Letter from Israel

How Netanyahu’s Top General Became His Strongest Challenger

内塔尼亚胡的顶级将领,如何成为他最强劲的挑战者
Gadi Eisenkot, whose view of war is shaped by the loss of his son, is, in manner and character, the anti-Bibi.
加迪·艾森科特(Gadi Eisenkot)对战争的看法深受丧子之痛的影响,其举止与性格,堪称反内塔尼亚胡(anti-Bibi)的化身。
A portrait of a person
Photograph by Amit Elkayam for The New Yorker

It’s a warm, buggy night in Kfar HaNagid, a coastal village named for Shmuel HaNagid, the eminent poet, scholar, warrior, and statesman of medieval al-Andalus. A mature crowd of several hundred has gathered on the village green. They sit restively in white plastic chairs, awaiting the arrival of Gadi Eisenkot, a retired chief of the Israel Defense Forces who currently appears to have the best chance of unseating Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving Prime Minister in the history of the state. The elections are scheduled for October 27th. Eisenkot is running late.

这是卡法尔·哈纳吉德(Kfar HaNagid)一个温暖、虫鸣阵阵的夜晚。这座沿海村庄以中世纪安达卢斯的杰出诗人、学者、战士和政治家什穆埃尔·哈纳吉德(Shmuel HaNagid)命名。数百名中老年民众聚集在村中的绿地上,焦躁地坐在白色塑料椅上,等待加迪·艾森科特的到来。艾森科特是以色列国防军(Israel Defense Forces)退役总参谋长,目前看来,他最有可能在选举中击败以色列建国以来任期最长的总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)。选举定于10月27日举行,艾森科特已经迟到了。

Israeli pop songs blare over the loudspeakers, and the air is thick with political talk. The sources of alarm seem inexhaustible: the fighting up north in Lebanon; the Trump Administration’s turn from frenetic negotiations with the newly emboldened regime in Tehran to a prolonged bombing campaign; Netanyahu’s deals of convenience with the ultra-Orthodox, a crucial component of his voting bloc; the deepening hostility toward Israel across the ideological spectrum and all over the world. What is far more rarely discussed, in Kfar HaNagid and elsewhere, is the colossal human suffering and devastation in the Gaza Strip and the mayhem committed daily against Palestinians by settlers in villages throughout the West Bank.

扩音器里高声播放着以色列流行歌曲,空气中弥漫着政治讨论。警讯的来源似乎无穷无尽:北部黎巴嫩的战事;特朗普政府从与新近壮胆的德黑兰政权疯狂谈判,转向一场持久的轰炸行动;内塔尼亚胡与极端正统派的权宜交易,后者是其票仓的关键组成部分;以及世界各地、各意识形态光谱对以色列日益加深的敌意。而在卡法尔·哈纳吉德及其他地方,人们极少讨论的是加沙地带巨大的人道苦难与毁灭,以及约旦河西岸各村镇里,定居者日复一日对巴勒斯坦人施加的暴行。

Finally, Eisenkot arrives. He is sixty-six, a man of broad belly and pained expression. When he smiles, he winces as if from a twinge of sciatica. He is dressed in a dark polo shirt, his post-military uniform. Eisenkot’s parents were Moroccan immigrants of modest means. He was born in Tiberias and grew up in Eilat, two cities considered to be on the Israeli periphery. Were Eisenkot to win, he would be the first Prime Minister with such a background.

艾森科特终于到了。他六十六岁,大腹便便,神情痛苦。他微笑时,会像坐骨神经痛发作一样皱起眉头。他身穿深色Polo衫,这是他的退役后制服。艾森科特的父母是家境普通的摩洛哥移民。他出生在提比里亚(Tiberias),在埃拉特(Eilat)长大,这两座城市都被视为以色列的边缘地带。如果艾森科特胜选,他将成为首位有此背景的总理。

This presents a problem for Netanyahu. Despite growing up in an affluent neighborhood in Jerusalem, and being the Ashkenazi son of a prominent historian of the Spanish Inquisition, Netanyahu has long positioned himself, and his Likud Party, as the security-minded champion of the working class, the pious, the voiceless, and the Mizrahim, who came to Israel from Jewish communities in predominantly Muslim countries. Most analysts here believe that, in a close election, Eisenkot can prevail if he attracts at least some “soft right” voters in provincial cities like Kiryat Shmona, Ofakim, Ashdod, Nahariya, and Dimona. In many traditional Likud strongholds, the journalist Hilo Glazer wrote in Haaretz, Eisenkot is described by his supporters as dialina, Moroccan Arabic for “one of us.”

这对内塔尼亚胡构成了一个问题。尽管在耶路撒冷一个富裕社区长大,并且是研究西班牙宗教裁判所的著名历史学家的阿什肯纳兹犹太人(Ashkenazi)之子,内塔尼亚胡长期以来将自己及其利库德集团(Likud Party),定位为工人阶级、虔诚教徒、无声者和米兹拉希犹太人(Mizrahim,来自穆斯林占多数的国家的犹太社区)的安全捍卫者。这里的大多数分析人士认为,在一场势均力敌的选举中,如果艾森科特能吸引到至少部分来自基尔亚特什姆纳(Kiryat Shmona)、奥法基姆(Ofakim)、阿什杜德(Ashdod)、纳哈里亚(Nahariya)和迪莫纳(Dimona)等外省城市的“温和右翼”选民,他就能获胜。记者希洛·格拉泽(Hilo Glazer)在《国土报》(Haaretz)上写道,在许多传统的利库德集团票仓,艾森科特的支持者用摩洛哥阿拉伯语“dialina”来形容他,意为“我们中的一员”。

The crowd applauds lightly as Eisenkot mounts a small makeshift stage. He has spent much of the day in the city of Ashkelon, he explains, where he attended the funeral of a young Army captain named David Hazutt, who was killed in battle “around dawn” in Lebanon.

艾森科特登上一个临时搭建的小舞台,人群报以轻轻的掌声。他解释说,他白天大部分时间都在阿什凯隆(Ashkelon)市,参加了一位名叫大卫·哈祖特(David Hazutt)的年轻陆军上尉的葬礼,这位上尉“大约在黎明时分”在黎巴嫩阵亡。

“I didn’t know him personally, but the family asked me to attend,” Eisenkot says. His cadence is measured, his tone solemn. “He’d lost his father and was his mother’s only son, with one sister. His mother had agreed to sign the consent form allowing him to serve in a combat role, because he had insisted. He volunteered for a combat unit in the Golani Brigade.” As everyone at the gathering knows, this was Eisenkot’s outfit, too, and a populist signifier in Israel, the “people’s brigade.”

