The Lede

James Talarico’s Final Sprint

詹姆斯·塔拉里科的最后一搏
The Texas Democrat has stretched his closing message to encompass Beyoncé, the Biblical David, and “Friday Night Lights.” Is that what it takes to flip the state?
这位得克萨斯州民主党人把他的收官信息扩展到了碧昂丝、《圣经》中的大卫和《胜利之光》。这就是翻转这个州所需要的吗?
Figure stands at podium
Photograph by Joel Angel Juarez / Reuters

Last Saturday night, at a Día de los Muertos festival in downtown Corpus Christi, Texas, James Talarico jogged up to the stage where a cumbia-E.D.M. d.j. named El Dusty was at the turntable. “Mr. James, what’s good, bruh?” El Dusty, who has a wiry white beard and wore a camouflage-print vest, said, before passing the mike to the Presbyterian seminarian and Democratic candidate for Senate. “Corpus Christi, it is so good to see you,” Talarico, dressed in a blazer and cowboy boots, told a crowd of about two hundred young people dressed as Catrinas and ghouls, before launching into a one-minute speech that mentioned “faith, family, and freedom.” “God bless you, Corpus Christi, let’s go win this thing,” Talarico said. The crowd erupted in cheers, and El Dusty started playing an accordion melody as he rhythmically cut the air with his hand. “Let’s cumbia! Cumbia! Cumbia!” he chanted. Then Talarico was mobbed by selfie seekers, many of them too young to vote.

上周六晚,在得克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂市中心的一个亡灵节庆典上,詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)小跑上台,此时一位名叫埃尔·达斯蒂(El Dusty)的坎比亚电子舞曲DJ正在打碟。“詹姆斯先生,怎么样啊,兄弟?”埃尔·达斯蒂说。他留着花白的络腮胡,穿着一件迷彩背心,然后把话筒递给了这位长老会神学院学生、民主党参议员候选人。“科珀斯克里斯蒂,见到你们太好了,”塔拉里科穿着西装外套和牛仔靴,对大约两百名打扮成卡特里娜骷髅和鬼怪的年轻人说,随后发表了一分钟演讲,提到“信仰、家庭和自由”。“上帝保佑你们,科珀斯克里斯蒂,让我们去赢下这场仗,”塔拉里科说。人群爆发出欢呼声,埃尔·达斯蒂开始播放手风琴旋律,同时用手有节奏地切着空气。“来跳坎比亚!坎比亚!坎比亚!”他喊道。接着塔拉里科被求合影的人围住了,其中许多人还没到投票年龄。

If Talarico seemed out of place among the retired tías and Mexican goths, it’s because he’s trying to pull off something no Texas liberal has done since 1994: assemble a winning statewide coalition. Since becoming the nominee in March, Talarico has been buoyed by a flood of money (his is the wealthiest Democratic Senate campaign this cycle, having raised more than a hundred and thirty-four million dollars), outsized media attention, and consistent polling showing the candidates within the margin of error. Ken Paxton, the state’s scandal-plagued attorney general and Talarico’s opponent, notched President Donald Trump’s endorsement but has seemingly failed to unify the G.O.P.; many Republicans look askance at his impeachment trial, his estranged wife’s allegations of infidelity, and his corruption charges. Plus, Trump said, “he may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen.”

如果说塔拉里科在退休阿姨和墨西哥哥特青年中间显得格格不入,那是因为他正在尝试完成自1994年以来没有任何得州自由派做到过的事:组建一个能赢下全州选举的联盟。自三月成为提名人以来,塔拉里科一直受到大量资金涌入的推动(他的竞选是本届周期中最富有的民主党参议员竞选,已筹得超过一亿三千四百万美元)、超高的媒体关注度,以及持续显示两位候选人差距在误差范围内的民调。肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton),这位丑闻缠身的得州总检察长、塔拉里科的对手,拿到了特朗普总统的背书,但似乎未能统一共和党;许多共和党人对他的弹劾审判、分居妻子指控的不忠行为以及腐败指控侧目而视。此外,特朗普还说,“他可能不是我见过的最好看的人。”

