼政党、工会和运动网络“进步国际”(Progressive International)的联合协调员大卫·阿德勒(David Adler)告诉我。他指出,下月将在乌拉圭举行的泛美大会(Panamerican Congress)——一场左翼政治家和外交官的峰会——就是抵制特朗普和卢比奥在西半球称霸企图的新兴努力的一个例证。(来自华盛顿州的民主党众议员普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔(Pramila Jayapal)预计将率领一个美国代表团参会。)

Whether Rubio’s campaigns prove effective is a separate matter. Opinion polls show the U.S.’s favorability under Trump at record lows around the world, including among its traditional allies. The White House’s blustering over Greenland and meddling in the Persian Gulf have also compelled European far-right factions otherwise in its camp to distance themselves from Trump’s policy goals and agenda. On the Continent, the Trump brand is toxic, even if Rubio’s rhetoric may find some sympathetic ears. In Budapest, Orbán, before his electoral defeat, announced his intention to pull Hungary out of the I.C.C., a gesture made with Netanyahu standing beside him and, it seems, likely coördinated with the Trump Administration. In May, Hungary’s new parliament voted to reverse that decision. Péter Magyar, Orbán’s rival and successor, has said that if Netanyahu returns to Hungary, his government would be obliged to take the Israeli leader into custody. ♦

卢比奥的这些运动能否奏效,则是另一回事。民调显示,特朗普治下的美国,在全球范围内的好感度跌至历史新低,即便在其传统盟友中也是如此。白宫在格陵兰问题上的叫嚣和对波斯湾的干涉,也迫使原本与其同阵营的欧洲极右翼派别,与特朗普的政策目标和议程保持距离。在欧洲大陆,特朗普这个品牌是有毒的,即便卢比奥的言论可能找到一些同情的耳朵。在布达佩斯,欧尔班在选举失利前曾宣布,匈牙利打算退出国际刑事法院,这一姿态是在内塔尼亚胡站在他身边时做出的,而且似乎很可能与特朗普政府协调过。五月,匈牙利新议会投票推翻了这一决定。欧尔班的对手和继任者彼得·毛焦尔(Péter Magyar)已表示,如果内塔尼亚胡返回匈牙利,他的政府将有义务拘留这位以色列领导人。 ♦

2 free previews left — register to get 30 translations a month