“我个人不认识他,但他的家人邀请我参加,”艾森科特说。他的语速平缓,语调肃穆。“他失去了父亲,是他母亲的独子,只有一个妹妹。他母亲同意签署了同意书,允许他在战斗岗位服役,因为他坚持要去。他自愿加入了戈兰尼旅(Golani Brigade)的一个战斗单位。”在场的每个人都知道,这也是艾森科特的老部队,在以色列是一个民粹主义的象征,“人民的旅”。

Over the next hour, Eisenkot delivers his speech and answers questions. Routine stuff. He has neither Netanyahu’s practiced eloquence nor his fluency in English, and he has little in common with the firebrands of an earlier era, such as Menachem Begin. He is just short of dull and makes a virtue of it. Last year, he founded a party called Yashar—the name meaning straight, upright, just. At the lectern, he briskly ticks through his themes and campaign promises, among them a pledge to restore Israel as a “Jewish, democratic, progressive, and liberal state.” This sort of phrase is rarely heard from Netanyahu, much less from two of his most racist and reactionary ministers: Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security, and Bezalel Smotrich, the minister of finance. Both are unapologetic in their support for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the annexation of the West Bank.

在接下来的一个小时里,艾森科特发表了演讲并回答问题。都是些常规内容。他既没有内塔尼亚胡那训练有素的雄辩口才,也没有后者流利的英语,与梅纳赫姆·贝京(Menachem Begin)等更早时代的煽动家也几乎没有共同之处。他近乎乏味,并以此作为一种美德。去年,他创立了一个名为“亚沙尔”(Yashar)的政党——这个名字意为正直、诚实、公正。在讲台上,他轻快地逐一列举他的主题和竞选承诺,其中包括誓言要将以色列恢复为一个“犹太的、民主的、进步的、自由的国家”。这类措辞很少从内塔尼亚胡口中听到,更不用说来自他最种族主义、最反动的两位部长:国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔(Itamar Ben-Gvir)和财政部长比撒列·斯莫特里赫(Bezalel Smotrich)。这两人都毫不掩饰地支持对加沙进行种族清洗和吞并约旦河西岸。

Eisenkot is selling himself as the humble soldier, a political novice untainted by corruption or duplicity. After forty-one years in the Israel Defense Forces, including a stint under Netanyahu as chief of the general staff, the military’s highest post, Eisenkot served in the Knesset from 2022 to 2025. During that brief tenure, he says, he discovered that “Israeli democracy is far more fragile than I had imagined.”

艾森科特将自己推销为一名谦逊的士兵,一个未受腐败或欺骗玷污的政治新手。在以色列国防军服役四十一年后,包括在内塔尼亚胡手下担任总参谋长这一军队最高职务,艾森科特于2022年至2025年间在以色列议会(Knesset)任职。他说,在那段短暂的任期内,他发现“以色列的民主远比我想象的要脆弱得多”。
A person being embraced by a crowd.
Given the vagaries of coalition politics, Eisenkot could emerge from the election as the opposition’s dominant figure and still fail to assemble a government.
考虑到联合政府政治的变幻莫测,艾森科特可能会在选举后成为反对派的主导人物,却仍然无法组建政府。
Photograph by Amit Elkayam for The New Yorker

Since the collapse of the Oslo peace process and the outbreak of the second intifada, a generation ago, popular opinion has moved steadily rightward. By contemporary Israeli standards, Eisenkot can plausibly be described as a small-“d” democrat of the center-left. At the urging of his consultants, and in response to the political realities of post-October 7th Israel, he is tacking further toward the center. He seldom voices reservations about the scale and prosecution of the war in Gaza. He recently called New York’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani, antisemitic for asking the federal government to arrest Netanyahu under an International Criminal Court warrant. Eisenkot also avoids the language of a two-state solution, at least as an impending possibility. In June, he told an interviewer for Channel 12’s “Meet the Press,” “I have never said two states for two peoples, because I understand the depth of this religious-national-social conflict, and anyone who talks about ‘peace now’ and two states doesn’t understand the conflict.”

自奥斯陆和平进程崩溃和第二次巴勒斯坦大起义(intifada)爆发以来,已过去了一代人的时间,民意持续右转。按照当代以色列的标准,艾森科特可以被合理地描述为一位中左翼的小“d”民主派(democrat)。在顾问的敦促下,并为了回应10月7日后以色列的政治现实,他正进一步向中间靠拢。他很少对加沙战争的规模和实施方式表达保留意见。他最近称纽约市长佐兰·马姆达尼(Zohran Mamdani)为反犹主义者,因为后者要求联邦政府根据国际刑事法院(International Criminal Court)的逮捕令逮捕内塔尼亚胡。艾森科特也避免使用“两国方案”的措辞,至少不将其作为一个迫近的可能性。六月,他告诉第12频道“会见媒体”节目的一位采访者:“我从未说过‘两个民族,两个国家’,因为我理解这场宗教-民族-社会冲突的深度,任何谈论‘现在和平’和两个国家的人都不理解这场冲突。”

As I followed Eisenkot’s campaign and spoke with him at length, it became clear that the most adhesive aspect of his appeal had little to do with ideology or policy. If he wins (and that, despite recent surges in the polls, is far from assured, considering Netanyahu’s political skills), it will be because he is, in manner and character, the anti-Bibi. What’s more, he reflects back to many Israelis something of themselves. Eisenkot is a broken man. He has suffered profound loss. In no small measure, he is a politician whose deepest connection to Israeli voters is his grief.

在我追踪艾森科特的竞选活动并与他长谈后,我清楚地认识到,他吸引力中最具粘性的部分与意识形态或政策关系不大。如果他获胜(尽管近期民调支持率飙升,但考虑到内塔尼亚胡的政治技巧,这远非板上钉钉),那将是因为他的举止和性格是反内塔尼亚胡的。更重要的是,他向许多以色列人反映了他们自身的某些东西。艾森科特是一个心碎之人。他承受了巨大的丧亲之痛。在很大程度上,他是一位与以色列选民最深的连接点在于其悲痛的政客。

Shortly after six-thirty in the morning on October 7, 2023, Eisenkot was at home in Herzliya, north of Tel Aviv, when news reports started arriving from southern Israel. Thousands of Hamas militants, led by the élite Nukhba forces, had just broken through the Gaza fence at more than a hundred points. They entered Israel by land on motorcycles and in pickup trucks, by sea in motorboats, and by air on motorized paragliders. With astonishing speed, they infiltrated some twenty kibbutzim and the small city of Sderot. A killing spree began. There were soon reports on radio and television of families locking themselves in their safe rooms, begging by phone for help. For hours, little came.

2023年10月7日清晨六点半刚过,艾森科特正在特拉维夫以北赫兹利亚(Herzliya)的家中,这时来自以色列南部的新闻报道开始传来。数千名哈马斯(Hamas)武装分子,在精锐的努赫巴(Nukhba)部队带领下,刚刚从一百多个点突破了加沙隔离墙。他们通过陆路骑摩托车和乘坐皮卡、海路乘摩托艇、空路乘动力滑翔伞进入以色列。他们以惊人的速度渗透了大约二十个基布兹(kibbutzim)和小城斯德洛特(Sderot)。一场杀戮狂欢开始了。广播和电视上很快出现了关于家庭将自己锁在安全屋里,通过电话乞求帮助的报道。数小时内,救援几乎没有到来。

As Eisenkot absorbed those first reports, he called out to one of his five children, his twenty-five-year-old son, Gal.

当艾森科特消化着这些最初的报道时,他喊了他的五个孩子之一,他二十五岁的儿子,加尔(Gal)。

“Gal, wake up,” he said. “It’s war.”