Another headwind for Paxton: many voters remain heated over stubbornly high costs, Trump’s war in Iran, and his Administration’s deportation program. A few moments after Talarico got offstage in Corpus Christi, Aurelia Ramirez and John Herrera wandered through the crowd looking for Talarico. Herrera, a twenty-one-year-old curbside shopper and premed student, cast his first-ever vote for Trump, in 2024. It wasn’t particularly controversial in a county that elected Trump by eleven points. “I was going with the grain on that one,” Herrera said. But they’ve both since soured on the President, owing to rising costs and immigration enforcement. “He thinks about himself too much,” Ramirez, Herrera’s grandmother, said as she walked past two rows of low-riders. “Now I said, ‘Well, I’m going to try Democrat and see how things go.’ ”

帕克斯顿面临的另一个逆风是:许多选民对居高不下的物价、特朗普在伊朗的战争以及其政府的驱逐出境计划仍然感到愤怒。塔拉里科在科珀斯克里斯蒂下台后不久,奥雷利娅·拉米雷斯(Aurelia Ramirez)和约翰·埃雷拉(John Herrera)穿过人群寻找塔拉里科。埃雷拉是一名21岁的路边取货员兼医学预科生,他在2024年投出了人生第一张总统选票,投给了特朗普。在一个特朗普以11个百分点胜出的县,这并不特别有争议。“那一次我是随大流,”埃雷拉说。但两人此后都对总统感到失望,原因是物价上涨和移民执法。“他太为自己着想了,”埃雷拉的祖母拉米雷斯走过两排低底盘改装车时说。“现在我说,‘好吧,我要试试民主党,看看怎么样。’”

Will Talarico be the Democrat who overcomes decades of voter apathy—and antipathy toward his party? “Talarico has to do everything,” Tory Gavito, the Austin-based president of the donor network Way to Win, told me. “There is no one single theory of change to win this state. Every type of Texan has to decide, ‘Enough of it, enough.’ ” Lately, Gavito has seen some ads in which Talarico touts that he helped enact the largest property tax cut in Texas history—and she worries that they send the wrong message at a time when young people are struggling to afford rent, let alone purchase a home. “Property tax is a meaningless concept to them,” she said. It’s reminiscent, she said, of Kamala Harris’s attempt, in 2024, to win over independents by campaigning for President with Liz Cheney: voters might wonder what his policy priorities really are. “Even in the state of Texas, where I am paid to pay attention, I don’t know that I can repeat back three things that Talarico is saying over and over and over again,” she said.

塔拉里科会成为那个克服数十年选民冷漠——以及选民对其政党的反感——的民主党人吗?“塔拉里科必须面面俱到,”总部位于奥斯汀的捐助网络“赢之道”(Way to Win)总裁托里·加维托(Tory Gavito)告诉我。“赢下这个州没有单一的变化理论。每一种类型的得州人都必须做出决定:‘受够了,真的受够了。’”最近,加维托看到一些广告,塔拉里科在广告中宣传他帮助通过了得州历史上最大规模的房产税减免——她担心这些广告在年轻人连房租都付不起、更别说买房的当下传递了错误的信息。“房产税对他们来说是一个毫无意义的概念,”她说。她说,这让人想起2024年卡玛拉·哈里斯试图通过与利兹·切尼一起竞选总统来争取独立选民的尝试:选民可能会怀疑他的政策优先事项到底是什么。“即使在得克萨斯州——我是拿钱来关注这些事的——我都不确定我能复述出塔拉里科反复强调的三件事,”她说。

In fact, Talarico has an uncanny ability to say the same things over and over again. His memorized speeches sound as if he is reading from a teleprompter, without false starts or stutters—he repeats himself only when trying to speak over the crowd’s applause. Now, in the final stretch, his closing message attempts to cover everything, from the etymology of the word “Texas” to the mythos of Beyoncé and Selena. At his rallies, he compares himself to the Biblical David, preparing for battle; he tells each city he visits, “You are my slingshot.” He also says that, like Jesus Christ, he was called to serve, not to be served. And he also likes to evoke Coach Eric Taylor from the TV show “Friday Night Lights,” telling his supporters, “This is the last play of the last drive.” On the G.O.P. side, Paxton’s attacks on Talarico are caustic enough to make the Democrat’s put-downs (he is partial to a line about how Paxton is like “that one guy” at a bar who sneakily adds his drink to your tab) sound like constructive feedback.

