Open Questions

Instead of Taking Your Job, A.I. Might Transform It

人工智能或许不会抢走你的工作,而是改变它
Proponents and critics of artificial intelligence often compare the technology to industrial automation—really, it’s more like an intern.
人工智能的支持者和批评者常将这项技术比作工业自动化——其实,它更像一个实习生。
Illustration by Shira Inbar

One summer during high school, I took a temporary job writing computer programs for a consulting firm. Each morning, I drove through rush-hour traffic to an office park near Princeton, New Jersey, on the crowded Route 1 corridor. At a desk in some sort of equipment room, I coded quick-and-dirty database tools for internal use. One of my programs simplified the process of logging hours into timesheets. Another tracked inventory for the I.T. department. My role was to find small ways to improve the lives of my co-workers.

高中有一年夏天,我在一家咨询公司找了份临时工作,帮他们写计算机程序。每天早上,我开车穿过早高峰的车流,沿着拥挤的1号公路,前往新泽西州普林斯顿附近的一个办公园区。我坐在一间类似设备间的屋子里,对着电脑编写一些粗糙但能用的数据库工具,供内部使用。我写的一个程序简化了往考勤表里录入工时的流程,另一个则帮IT部门追踪库存。我的职责就是找到一些小办法,让同事们的工作更轻松一些。

I hadn’t thought about that job in a long while, but it came to mind recently as I grappled with the potential economic impact of artificial intelligence. Proponents and critics of A.I. often compare the technology to industrial automation: just as machines eliminated many jobs that depended on human brawn, such as weaving or mining, A.I. will eliminate jobs that require human brains. In February, Mustafa Suleyman, the C.E.O. of Microsoft AI, predicted that A.I. will deliver “human-level performance on most if not all professional tasks” within the next twelve to eighteen months. Anthropic’s C.E.O., Dario Amodei, has suggested that fifty per cent of entry-level white-collar work will be automated by the end of the decade. “A lot of jobs will go away,” Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI, said last summer. (OpenAI has an agreement with Condé Nast, the owner of The New Yorker, which allows OpenAI to display its content in search results for a limited term.)

我已经很久没想起那份工作了,但最近在思考人工智能可能带来的经济影响时,它又浮现在脑海里。AI的支持者和批评者常将这项技术比作工业自动化:正如机器淘汰了许多依赖人力的工作,比如纺织或采矿,AI也将淘汰那些依赖人脑的工作。今年二月,微软人工智能首席执行官穆斯塔法·苏莱曼(Mustafa Suleyman)预测,在未来十二到十八个月内,AI将在“大多数(即便不是全部)专业任务上达到人类水平的表现”。Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代(Dario Amodei)则表示,到本十年末,百分之五十的初级白领工作将被自动化。“很多工作会消失,”OpenAI的负责人山姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)去年夏天说。(OpenAI与《纽约客》所属的康泰纳仕集团有协议,允许OpenAI在有限期限内于搜索结果中展示其内容。)

Recently, however, I’ve sensed a shift in this discourse. “A.I. is creating jobs,” the C.E.O. of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, said in an April interview. “Anybody who is saying that A.I. is wiping out jobs is scaring people.” He later said that C.E.O.s who have blamed layoffs on A.I. are lazy, and that such claims were “just a way for them to sound smart.” Even Altman said in May that he was “delighted to be wrong” about A.I. eliminating large numbers of jobs. Public-relations concerns are probably playing a key role here: eighty per cent of Americans are now somewhat or very concerned about A.I., according to a recent Quinnipiac poll, and a majority think that this technology will cause more harm than good in their daily lives. But, more fundamentally, we may be starting to realize that the automation analogy was never the right way to explain A.I.’s impacts.

不过,最近我察觉到这种论调有所转变。“AI正在创造就业,”英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在四月的一次采访中说,“任何说AI在消灭工作的人,都是在吓唬人。”他后来还说,那些将裁员归咎于AI的首席执行官们很懒惰,这种说法“不过是他们让自己显得聪明的说辞”。就连阿尔特曼也在五月表示,对于AI会消灭大量工作岗位的判断,他“很高兴自己错了”。公关考量很可能在其中起了关键作用:根据昆尼皮亚克大学最近的一项民调,百分之八十的美国人对AI感到有些担忧或非常担忧,大多数人认为这项技术给日常生活带来的弊大于利。但更根本的是,我们或许开始意识到,用自动化来类比AI的影响,从来就不是一个恰当的解释。