“加尔,醒醒,”他说。“战争来了。”

“What are you talking about?” Gal said.

“你在说什么?”加尔说。

“It’s war,” Eisenkot said again.

“战争来了,”艾森科特又说了一遍。

Gal, who was studying bioinformatics at Tel Aviv University, was home for the weekend. “His idea, his dream, was to be either a doctor or a scientist,” Eisenkot told me.

加尔当时在特拉维夫大学学习生物信息学,周末回家。“他的想法,他的梦想,是成为一名医生或科学家,”艾森科特告诉我。

He drove Gal to his apartment in Tel Aviv to collect his uniform and gear and then took him to a rendezvous point where he joined his fellow-reservists. Gal had been trained as a combat medic.

他开车送加尔到特拉维夫的公寓取制服和装备,然后把他送到一个集合点,加尔在那里与他的预备役战友会合。加尔接受过战斗医护兵的训练。

Four days later, with a ground invasion of Gaza imminent and an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon under consideration, Netanyahu asked Eisenkot to become part of a small war cabinet. Eisenkot had served under Netanyahu as chief of the general staff from February, 2015, to January, 2019, but was now a political opponent. Netanyahu hoped to present a united front to a deeply divided public, much of which had come to loathe and distrust him. After months of mass demonstrations against his effort to curtail the power of the judiciary, he urgently needed support for the coming war. Before the Hamas attack, many reservists, including pilots in Air Force units, had threatened to refuse service in protest of the danger they believed Netanyahu posed to Israeli democratic institutions.

四天后,随着对加沙的地面入侵迫在眉睫,且对黎巴嫩真主党(Hezbollah)的攻击也在考虑之中,内塔尼亚胡邀请艾森科特加入一个小型战时内阁。艾森科特曾在2015年2月至2019年1月期间在内塔尼亚胡手下担任总参谋长,但现在是一名政治对手。内塔尼亚胡希望向严重分裂的公众展示一个团结阵线,其中大部分人已经厌恶和不信任他。在针对他削弱司法机构权力的企图进行了数月的大规模示威之后,他迫切需要为即将到来的战争争取支持。在哈马斯袭击之前,许多预备役人员,包括空军部队的飞行员,曾威胁要拒绝服役,以抗议他们认为内塔尼亚胡对以色列民主体制构成的危险。

“I joined the war cabinet, even though I never in my life thought I would be at the same table with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich,” Eisenkot told me. “The first meeting”—on October 11th—“was very dramatic. Bibi called me to sit at a meeting at five in the evening. When I walked into the room, I didn’t know what it would be about. This was the first time Bibi realized what it is to lose your balance. It was very strange. At first, I didn’t know what we were doing. Then I realized that they had called me in to talk about a targeted killing of Hassan Nasrallah,” the leader of Hezbollah. “I didn’t know that Netanyahu had just gotten off a call with Biden, and Biden had told him, ‘Do not.’ There was a presentation, and it was said that the attack would be at 7 P.M. After the chief of the general staff stopped speaking, Netanyahu turned to the war cabinet and said, ‘What are your thoughts?’ ”

“我加入了战时内阁,尽管我这辈子从未想过我会和本-格维尔、斯莫特里赫坐在同一张桌子旁,”艾森科特告诉我。“第一次会议”——在10月11日——“非常戏剧化。比比(Bibi,内塔尼亚胡的昵称)叫我下午五点去开会。当我走进房间时,我不知道会议是关于什么的。那是比比第一次意识到失去平衡是什么感觉。这非常奇怪。起初,我不知道我们在做什么。然后我意识到他们叫我来是讨论定点清除哈桑·纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah),”真主党的领导人。“我不知道内塔尼亚胡刚和拜登(Biden)通完电话,拜登告诉他,‘不要这样做。’有一个演示,说攻击将在晚上7点进行。总参谋长停止发言后,内塔尼亚胡转向战时内阁说,‘你们有什么想法?’”

Israeli intelligence later obtained documents indicating that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, and other Hamas leaders had discussed for several years with Nasrallah and the Iranian regime a multifront “plan of annihilation” against Israel. Sinwar launched the assault without advance warning to his allies, then sent messages to Beirut and Tehran apologizing for taking them by surprise and imploring them to join the fight immediately. Hezbollah’s élite Radwan force and its immense arsenal of rockets were positioned in southern Lebanon, near the border, but Nasrallah declined to rush into a war of such consequence. He sanctioned only a limited, symbolic attack in support of Hamas.

以色列情报部门后来获得的文件表明,加沙哈马斯领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔(Yahya Sinwar)和其他哈马斯领导人,曾与纳斯鲁拉及伊朗政权就针对以色列的多线“歼灭计划”讨论了数年。辛瓦尔在没有提前警告其盟友的情况下发动了袭击,然后向贝鲁特和德黑兰发送信息,为让他们措手不及而道歉,并恳求他们立即加入战斗。真主党的精锐拉德万(Radwan)部队及其庞大的火箭弹库部署在黎巴嫩南部靠近边境的地方,但纳斯鲁拉拒绝仓促卷入一场如此重大的战争。他只批准了一次有限的、象征性的攻击来支持哈马斯。

In the war cabinet, Eisenkot argued against opening a second front. “I said we had to be focussed on the south,” he recalled. “We needed to have stability there. And only after we deal with Hamas in the south should we turn northward.” He continued, “The meeting finished at six, and we went to an underground bunker. When I arrived, someone told me that only a brigadier general”—Amit Saar, the head of the Military Intelligence Research Department—“really had his head on straight. Everyone else had lost their minds. The chief of the general staff said, ‘We have to finish up this conversation, because I have only twenty minutes before I send the planes into the air.’ So I asked that this brigadier general get up and present to the room. Saar said he thought it would be a big mistake. After his presentation, three other people in the cabinet agreed with him.” In the end, Eisenkot’s argument won out. With the planes in the air, Netanyahu called off the strike.

在战时内阁中,艾森科特反对开辟第二战线。“我说我们必须专注于南方,”他回忆道。“我们需要那里的稳定。只有在我们处理完南方的哈马斯之后,我们才应该转向北方。”他继续说,“会议在六点结束,我们去了一个地下掩体。当我到达时,有人告诉我,只有一位准将”——军事情报研究部的负责人阿米特·萨尔(Amit Saar)——“头脑是清醒的。其他人都失去了理智。总参谋长说,‘我们必须结束这个讨论,因为我只有二十分钟就要派飞机升空了。’所以我请这位准将站起来向会议室做陈述。萨尔说他觉得这会是一个巨大的错误。在他陈述之后,内阁中的另外三个人同意了他的看法。”最终,艾森科特的论点占了上风。飞机已在空中,内塔尼亚胡取消了这次打击。

“We prevented a very wrong decision, because, according to the Washington Post, if we were to attack in Lebanon then, we would have realized Sinwar’s strategic vision to bring about an immediate regional war,” Eisenkot said. “Hamas, which caused us the greatest damage in our history, would have become a secondary front.”