事实上,塔拉里科有一种不可思议的能力,能把同样的话一遍又一遍地说。他背下来的演讲听起来像是在读提词器,没有口误或结巴——他只有在试图压过人群掌声时才会重复自己。现在,在最后冲刺阶段,他的收官信息试图涵盖一切,从“Texas”一词的词源到碧昂丝和赛琳娜的神话。在他的集会上,他把自己比作《圣经》中准备迎战的大卫;他对他访问的每个城市说:“你是我的弹弓。”他还说,像耶稣基督一样,他被呼召去服侍人,而不是被人服侍。他还喜欢引用电视剧《胜利之光》中的埃里克·泰勒教练的话,告诉他的支持者:“这是最后一波进攻的最后一档。”在共和党方面,帕克斯顿对塔拉里科的人身攻击尖刻到让这位民主党人的贬损之词(他喜欢说帕克斯顿就像酒吧里“那种人”,偷偷把自己的酒加到你的账单上)听起来像是建设性反馈。

Talarico has avoided having joint rallies with national Democratic figures, including some rumored 2028 contenders, an omission that his surrogates attribute to a desire to focus on Texas rather than on the Party. After a Talarico rally in San Antonio, I rattled names of high-profile Democrats to two women who went to grab a beer near the venue. Would campaigning with Barack Obama help Talarico win in Texas? “Maybe, yes,” one of the women said. Kamala Harris? “Eeeeh,” her friend replied. “Maybe not, maybe not.” “I think George Bush would be great,” the first woman added.

塔拉里科一直避免与全国性民主党人物联合举行集会,包括一些传闻中的2028年潜在候选人,他的代理人将这一缺席归因于他希望专注于得州而非政党。在圣安东尼奥的一场塔拉里科集会结束后,我向两位去场地附近喝啤酒的女士报出了一串知名民主党人的名字。与巴拉克·奥巴马一起竞选会有助于塔拉里科在得州获胜吗?“也许,会的,”其中一位女士说。卡玛拉·哈里斯呢?“呃呃呃,”她的朋友回答。“也许不会,也许不会。”“我觉得乔治·布什会很棒,”第一位女士补充道。

Christian Menefee, a recently elected Democratic congressman representing Houston, told me that Talarico could do just fine without Obama. “That’s a fantastic way to be approaching this—not looking for a savior here at the last minute,” he said. Within the state, Representative Jasmine Crockett, Talarico’s opponent in the primary, claimed to NBC News that the nominee had not reached out to her for campaign appearances. “You know, I don’t view it as significant that James and Jasmine aren’t in a caravan driving across the state,” Menefee told me. “I view it as significant that we are all working together for the same thing.”

克里斯蒂安·梅内菲(Christian Menefee),一位新当选的休斯敦民主党国会议员,告诉我塔拉里科没有奥巴马也能做得很好。“这是一种极好的处理方式——不在最后一刻寻找救世主,”他说。在州内,众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特(Jasmine Crockett),塔拉里科在初选中的对手,向NBC新闻声称这位提名人没有联系她参加竞选活动。“你知道,我不认为詹姆斯和贾斯敏没有一起开车穿越全州是什么大事,”梅内菲告诉我。“我认为重要的是我们都在为同一个目标而努力。”

If elected, Talarico would, along with Ted Cruz, represent the state with the largest population of Black Americans in the country. After Talarico beat Crockett, Menefee told him that he needed to show up in Black communities, though he cautioned that people would be angry—at him, at previous campaigns, at a Democratic Party that has overlooked them. “When you come and you just sit down and shut the hell up and listen to people, that means a lot to them,” Menefee said. Other lawmakers and activists have expressed concerns that the campaign is not doing enough to turn out those voters. “For a lot of us, it’s, like, Well, how can this white boy, for real, for real, understand this, when he hasn’t been in these situations?” Chas Moore, the co-founder of Austin Justice Coalition, who overlapped with Talarico at the University of Texas at Austin, said. (Talarico’s spiel hasn’t changed much since he was running for student government, he said.) The risk is that “they either vote for him,” Moore said, “or they just don’t show up—which, to me, is a vote for Paxton.”