In search of a better understanding of our current moment, I recently went looking for A.I. adopters outside the tech industry. I asked the C.E.O. of a journalism nonprofit how he’s using A.I., and he showed me a web-based tool that he vibe-coded using Claude Code, Anthropic’s programming agent. Each morning, the tool automatically summarizes articles related to higher education, suggesting potential trends and angles that could warrant further investigation. It then e-mails a brief to him and his managing editors. A recent brief highlighted a Los Angeles Times story about a data breach of a popular learning management system called Canvas. It suggested that the editors consider sending a Freedom of Information Act request to state school systems that were impacted, asking for correspondence with the system’s parent company. “Did anyone raise red flags?” it asked. The tool is hardly revelatory, and the C.E.O. said that he “would never try to turn it into a public-facing product,” but it highlights useful information and sparks ideas. “It’s like a student or an intern,” he said.

为了更好理解我们当下的处境,我最近特意去寻找科技行业之外的AI使用者。我问一家非营利新闻机构的CEO他是怎么用AI的,他给我看了一个基于网页的工具,是他用Anthropic的编程智能体Claude Code“氛围编码”做出来的。每天早上,这个工具会自动总结与高等教育相关的文章,提示可能值得深入调查的趋势和角度,然后把简报用邮件发给他和他的执行主编们。最近一份简报重点提到《洛杉矶时报》一篇关于流行学习管理系统Canvas数据泄露的报道,建议编辑们考虑向受影响的州立学校系统提交《信息自由法》申请,索要它们与Canvas母公司之间的通信记录。“有没有人发出过警告?”简报里这样问道。这个工具谈不上有什么洞见,那位CEO也说“绝不会试图把它变成面向公众的产品”,但它能标出有用的信息,激发想法。“它就像一个学生,或者一个实习生,”他说。

Lately, the C.E.O. has been thinking about another inefficiency that A.I. could address. His reporters fill out regular forms to summarize the impact of their work to send to the organization’s funders. Because he has access to Claude Code, he began imagining a bot that would solicit this information in a more informal way. Perhaps reporters could type their updates directly into Slack, the messaging platform that they already use, and the bot could fill out the form on their behalf. “It won’t be hard,” he told me. When I followed up with him a couple of weeks later, he confirmed that he had indeed created a tool to help reporters draft communications with funders. (It wasn’t yet integrated with Slack.)

最近,这位CEO又在琢磨另一个AI可以解决的效率问题。他的记者们需要定期填写表格,总结自己工作的影响力,好发给机构的资助方。因为他有Claude Code的权限,便开始设想做一个机器人,用更非正式的方式来收集这些信息。也许记者们可以直接在他们已经在用的通讯平台Slack里输入更新内容,然后由机器人代填表格。“这不会很难,”他对我说。几周后我再次联系他时,他确认自己确实做出了一个工具,帮助记者起草给资助方的沟通内容。(不过还没和Slack打通。)

Another A.I. enthusiast, the co-owner and chairman of a shipping-logistics company, told me about a “big headache” that was vexing his C.F.O. “We get payments from thousands of clients,” he said. “Often, they don’t note what they’re paying us for.” The company had given up on changing clients’ behavior; instead, four staffers were assigned to match mystery checks to corresponding invoices. (I couldn’t help but think of a Sisyphean number-filing task in “Severance,” the dystopian Apple TV+ series set in a workplace.) But, earlier this year, the company gave the I.T. team access to A.I.-powered coding agents. Staffers quickly built a custom tool that automated “essentially eighty per cent” of the matching issues on a recent project, the co-owner said. He was now in the process of reassigning three-quarters of his human payment-matchers to more fruitful tasks. These examples were not the digital equivalent of a power loom, making large numbers of human jobs superfluous. Turns out, A.I. was assisting these small businesses in roughly the same way that my teen-age self had helped that consulting company—by hacking together whatever was useful.