“我们阻止了一个非常错误的决定,因为,据《华盛顿邮报》报道,如果我们当时在黎巴嫩发动攻击,我们就会实现辛瓦尔引发一场即时地区战争的战略构想,”艾森科特说。“给我们历史上造成最大损害的哈马斯,反而会变成次要战线。”

The meeting ended around midnight. As Eisenkot left for home, he saw that he had several messages on his phone from Gal.

会议在午夜左右结束。当艾森科特离开回家时,他看到手机上有几条加尔发来的信息。

He called his son back. “Gal, what’s going on?” he asked.

他给儿子回了电话。“加尔,怎么了?”他问道。

Years earlier, when Eisenkot had polled his family about getting into politics, Gal had told him that four decades in the Army was enough service. He should enjoy his life. But now Gal said, “I understand why it’s important for you to be involved in politics.”

几年前,当艾森科特征求家人对他从政的意见时,加尔曾告诉他,在军队服役四十年已经足够了。他应该享受生活。但现在加尔说:“我明白为什么你参与政治很重要。”

“I was still exhausted from the meeting,” Eisenkot told me. “I said, ‘I think I just did something very important for the war, and I will tell you about it later.’ ”

“我当时开会开得筋疲力尽,”艾森科特告诉我。“我说,‘我想我刚为战争做了一件非常重要的事,我晚点再告诉你。’”

In the weeks that followed, Eisenkot participated in fierce debates over the conduct of the war. He pressed for rapid agreements to free as many hostages as possible. The hostages were scattered across Gaza, many of them deep in the network of tunnels beneath the Strip. Israeli intelligence didn’t see a prospect of rescuing them in large numbers. There would be no Entebbe-style miracle. Eisenkot argued that the only way to bring them home was to make their release the national priority and keep negotiating with Sinwar. Smotrich, Ben-Gvir, and senior military officials put the annihilation of Hamas first, no matter the cost to civilians. As casualties and destruction mounted, Netanyahu invoked an open-ended doctrine that he would soon call “total victory.” Intelligence reports indicated that the hostages were being abused, yet Netanyahu and his ministers showed little sympathy for their families, who were pleading for action to free them. Eisenkot, having lost the argument, eventually left the war cabinet. He could no longer act as a “fig leaf,” he says, for a Prime Minister whose main concern was to preserve his coalition with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, and his own political power.

在接下来的几周里,艾森科特参与了关于战争行为的激烈辩论。他敦促尽快达成协议,以解救尽可能多的人质。人质分散在加沙各处,许多人深藏在加沙地带地下的隧道网络中。以色列情报部门看不到大规模营救他们的前景。不会有恩德培(Entebbe)式的奇迹。艾森科特认为,将他们带回家的唯一方法是把释放他们作为国家优先事项,并继续与辛瓦尔谈判。斯莫特里赫、本-格维尔和高级军事官员则将消灭哈马斯放在首位,不惜平民付出任何代价。随着伤亡和破坏的增加,内塔尼亚胡援引了一项他很快称之为“全面胜利”的开放式原则。情报报告显示人质正遭受虐待,但内塔尼亚胡及其部长们对人质家属几乎没有表现出同情,这些家属恳求采取行动解救他们。艾森科特在这场争论中失败后,最终离开了战时内阁。他说,他不能再充当一个总理的“遮羞布”,这位总理的主要关切是维持他与本-格维尔和斯莫特里赫的联盟,以及他自己的政治权力。
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On a Thursday in late November, Gal came home for a break from reserve duty. For nearly a week, a hostage deal had paused the fighting and brought the release of dozens of captives. The pause ended the next morning. That evening, Gal had Shabbat dinner with his parents. Early on Saturday, Eisenkot drove him to Tel Aviv, where he could catch a bus to his assembly point. They rode mostly in silence. Gal had been up until 4:30 A.M. with his friends. When he and his father finally got to Tel Aviv, they hugged and said their see-you-soons.

11月下旬的一个星期四,加尔从预备役休假回家。近一周来,一项人质协议暂停了战斗,并促成了数十名人质的释放。停火在第二天早上结束。那天晚上,加尔与父母共进了安息日(Shabbat)晚餐。周六一早,艾森科特开车送他到特拉维夫,他可以从那里乘公共汽车去集合点。他们一路大多沉默不语。加尔和朋友们熬夜到凌晨四点半。当他和他父亲最终到达特拉维夫时,他们拥抱了一下,说了声“很快再见”。

One morning in the first week of December, Eisenkot visited a base on the Gaza border for a briefing on explosives confiscated in the Strip. At division headquarters, a general abruptly pulled him from the room and said that Gal had been “very badly wounded.” Eisenkot should return home immediately. Eisenkot had delivered such messages many times before. “Give me credit,” he told the general. He understood that his son was dead.

12月第一周的一个早晨,艾森科特视察了加沙边境的一个基地,听取关于在加沙地带缴获的爆炸物的简报。在师部,一位将军突然把他从房间里拉出来,说加尔受了“非常严重的伤”。艾森科特应立即回家。艾森科特以前曾多次传达过这样的消息。“相信我,”他对将军说。他明白他的儿子已经死了。

“At that moment,” he recalled, “I switched to autopilot.” In a kind of trance, he got in his car and headed north toward Herzliya. As he drove, he called his eldest son, Guy, and said, “Gal has been killed. Go home and make sure no one enters the house until I get there.”

“在那一刻,”他回忆道,“我切换到了自动驾驶模式。”他恍惚地上了车,向北开往赫兹利亚。开车时,他打电话给他的长子盖伊(Guy),说:“加尔被杀了。回家去,确保在我到家之前没有人进屋。”

Sometime after three, Eisenkot arrived home. His wife, Hanna, was putting their granddaughter down for a nap. His three daughters were there as well. He told them what he’d learned about what happened. Intelligence officers had discovered that the remains of two fallen Israelis—a soldier named Ziv Dado and a young woman named Eden Zakaria, who had been at the Nova music festival—were being held by Hamas on the outskirts of Jabalia, in the northern Gaza Strip. Gal and another soldier, Eyal Berkowitz, had joined an effort to find and extract the two bodies. During the operation, Gal and “Berko” were killed by an I.E.D. The extraction was successful, but was it worth it? “My wife asked me a lot of difficult questions about the mission,” Eisenkot told me. “Was it right to endanger soldiers to retrieve dead hostages? She’s asked me that many times.”

三点过后的某个时候,艾森科特到家了。他的妻子汉娜(Hanna)正在哄他们的孙女午睡。他的三个女儿也都在那里。他把他了解到的情况告诉了她们。情报官员发现,两名阵亡以色列人的遗体——一名叫齐夫·达多(Ziv Dado)的士兵和一名叫伊登·扎卡里亚(Eden Zakaria)的年轻女子,她当时在诺瓦(Nova)音乐节上——被哈马斯扣押在加沙地带北部贾巴利亚(Jabalia)郊区。加尔和另一名士兵埃亚尔·伯科维茨(Eyal Berkowitz)加入了一项寻找并取回这两具遗体的行动。行动中,加尔和“贝尔科”(Berko)被简易爆炸装置(I.E.D.)炸死。遗体取回成功了,但这值得吗?“我妻子问了我很多关于这次任务的难题,”艾森科特告诉我。“让士兵冒着生命危险去取回死去人质的遗体,这样做对吗?她问过我很多次。”

Thousands of people crowded into the military cemetery in Herzliya for Gal’s funeral. Netanyahu and much of Israel’s political and security establishment were there. Eisenkot told me that he had not cried in fifty years, but, as he stood before his son’s flag-draped coffin and spoke to the assembled, he was at times unable to continue.