如果当选,塔拉里科将与特德·克鲁兹一起代表这个拥有全美最多黑人数量的州。在塔拉里科击败克罗克特之后,梅内菲告诉他,他需要出现在黑人社区,尽管他提醒说人们会愤怒——对他、对以往的竞选活动、对一个长期忽视他们的民主党。“当你来了,坐下来,闭上嘴,听人们说话,这对他们来说意义重大,”梅内菲说。其他立法者和活动人士对竞选活动在动员这些选民方面做得不够表示担忧。“对我们很多人来说,就像是,好吧,这个白人男孩怎么可能真正、真正地理解这些,他根本没经历过这些处境?”查斯·摩尔(Chas Moore)说。他是奥斯汀正义联盟的联合创始人,与塔拉里科在得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校有过交集。(他说,塔拉里科的说辞从他竞选学生会时就没怎么变过。)风险在于,“他们要么投票给他,”摩尔说,“要么干脆不出现——在我看来,不出现就是给帕克斯顿投票。”

At a rally in Corpus Christi, staff verified guests by sticking gold stars on them—a callback of sorts to Talarico’s days as a public-school educator. Among the nine hundred and sixteen guests was Mailey Gonzalez, a nineteen-year-old who said Talarico reminded her of her own teachers in high school. Although she was excited about Talarico’s campaign, she said she wished he talked more about health-care issues affecting women, including teen pregnancy. What’s more, “it really worries me that he came here and they’re not gonna listen to him as much—especially with Trump coming down,” she said, referring to an upcoming rally with Paxton. “It’s worrying me that it’s going one place, but then it’s just going to backtrack.”

在科珀斯克里斯蒂的一场集会上,工作人员通过给来宾贴金色星星来核验身份——这多少是对塔拉里科公立学校教师生涯的一种呼应。在九百一十六位来宾中,有十九岁的梅莉·冈萨雷斯(Mailey Gonzalez),她说塔拉里科让她想起了自己高中时的老师。尽管她对塔拉里科的竞选感到兴奋,但她说她希望他能多谈谈影响女性的医疗保健问题,包括少女怀孕。此外,“我真的很担心他来了这里,而人们不会那么听他的——尤其是特朗普要来了,”她说,指的是即将举行的帕克斯顿集会。“我担心事情朝一个方向走,然后又倒退了。”

During the primary, Talarico’s team focussed on reaching Latinos; Chuck Rocha, a Talarico adviser, told me it was the most money he’d seen a Texas candidate spend on Spanish-language outreach and ads in his three and a half decades working in politics. He said the campaign had spent roughly equal amounts on Latino and Black outreach, with a focus on the Rio Grande Valley, an area which is more than ninety per cent Latino.

在初选期间,塔拉里科的团队专注于争取拉丁裔选民;塔拉里科的顾问查克·罗查(Chuck Rocha)告诉我,这是他在政界工作三十五年半以来见过的得州候选人在西班牙语外联和广告上花费最多的一次。他说,竞选活动在拉丁裔和黑人外联上的支出大致相当,重点是里奥格兰德河谷地区,该地区拉丁裔人口超过百分之九十。

On Sunday afternoon, Thomas Saenz, a twenty-three-year-old from McAllen who creates life-style content on social media, headed to nearby Weslaco to see Talarico at an event hosted by the national group Voto Latino. A few days earlier, Saenz had been driving up to Fort Worth to see his long-distance boyfriend when he learned of the event, which included a performance by the superstar Mexican norteño band Los Tigres del Norte. Sensing that the event would be huge, he bought an early plane ticket home to try to interview the candidates. (He was unsuccessful in getting an interview with Talarico, and briefly considered sneaking backstage.) Saenz, whose target audience is Latino and Gen Z, felt that Talarico’s name wasn’t very well known in the Valley, compared to Gina Hinojosa or the Tejano musician Bobby Pulido, two Democrats running for governor and for a congressional seat, who also spoke at the concert. “You’d almost think Bobby was running for Senate,” he told me.