另一位AI爱好者是一家航运物流公司的共同所有人和董事长,他跟我讲了一件让公司CFO头疼不已的“大麻烦”。“我们从几千个客户那里收款,”他说,“但他们常常不注明付的是什么钱。”公司已经放弃改变客户的行为了,转而安排四名员工专门负责将那些来路不明的支票与对应的发票匹配起来。(我忍不住想起Apple TV+那部以职场为背景的反乌托邦剧集《人生切割术》里,一项永无止境的数字归档任务。)但今年早些时候,公司让IT团队用上了AI驱动的编程智能体。这位共同所有人说,员工们很快做出了一个定制工具,在最近一个项目上“基本上百分之八十”的匹配问题都实现了自动化。他现在正着手将四分之三的人工对账员重新分配到更有成效的岗位上去。这些例子并非动力织布机的数字翻版,没有让大量人类岗位变得多余。事实证明,AI帮助这些小企业的方式,大致就像少年时代的我帮助那家咨询公司一样——把任何有用的东西拼凑出来。

The ability to vibe-code custom software using A.I. might be new, but it actually echoes a much older vision for personal computers. In the seventies, when these machines were first introduced, easy-to-learn programming languages such as BASIC—meaning “beginner’s all-purpose symbolic instruction code”—were meant to empower any user to write their own programs. A nineteen-year-old Bill Gates, alongside his friend Paul Allen, developed a version of BASIC to run on the Altair 8800, the very first commercially viable personal computer; they soon formed a company together that they called Micro-Soft. Steve Wozniak created his own version of BASIC for the Apple I, which he and Steve Jobs released a year later. The Apple II shipped with a copy of BASIC hard-coded into its memory chips. “That means you can begin writing your own programs the first evening, even if you’ve had no previous computer experience,” an ad declared.

用AI进行氛围编码来定制软件的能力或许是新的,但它其实呼应了一个关于个人电脑的、古老得多的愿景。上世纪七十年代,当这些机器刚刚问世时,像BASIC这样易于学习的编程语言——意为“初学者通用符号指令代码”——旨在让任何用户都能编写自己的程序。十九岁的比尔·盖茨和朋友保罗·艾伦开发了一个能在Altair 8800上运行的BASIC版本,那是第一台商业上可行的个人电脑;他们很快合伙成立了一家公司,起名“微软”。史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克为一年后与史蒂夫·乔布斯共同发布的Apple I编写了自己的BASIC版本。Apple II的存储芯片里更是出厂就硬编码了一份BASIC。“这意味着,即使你此前毫无计算机经验,也能在第一个晚上就开始编写自己的程序,”一则广告这样宣称。

This idea of bespoke computer programs made sense. Altair and Apple couldn’t anticipate every potential use for their machines, so why not let individuals decide whether they wanted to, say, analyze business data, store recipes, or simulate space battles? In practice, however, even an “easy” programming language like BASIC proved hard for most normal people to master. A minor mistake could crash an entire program. In the end, personal computing followed a different path. In 1979, a newly formed company called Software Arts developed VisiCalc, the first electronic spreadsheet program, which cost a hundred dollars and arrived on a floppy disk. The program was a profound improvement on paper ledgers, and it became the first “killer app,” selling more than seven hundred thousand copies in less than six years. VisiCalc was more powerful than anything an average user could program in BASIC, and it prompted a pivot away from D.I.Y. coding in favor of professional programs. A vast and lucrative software industry emerged, and the idea of the average person dreaming up their own custom programs was all but forgotten—that is, until generative A.I. came along. Arguably, the nonprofit C.E.O. and the shipping executive were returning to the original vision of custom computation.

这种定制计算机程序的想法不无道理。Altair和苹果无法预见自家机器的每一种潜在用途,那何不让个人自己决定,是想分析商业数据、存储食谱,还是模拟太空大战呢?然而在实践中,即便是像BASIC这样“简单”的编程语言,对大多数普通人来说也还是太难掌握。一个小错误就可能导致整个程序崩溃。最终,个人计算机走上了一条不同的道路。1979年,一家新成立的名为Software Arts的公司开发出了VisiCalc,这是第一款电子表格程序,售价一百美元,装在一张软盘里。这个程序相比纸质账本是一次深刻的进步,成为史上第一个“杀手级应用”,在不到六年时间里卖出了超过七十万份。VisiCalc比普通用户用BASIC能写出的任何程序都更强大,它促使人们从DIY编程转向使用专业程序。一个庞大而利润丰厚的软件产业由此兴起,普通人自己构想定制程序的想法几乎被遗忘——直到生成式AI出现。可以说,那位非营利机构的CEO和那位航运公司高管,正在回归定制计算的原始愿景。