成千上万的人挤满了赫兹利亚的军人公墓,参加加尔的葬礼。内塔尼亚胡以及以色列政界和安全机构的大部分人都出席了。艾森科特告诉我,他已经五十年没哭过了,但当他站在儿子覆盖着国旗的棺材前,向聚集的人群讲话时,他几度哽咽,无法继续。

“Galush, our beloved,” he said, “I promise you that we will continue to be a united and happy family, so that your sacrifice and that of the other fallen will not be in vain and that we will be worthy of it. I salute you, beloved son.” Then Eisenkot, wearing dark glasses, his voice cracking, addressed the mourners: “The pain is great. It is huge. But we are a happy, strong family, and, if Gal could tell me one more thing, he would say, ‘Choose life—keep being happy.’ He lives with us in our hearts. He was like that in life. And he will remain that way for us forever.”

“加卢什(Galush),我们亲爱的孩子,”他说,“我向你保证,我们将继续做一个团结幸福的家庭,这样你和其阵亡者的牺牲才不会白费,我们才配得上这份牺牲。我向你致敬,亲爱的儿子。”然后,戴着墨镜、声音哽咽的艾森科特对哀悼者说:“痛苦是巨大的。它是巨大的。但我们是一个幸福、坚强的家庭,如果加尔还能再对我说一件事,他会说,‘选择生命——继续快乐下去。’他活在我们心中。他生前就是这样。他将永远这样活在我们心中。”

Not long afterward, the television journalist Ilana Dayan interviewed Eisenkot on Channel 12 and asked him how he and the family were enduring their loss.

不久之后,电视记者伊拉娜·达扬(Ilana Dayan)在第12频道采访了艾森科特,问他和他家人如何承受丧亲之痛。

“The mornings and nights became harder,” he said, “but as far as I am concerned, at least, there is no alternative, because I know the alternative is bad for me personally and bad for the family. Before bed, and when I get up, it is with me. But I truly hope that I’ll learn to live with it. I must. The alternative is an abyss.”

“早晨和夜晚变得更难熬了,”他说,“但就我而言,至少,别无选择,因为我知道另一种选择对我个人和家庭都不好。睡前和起床时,它都伴随着我。但我真心希望我能学会与它共存。我必须这样。另一种选择是深渊。”

Loss followed loss: two of Eisenkot’s nephews were also killed in battle, one in Khan Younis, the other in Beit Lahia. For a long time, Eisenkot was in mourning, drained, deferring all political decisions. Then he left the National Unity party in July, 2025, founded Yashar two months later, and, on June 30, 2026, formally declared his intention of succeeding Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

失去接踵而至:艾森科特的两个侄子也在战斗中阵亡,一个在汗尤尼斯(Khan Younis),另一个在拜特拉希亚(Beit Lahia)。很长一段时间,艾森科特沉浸在哀悼中,心力交瘁,推迟了所有政治决定。然后,他于2025年7月退出了国家团结党(National Unity party),两个月后创立了亚沙尔党,并于2026年6月30日正式宣布他打算接替内塔尼亚胡出任总理。

In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack on October 7th, two propositions were treated as nearly axiomatic in Israeli public discourse.

在2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击事件发生后不久,有两个主张在以色列公共话语中几乎被视为公理。

The first was that Netanyahu could not possibly survive as Prime Minister. He had, after all, presided over the worst breakdown of national security in the country’s history. Netanyahu, who had fashioned himself as an Israeli Churchill, had concentrated on Iran while waging a distinctly Trumpian culture war against enemies real and imagined: the media, cultural élites, and supposed deep-state antagonists in the courts and the military. He considered Hamas—especially compared with Hezbollah, in Lebanon, or the regime in Tehran—to be a ragtag force, gangsters and fanatics with AK-47s who could be contained through infusions of Qatari cash, sophisticated electronic surveillance, and periodic rounds of limited warfare, a strategy known as “mowing the grass.” Within a week of the massacre, polls indicated that Netanyahu, who had offered no gesture of contrition, was almost certain to lose power. His likely successor was Benny Gantz, a former general and leader of the I.D.F. who was so tall, so silver-haired and taciturn, that Donald Trump would surely have regarded him as “straight out of central casting.”

第一个是内塔尼亚胡不可能继续担任总理。毕竟,他主持了该国历史上最严重的国家安全崩溃。将自己塑造成以色列丘吉尔(Churchill)的内塔尼亚胡,一直专注于伊朗,同时发动了一场极具特朗普(Trumpian)风格的文化战争,对抗真实和想象中的敌人:媒体、文化精英,以及法院和军队中所谓的深层国家(deep-state)对手。他认为哈马斯——尤其是与黎巴嫩的真主党或德黑兰政权相比——不过是一群乌合之众,是拿着AK-47的匪徒和狂热分子,可以通过注入卡塔尔现金、先进的电子监控和周期性的有限战争(一种被称为“修剪草坪”的战略)来遏制。大屠杀发生后一周内,民调显示,未做出任何悔过姿态的内塔尼亚胡几乎肯定会失去权力。他可能的继任者是本尼·甘茨(Benny Gantz),一位前将军和以色列国防军领导人,他身材高大,银发,沉默寡言,以至于唐纳德·特朗普肯定会认为他“简直是量身定做的角色”。

Netanyahu faced fury in the streets and within the government. Yair Lapid, who heads Yesh Atid, a center-left opposition party, and who for six months served as Prime Minister, in 2022, recalled for me a speech that he delivered in Netanyahu’s presence in the Knesset after the attack. “Mr. Prime Minister, the amazing thing is that you still don’t understand,” Lapid said, his voice full of contempt. “Nothing will be left of you. There will be no museum in your name, no square. There will not even be a Benjamin Netanyahu Fountain. There will be only one thing: October 7th. . . . Your time is up. Your extremist and reckless government is collapsing. Under your feet, the ground is burning.”

内塔尼亚胡面临街头和政府内部的愤怒。亚伊尔·拉皮德(Yair Lapid)领导着中左翼反对党“拥有未来党”(Yesh Atid),并曾在2022年担任了六个月的总理。他向我回忆起袭击发生后,他在内塔尼亚胡在场的议会发表的一次演讲。“总理先生,令人惊讶的是你仍然不明白,”拉皮德说,声音里充满了蔑视。“你什么都不会留下。不会有以你命名的博物馆,不会有广场。甚至不会有一个本雅明·内塔尼亚胡喷泉。只会有一件事:10月7日……你的时间到了。你极端而鲁莽的政府正在崩溃。你脚下的土地正在燃烧。”

Yet Netanyahu continued to prosecute the war, while refusing to acknowledge his role in its origins. Support for Gantz, who lacked both a message and a vivid public presence, ebbed. And so the Prime Minister, despite his diminished standing and Eisenkot’s ascendance of late, could well be reëlected this fall. His methods will be familiar to Americans. He survives by sheer demagoguery and by catering to an implacable, MAGA-like base, indulging extremist ministers in their pursuit of annexation and ethnic cleansing, and acceding to ultra-Orthodox demands for exemption from military service and ongoing access to enormous state subsidies.