周日下午,来自麦卡伦的二十三岁年轻人托马斯·萨恩斯(Thomas Saenz)——他在社交媒体上创作生活方式内容——前往附近的韦斯拉科,参加全国性组织“拉丁裔投票”(Voto Latino)主办的塔拉里科活动。几天前,萨恩斯正开车去沃斯堡看望他的异地男友,途中得知了这个活动,活动包括墨西哥北方音乐巨星老虎乐队(Los Tigres del Norte)的表演。他预感活动规模会很大,于是买了提前回家的机票,试图采访候选人。(他没能采访到塔拉里科,还一度考虑偷偷溜进后台。)萨恩斯的目标受众是拉丁裔和Z世代,他觉得塔拉里科的名字在河谷地区并不太为人所知,相比之下,吉娜·伊诺霍萨(Gina Hinojosa)和特哈诺音乐人博比·普利多(Bobby Pulido)——两位分别竞选州长和国会席位的民主党人——也在音乐会上发了言。“你几乎会以为博比在竞选参议员,”他告诉我。

Pulido, a centrist favored to win in a conservatively drawn district that encompasses Edinburg and Weslaco, pointed out that if Talarico wins on Tuesday, “it will be because of the Latino vote.” His community, Pulido said, is rejecting extremism—he’s campaigned effectively against both the excesses of the left and the right, and he suggested that Talarico was doing the same. When Talarico came onstage, and addressed his audience of over eight thousand people, he stuck to his more anodyne fare, vowing to reduce the influence of money in politics; he did not mention immigration at all.“Puro 956!” he said, referencing the informal slogan of the R.G.V.

普利多是一位中间派,在一个保守划分的选区(涵盖爱丁堡和韦斯拉科)中被看好获胜。他指出,如果塔拉里科在周二获胜,“那将是因为拉丁裔的选票。”普利多说,他的社区正在拒绝极端主义——他有效地同时反对了左翼和右翼的过度行为,并暗示塔拉里科也在做同样的事。当塔拉里科上台,向超过八千名观众讲话时,他坚持了他那套更温和的内容,誓言要减少金钱对政治的影响;他完全没有提到移民问题。“纯正的956!”他说,引用了里奥格兰德河谷的非正式口号。

Some forty minutes away, at an event space in Brownsville just yards from the border with Mexico, Talarico’s supporters grew impatient waiting for the candidate. The room was less than half full, with roughly three hundred people; Talarico came onstage around an hour after the event’s start time. As he criticized Paxton for enriching himself in office, Martha de la Garza and her friend Analisa Martinez decided to leave—they’d seen him speak before. Outside, Martinez quickly mentioned how the ICE raids had driven down business at the secondhand store where she works.

大约四十分钟车程外,在布朗斯维尔一个距离墨西哥边境仅几码的活动场地,塔拉里科的支持者们等得不耐烦了。房间里上座率不到一半,大约有三百人;塔拉里科在活动开始大约一小时后才上台。当他批评帕克斯顿在任内中饱私囊时,玛莎·德拉加尔萨(Martha de la Garza)和她的朋友安娜丽莎·马丁内斯(Analisa Martinez)决定离开——她们以前听过他演讲。在外面,马丁内斯很快提到ICE突袭行动如何导致她工作的二手店生意下滑。

“It is ugly here,” de la Garza agreed. She knew people who worked in immigration enforcement, including one of her friends. “He can’t stand it,” she said. “We talked about it over tequila and whiskey, and yeah, he’s fucking livid. His family is upset with him, but he pays for their bills.” Still, she said, he is planning to vote for Talarico. ♦

“这里的情况很糟糕,”德拉加尔萨表示同意。她认识一些从事移民执法工作的人,包括她的一个朋友。“他受不了了,”她说。“我们喝着龙舌兰和威士忌聊过这件事,是的,他气炸了。他的家人对他不满,但家里的账单是他付的。”尽管如此,她说,他打算投票给塔拉里科。♦

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