I pitched my theory—that A.I. is not so much replacing workers as equipping them with bespoke tools—to Taylor Pearson, a consultant who writes a popular newsletter called “The Interesting Times,” about the intersection of business and technology. He shared my skepticism about the idea that artificial intelligence is causing some sort of workplace apocalypse. At a recent conference for small-business owners, for example, he didn’t hear much about A.I. taking jobs; the next closest thing, he said, was that some companies were cancelling I.T. contracts because chatbots were helping them solve simple tech problems. But he agreed that vibe-coded custom software is increasingly ubiquitous. He gave the example of a company that rents dumpsters. It recently replaced a commercial platform that managed its customers with a vibe-coded version that was better at detecting fraud. (Apparently, it’s common for fraudsters to offer dumpsters at a big discount, collect a client’s money, and then rent an actual dumpster using a stolen credit card.) But Pearson thought that my theory didn’t go far enough. In recent months, he has been writing about a new style of A.I. collaboration. He doesn’t think it’s going to eliminate our jobs—but, as soon became clear when we spoke, it certainly has the power to transform them.

我把自己的理论——AI与其说是在取代工作者,不如说是在用定制工具武装他们——讲给了泰勒·皮尔逊(Taylor Pearson)听。他是一位咨询顾问,运营着一份颇受欢迎的通讯简报《有趣时代》,内容聚焦商业与技术的交叉领域。他和我一样,对人工智能正在引发某种职场末日的说法持怀疑态度。比如,在最近一次面向小企业主的会议上,他几乎没听到什么关于AI抢走工作的讨论;他说,最接近的情况是,有些公司因为聊天机器人能帮他们解决简单的技术问题,而取消了IT服务合同。但他也认同,氛围编码的定制软件正变得越来越无处不在。他举了一家出租垃圾箱的公司为例。这家公司最近用一个氛围编码的版本替换了管理客户的商业平台,新版本在识别欺诈方面更胜一筹。(显然,骗子通常会以大幅折扣提供垃圾箱,收了客户的钱,然后用偷来的信用卡去租一个真的垃圾箱。)但皮尔逊认为我的理论还不够深入。近几个月来,他一直在写一种新型的AI协作方式。他不认为这会消灭我们的工作——但当我们交谈时,很快就清楚地看到,它确实有能力改变我们的工作。

Earlier this year, Pearson needed to replace his house’s central air-conditioning system, so he obtained quotes from several HVAC companies. He told me that, to him, the proposals were “all gobbledygook.” He decided to fire up Claude Code—not to write software but to solve the real-world problem of deciding which A.C. unit to buy. A.I. agents like Claude Code differ from standard chatbots in a couple of main ways. First, they combine a standard large language model with a sophisticated control program, sometimes called the harness, that can execute multiple steps on the user’s behalf. (The harness might ask the L.L.M. to create a step-by-step plan, request its help in executing each step, and then check the validity of the results.) The harness may also have permission to read and write files, and to access certain tools, on the user’s computer. “It gives the model ‘hands’ to be able to do things,” Pearson told me. In the process, A.I. becomes less like an oracle that answers questions and more like a work partner.

今年早些时候,皮尔逊需要更换家里的中央空调系统,于是向几家暖通空调公司要了报价。他告诉我,对他来说,那些方案“全是天书”。他决定启动Claude Code——不是为了写软件,而是为了解决“该买哪台空调”这个现实世界的问题。像Claude Code这样的AI智能体与标准聊天机器人有几个主要区别。首先,它们将一个标准的大语言模型与一个复杂的控制程序(有时被称为“缰绳”)结合起来,这个控制程序可以代表用户执行多个步骤。(“缰绳”可能会要求大语言模型制定一个分步计划,请求它协助执行每一步,然后检查结果的有效性。)“缰绳”还可能被授权读写用户电脑上的文件,并访问某些工具。“它给了模型‘手’,让它能去做事情,”皮尔逊告诉我。在这个过程中,AI变得更像一个工作伙伴,而不是一个回答问题的神谕。

Pearson gave the coding agent access to a folder containing the PDFs of all the quotes he had received. He asked it to read them and identify the specific models of A.C. systems that they referenced. The agent then searched the internet, found each system’s user manual, and drafted a report on their features. As the agent worked, it created a useful knowledge base in the form of subfolders and text files on Pearson’s computer. When he asked if a particular unit would fit between his house and his neighbor’s fence, for example, the agent had easy access to the relevant information.