然而,内塔尼亚胡继续推进战争,同时拒绝承认自己在战争起因中的作用。对甘茨的支持减弱了,因为他既缺乏明确的信息,也缺乏鲜明的公众形象。因此,尽管总理地位下降,且艾森科特近期声势上升,他仍有可能在今年秋天再次当选。他的手段对美国人来说会很熟悉。他依靠纯粹的煽动、迎合一个顽固的、类似MAGA的票仓、纵容极端主义部长追求吞并和种族清洗,并默许极端正统派免服兵役和持续获得巨额国家补贴的要求来生存。

Netanyahu’s opponents believe that this survival strategy has finally become untenable. “Bibi thinks he can keep riding the tiger,” Lapid told me. “He thinks he can ride the tiger of Jewish extremism—but it rides him. He thinks he can ride the tiger of religious power—but religious power rides him.”

内塔尼亚胡的反对者认为,这种生存策略终于变得难以为继。“比比认为他可以继续骑虎难下,”拉皮德告诉我。“他认为他可以驾驭犹太极端主义这只老虎——但实际上是老虎在驾驭他。他认为他可以驾驭宗教权力这只老虎——但实际上是宗教权力在驾驭他。”

Even so, anxiety runs through the opposition. Ehud Olmert, who served as Prime Minister from 2006 to 2009, told me that many of Netanyahu’s opponents fear he might take a page from Trump’s book and attempt to discredit the election results. “The police here are not governed normally,” Olmert said. Ben-Gvir, as minister of national security, oversees the police. “How will they enforce the elections if Bibi loses?” Olmert went on. “He might try not to recognize the ballot, like his friend Trump did on the sixth of January.”

即便如此,焦虑情绪仍在反对派中蔓延。曾在2006年至2009年担任总理的埃胡德·奥尔默特(Ehud Olmert)告诉我,内塔尼亚胡的许多反对者担心他可能会效仿特朗普的做法,试图抹黑选举结果。“这里的警察不受正常管理,”奥尔默特说。本-格维尔作为国家安全部长,负责监管警察。“如果比比输了,他们将如何执行选举?”奥尔默特接着说。“他可能会试图不承认投票结果,就像他的朋友特朗普在1月6日所做的那样。”

Should Netanyahu prevail, Eisenkot, Olmert, Lapid, and many others I spoke with expect that Israel’s isolation will deepen, and that many of its most talented and productive citizens, especially those with second passports, will consider their options. “If Bibi wins the elections, I presume that a hundred thousand people, from twenty-five to forty—high-tech people, academics with kids—will leave the country rapidly,” Olmert said.

如果内塔尼亚胡获胜,艾森科特、奥尔默特、拉皮德以及我交谈过的许多其他人都预计,以色列的孤立将会加深,许多最有才华和最具生产力的公民,尤其是那些拥有第二本护照的人,将会考虑他们的选择。“如果比比赢得选举,我估计会有十万人,年龄在二十五到四十岁之间——高科技人才、有孩子的学者——会迅速离开这个国家,”奥尔默特说。

“I think Israel has lost its mind, like the U.S. after 9/11,” Assaf Sharon, a professor of philosophy at Tel Aviv University and a pro-democracy activist, told me. “For the first time in my life, I am no longer confident that the country will survive. I always hated this alarmism. But Israel has cornered itself into a position in which there is a tangible threat to the survival of the state.”

“我认为以色列已经失去了理智,就像9/11之后的美国一样,”特拉维夫大学哲学教授、民主活动家阿萨夫·沙龙(Assaf Sharon)告诉我。“这是我生平第一次,我不再确信这个国家能够生存下去。我一直讨厌这种危言耸听。但以色列已经把自己逼到了一个国家生存面临切实威胁的境地。”
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That fear was recently voiced by a veteran of America’s Democratic Party establishment. In early July, Rahm Emanuel, a former top adviser to both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, came to Tel Aviv University to denounce Netanyahu for leading his country into a disastrous cul-de-sac of “occupation and isolation.” He warned that Israel wasn’t just losing the Democratic Party; it was in danger of losing the United States. “The pursuit of a so-called Greater Israel is as self-destructive and fanatical as the chant ‘from the river to the sea,’ ” Emanuel said. “Your government has been complicit in the horrors now being inflicted on innocent families in the West Bank. That undermines your international legitimacy as a small nation, at a time when you can least afford it.” The medicine was particularly harsh because it came from someone who could hardly be dismissed as a radical or an antisemite. Emanuel’s father served in the 1948 War of Independence. His middle name is Israel.

这种恐惧最近被一位美国民主党资深人士表达了出来。7月初,曾担任比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)和巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)高级顾问的拉姆·伊曼纽尔(Rahm Emanuel)来到特拉维夫大学,谴责内塔尼亚胡将他的国家带入了一条“占领与孤立”的灾难性死胡同。他警告说,以色列不仅正在失去民主党,还面临着失去美国的危险。“追求所谓的‘大以色列’(Greater Israel)和‘从河到海’的口号一样,都是自我毁灭和狂热的,”伊曼纽尔说。“你们的政府是现在约旦河西岸无辜家庭遭受恐怖的共谋。这损害了你们作为一个小国的国际合法性,尤其是在你们最承受不起这种损害的时候。”这剂药之所以特别苦,是因为它来自一个很难被斥为激进分子或反犹主义者的人。伊曼纽尔的父亲曾参加1948年的独立战争。他的中间名就是以色列(Israel)。

The second premise of those early post-October 7th days was that Netanyahu would be compelled, by conscience and tradition, to establish an official commission of inquiry into the origins of the catastrophic security failure. It would be modelled on the commission chaired by Shimon Agranat, the chief justice of the Israeli Supreme Court, after the surprise invasion by Egypt and Syria on Yom Kippur, in October, 1973. The Agranat Commission identified the missed clues and the ignored warnings, thereby exposing the carelessness of the security establishment. The country had looked into the void. Had Israeli tank forces not rallied after days of terrible losses in the Sinai and the Golan Heights, the Egyptian and Syrian Armies might well have overrun central Israel. The report prompted the resignations of numerous senior security and intelligence officials and helped end Golda Meir’s political career.

10月7日后初期的第二个前提是,内塔尼亚胡将迫于良知和传统,成立一个官方调查委员会,调查这场灾难性安全失败的根源。该委员会将效仿1973年10月赎罪日战争(Yom Kippur War)中埃及和叙利亚发动突然入侵后,由以色列最高法院首席大法官西蒙·阿格拉纳特(Shimon Agranat)主持的委员会。阿格拉纳特委员会查明了被遗漏的线索和被忽视的警告,从而暴露了安全机构的疏忽大意。这个国家曾凝视过深渊。如果不是以色列坦克部队在西奈半岛和戈兰高地经历数日惨重损失后重新集结,埃及和叙利亚军队很可能已经占领了以色列中部。该报告促使众多高级安全和情报官员辞职,并帮助结束了果尔达·梅厄(Golda Meir)的政治生涯。

Netanyahu, however, will never accept responsibility in this way. A succession of senior military and intelligence officials have resigned, issuing statements of profound regret for their failures before and on October 7th. Netanyahu, the head of the government they served, has refused to do the same. He airily observes that Franklin Roosevelt did not resign after Pearl Harbor, and that George W. Bush did not step down after 9/11. They focussed on the wars before them. Netanyahu’s non-apologies are exercises in deflection.

然而,内塔尼亚胡永远不会以这种方式承担责任。一连串高级军事和情报官员已经辞职,并发表声明,对他们在10月7日之前和当天的失败深表遗憾。而他们所服务的政府首脑内塔尼亚胡,却拒绝这样做。他轻描淡写地指出,富兰克林·罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)在珍珠港事件后没有辞职,乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)在9/11事件后也没有下台。他们都专注于眼前的战争。内塔尼亚胡的不道歉,不过是推卸责任的把戏。

Netanyahu has publicly distanced himself from rampant talk of “traitors from within,” but he has done little to curb its spread in his political camp and beyond. This cluster of conspiracy theories holds that senior military and intelligence officers deliberately failed to wake him in time to prevent the Hamas invasion. According to a survey conducted by Reichman University, as many as half of those who voted for Netanyahu’s coalition in 2022 have come to believe in such deep-state theories. The purveyors of these theories include commentators on the Netanyahu-friendly Channel 14 and Netanyahu’s son Yair, a podcaster and social-media bomb-thrower who combines the blood loyalty of Donald Trump, Jr., with the shitposting energy of Laura Loomer. Tally Gotliv, a Likud member of the Knesset, has claimed, falsely, that American intelligence intercepted a telephone call between the partner of Shikma Bressler, a left-leaning protest leader, and Sinwar, the Hamas leader who planned the attack.

内塔尼亚胡公开与甚嚣尘上的“内部叛徒”论调保持距离,但他几乎没有采取任何措施来遏制这种论调在其政治阵营内外的传播。这套阴谋论认为,高级军事和情报官员故意不及时叫醒他,以阻止哈马斯的入侵。根据赖希曼大学(Reichman University)进行的一项调查,在2022年投票支持内塔尼亚胡联盟的选民中,多达一半的人已经开始相信这类深层国家理论。这些理论的传播者包括亲内塔尼亚胡的第14频道的评论员,以及内塔尼亚胡的儿子亚伊尔(Yair),他是一名播客和社交媒体上的炸弹投掷者,集小唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump, Jr.)的血腥忠诚与劳拉·卢默(Laura Loomer)的喷子能量于一身。利库德集团议员塔利·戈特利夫(Tally Gotliv)曾错误地声称,美国情报部门截获了左倾抗议领袖希克玛·布雷斯勒(Shikma Bressler)的伴侣与策划袭击的哈马斯领导人辛瓦尔之间的电话。

“It’s much more pervasive than 9/11 conspiracy theories in the U.S., and it’s not hard to figure out why,” the journalist Amos Harel told me. “It’s hard to explain to yourself what happened if you believe that Bibi is God. How did it all collapse so completely? Someone needs to be blamed.”

“这比美国的9/11阴谋论要普遍得多,原因不难理解,”记者阿莫斯·哈雷尔(Amos Harel)告诉我。“如果你相信比比是神,你很难向自己解释发生了什么。这一切怎么会如此彻底地崩溃?总得有人被责怪。”

Although Netanyahu has given lip service to the idea that the security failures should be investigated, few Israelis expect him to establish an independent state commission of inquiry. In the absence of one, Harel, a longtime defense analyst for Haaretz, has done much of the preliminary work himself. His recent best-seller, “06:29: Anatomy of a Failure,” is a four-hundred-page indictment of arrogance, neglect, and institutional complacency. He lacks the subpoena power of an official commission, but his extensive sources in the national-security establishment enabled him to reconstruct how warnings were repeatedly ignored, and how a governing assumption, a conceptzia, had taken hold that utterly misread the situation in Gaza.

尽管内塔尼亚胡口头上表示应该调查安全失败,但很少有以色列人指望他会成立一个独立的国家调查委员会。在缺乏这样一个委员会的情况下,《国土报》的长期国防分析师哈雷尔自己做了大部分初步工作。他最近的畅销书《06:29:一场失败的解剖》(06:29: Anatomy of a Failure),是一份长达四百页的起诉书,控诉了傲慢、疏忽和体制性的自满。他没有官方委员会的传讯权,但他在国家安全机构的广泛人脉使他得以重现警告是如何被一再忽视的,以及一种主导性的假设,一种“概念”(conceptzia),是如何形成并完全误读了加沙局势的。
A person's silhouette.
Many fear that a Netanyahu victory could further heighten Israel’s isolation and provoke an exodus of the country’s most talented and productive citizens.
许多人担心,内塔尼亚胡的胜选可能会进一步加剧以色列的孤立,并引发该国最有才华、最具生产力的公民大批外流。
Photograph by Ilia Yefimovich / AFP / Getty

Harel describes how junior officers, including female ground observers stationed near Gaza, detected signs of a major attack well before the fence was breached, only to have their reports discounted by their superiors. Intelligence officers also noticed that Hamas had activated Israeli SIM cards in the hours before the invasion. But senior officers concluded that Hamas was conducting an exercise or, at most, preparing a limited attack.

哈雷尔描述了初级军官,包括驻扎在加沙附近的女地面观察员,如何在隔离墙被突破前很久就发现了大规模攻击的迹象,结果她们的报告却被上级打了折扣。情报官员也注意到哈马斯在入侵前几小时激活了以色列的SIM卡。但高级官员断定,哈马斯是在进行演习,或者至多是在准备一次有限的攻击。

Harel also reconstructs consultations among senior military and intelligence officials through the night of the sixth and the seventh, after signs of unusual activity appeared inside Gaza. Ronen Bar, the head of Shin Bet, the nation’s internal-security service, and Herzi Halevi, the chief of the general staff, both received late-night calls. The reports were alarming enough that Halevi wrote himself a note: “Let’s not convince ourselves that this is nothing.” At around 5:49 A.M., Israeli surveillance systems detected men on motorcycles and in jeeps near the security barrier. Still, no effective measures were taken.

哈雷尔还重现了在6日夜间至7日凌晨,加沙内部出现异常活动迹象后,高级军事和情报官员之间的磋商。以色列国内安全机构辛贝特(Shin Bet)的负责人罗南·巴尔(Ronen Bar)和总参谋长赫兹·哈莱维(Herzi Halevi)都在深夜接到了电话。报告令人震惊,以至于哈莱维给自己写了一张便条:“我们不要说服自己这没什么。”大约在凌晨5点49分,以色列监视系统探测到安全屏障附近有骑摩托车和乘坐吉普车的人。尽管如此,仍未采取任何有效措施。

“When I read transcripts of what happened before the attack, I feel like banging my head against the wall,” Harel told me.