皮尔逊让编程智能体访问了一个文件夹,里面存着他收到的所有报价单的PDF文件。他要求它阅读这些文件,找出其中提到的空调系统具体型号。智能体随后搜索了互联网,找到了每个系统的用户手册,并起草了一份关于它们各自特性的报告。在工作的过程中,智能体在皮尔逊的电脑上以子文件夹和文本文件的形式,创建了一个有用的知识库。比如,当他问某个型号是否能装进他家房子和邻居栅栏之间的空间时,智能体就能轻松获取相关信息。

Pearson didn’t trust Claude Code to make the decision for him, though. These agents “do and say a lot of boneheaded things, and change their minds a lot,” he said. This means that they require close supervision and are best at more mechanistic tasks. Pearson estimates that it took twenty different chat sessions to complete the A.C. project. But his decision was far better informed than if he’d simply picked one of the quotes—and easier to make than if he had attempted to read all of those A.C. manuals himself. He now uses Claude Code to support everyday tasks on a regular basis. Recently, it helped him research and compare fifty different exchange-traded funds—a complicated endeavor that drew on data from multiple websites and involved using a script, a simple computer program, to calculate some statistics. He also uses Claude Code to help edit his newsletter, sometimes by giving it verbal commands such as “I want to move this piece up and this piece back, and take this section out and use it in this next piece.” The A.I. isn’t doing Pearson’s job for him, but it helps him do the job better. “The percentage of my time spent on more cognitively demanding and interesting things is probably up somewhat,” he said. Pearson calls this approach “freestyle work” because it reminds him of a type of freestyle chess, in which humans collaborate with computers to play the game at a higher level.

不过,皮尔逊并不信任Claude Code来替他做决定。这些智能体“会做很多蠢事,说很多蠢话,而且经常改变主意,”他说。这意味着它们需要密切监督,最适合做那些更机械化的任务。皮尔逊估计,完成这个空调项目总共用了大约二十次不同的对话。但他的决定,比起随便选一份报价要明智得多——也比他试图自己去读那些空调手册要轻松得多。他现在经常使用Claude Code来辅助日常事务。最近,它帮他研究并比较了五十种不同的交易所交易基金——这是一项复杂的任务,需要从多个网站抓取数据,还涉及用一个脚本(一种简单的计算机程序)来计算一些统计数据。他还用Claude Code来帮助编辑他的简报,有时会直接给它口头指令,比如“我想把这篇往前挪,那篇往后放,把这段删掉,用到下一篇里。”AI不是在替皮尔逊做他的工作,而是帮助他把工作做得更好。“我花在认知要求更高、更有趣的事情上的时间比例,大概有所上升,”他说。皮尔逊把这种方法称为“自由式工作”,因为这让他想起一种自由式国际象棋,人类与计算机协作,将棋局下到一个更高的水平。

It’s not yet clear that freestyle work will come to your workplace anytime soon. (Anthropic seems to think it will: earlier this year, it released Claude Cowork, a more office-worker-friendly version of Claude Code.) But vibe-coded custom software is so useful, so tailored to our specific needs, that its spread is almost inevitable—a reality that seems to be reflected in sharp stock declines experienced by web-based software companies. A.I. really is changing work—and if we all start barking commands at our personal A.I. agents, our jobs could get a lot weirder. But, so far, we don’t seem to be hurtling toward the darker vision of a workforce hollowed out by this technology. My summer job in New Jersey, all those years ago, didn’t put any consultants out of work. I like to think that it just made their efforts a little deeper. ♦

自由式工作是否会很快进入你的职场,目前还不清楚。(Anthropic似乎认为会:今年早些时候,它发布了Claude Cowork,一个对办公室员工更友好的Claude Code版本。)但氛围编码的定制软件如此有用,如此贴合我们的具体需求,它的普及几乎是不可避免的——这一现实似乎也反映在基于网页的软件公司股价的急剧下跌中。AI确实在改变工作——如果我们都开始对着自己的个人AI智能体发号施令,我们的工作可能会变得古怪得多。但到目前为止,我们似乎并没有朝着这项技术掏空劳动力的黑暗愿景猛冲。那么多年前我在新泽西的那份暑期工,并没有让任何咨询顾问失业。我愿意相信,它只是让他们的努力变得稍微深入了一些。♦

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