“当我读到袭击发生前的谈话记录时,我感觉想把头往墙上撞,”哈雷尔告诉我。

Eisenkot and the other opposition leaders—including Lapid, the center-right former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, and Yair Golan, of the left-leaning Democrats—agree that one of the first acts of a new coalition government should be the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into October 7th. Netanyahu’s claim that his intelligence chiefs merely failed to wake him would be unlikely to carry much weight with its investigators.

艾森科特和其他反对派领导人——包括拉皮德、中右翼前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特(Naftali Bennett),以及左倾的民主党人亚伊尔·戈兰(Yair Golan)——都同意,新联合政府成立后的首要行动之一,应该是成立一个调查10月7日事件的国家委员会。内塔尼亚胡声称他的情报主管只是没能叫醒他,这种说法在调查人员面前不太可能站得住脚。

“In the chain of command, not knowing does not excuse responsibility. Quite the opposite, it adds to it,” Eisenkot said. “The Prime Minister is first in line, he gets his updates from military intelligence and the I.D.F., and he was involved. . . . Therefore, the responsibility was given to him when he took the oath of office on the Bible. He bears a sharp and clear responsibility. You don’t have to take responsibility. It’s there.”

“在指挥系统中,不知情并不能免除责任。恰恰相反,这会加重责任,”艾森科特说。“总理是第一责任人,他从军事情报部门和以色列国防军那里获得最新信息,而且他也参与其中……因此,当他手按圣经宣誓就职时,责任就赋予了他。他负有明确而尖锐的责任。你不需要去承担责任。它就在那里。”

Eisenkot’s insistence on command responsibility has a conspicuous limit. He remains reluctant to condemn Netanyahu in any detail for the extraordinary severity and duration of the war in Gaza. “When the war began, it caused Israelis for the first time to begin speaking in terms of the Shoah,” he said. “People started to say, ‘Hamas are Nazis.’ There was the conviction that there had been a massacre, rape, horrible things, and this was the knowledge that everyone went into war with. And therefore people like Gal were willing to pay with everything, including with their lives, so that there could continue to be a state. . . . But there is no denying it—after October 7th and the beginning of the war, the Israeli mind-set moved rightward. I stayed in the same place. But I understood that, if Israel didn’t strike with a heavy hand at first and show power, then we have no future here.”

艾森科特对指挥责任的坚持有一个明显的局限。他仍然不愿详细谴责内塔尼亚胡对加沙战争异常严酷的烈度和持续时间所负的责任。“战争开始时,它让以色列人第一次开始用‘大屠杀’(Shoah)的词汇来谈论,”他说。“人们开始说,‘哈马斯是纳粹。’人们确信发生了屠杀、强奸、可怕的事情,这是每个人投入战争时所知道的情况。因此,像加尔这样的人愿意付出一切,包括他们的生命,以便这个国家能够继续存在……但不可否认的是——在10月7日和战争开始之后,以色列人的心态向右转了。我留在了原地。但我明白,如果以色列一开始不予以重击并展示力量,那么我们在这里就没有未来。”

This was my fifth trip to Israel since October, 2023. When I had last visited, the previous June, Netanyahu and his supporters were arguing that Hamas was being soundly defeated and that Israel had used its military power to remake the region. Without irony, they spoke of a “new Middle East,” a phrase that Shimon Peres, a former Prime Minister, had once used to describe a peaceful future in which Israel would at last live in political and economic harmony with its neighbors, including a nascent Palestinian state.

这是我自2023年10月以来第五次来以色列。我上次来访是在之前的6月,当时内塔尼亚胡及其支持者辩称,哈马斯正被彻底击败,以色列已利用其军事力量重塑了该地区。他们毫不讽刺地谈论着一个“新中东”(new Middle East),这个短语曾是前总理西蒙·佩雷斯(Shimon Peres)用来描述一个和平未来的,在那个未来中,以色列最终将与其邻国,包括一个新兴的巴勒斯坦国,实现政治和经济上的和谐。

When the two men were political rivals, Netanyahu ridiculed Peres as hopelessly out of touch with the cruel realities of the region. Now, in the summer of 2025, Netanyahu and his camp envisioned a different sort of “new Middle East,” one in which Israel had rebounded from catastrophe, shattered Hezbollah, and, with American B-2 bombers dispatched by Trump, destroyed the Iranian nuclear project, which the President declared “obliterated.” They predicted a popular uprising in Iran and the imminent collapse of the Islamic theocracy. Stability would surely come to Lebanon and Syria, and the Abraham Accords would expand to include more Sunni nations, among them Saudi Arabia. Michael Oren, who had served as Netanyahu’s Ambassador to Washington, told me at the time, “There’s a very good chance that you won’t be able to understand the twenty-first century without understanding the Twelve-Day War.”

当两人还是政治对手时,内塔尼亚胡曾嘲笑佩雷斯与现实脱节,不了解该地区的残酷现实。如今,在2025年夏天,内塔尼亚胡及其阵营设想了一种不同的“新中东”,在这个新中东里,以色列已从灾难中反弹,粉碎了真主党,并借助特朗普派出的美国B-2轰炸机,摧毁了伊朗的核项目,总统宣布该项目已被“消灭”。他们预测伊朗将发生民众起义,伊斯兰神权政体即将崩溃。黎巴嫩和叙利亚必将迎来稳定,《亚伯拉罕协议》(Abraham Accords)将扩大到包括沙特阿拉伯在内的更多逊尼派国家。曾担任内塔尼亚胡驻华盛顿大使的迈克尔·奥伦(Michael Oren)当时告诉我:“很有可能,如果不理解‘十二日战争’(Twelve-Day War),你就无法理解21世纪。”

Entirely absent from this euphoric, triumphalist, end-of-history vision was any acknowledgment of the deaths of at least seventy thousand Palestinians, including more than twenty thousand children; the complete destruction of the vast majority of housing, schools, and hospitals throughout the Gaza Strip; and the many other acts committed there that constitute war crimes. Nor did it anticipate that Netanyahu and Trump would embark on a reckless new war. By the time I returned, months of Israeli bombardment had killed thousands of people in Lebanon and driven some 1.2 million people from their homes. A year after the Twelve-Day War, Oren allowed, “That was the glass-half-full version of things.”

在这种欣快、必胜、历史终结的愿景中,完全缺失的是对以下事实的承认:至少七万名巴勒斯坦人死亡,其中包括两万多名儿童;加沙地带绝大多数住房、学校和医院被完全摧毁;以及在那里犯下的许多其他构成战争罪的行为。它也没有预料到内塔尼亚胡和特朗普会发动一场鲁莽的新战争。到我再次返回时,以色列数月的轰炸已在黎巴嫩造成数千人死亡,并迫使约120万人逃离家园。“十二日战争”一年后,奥伦承认:“那是事情的乐观版本。”

Eisenkot, for his part, regards Netanyahu’s declaration of victory in Iran as ludicrous. After watching Netanyahu make the claim one night on Channel 14, he called one of his advisers and said, “Does Bibi really think everyone here is stupid?”

就艾森科特而言,他认为内塔尼亚胡宣布在伊朗取得胜利是荒谬的。一天晚上,在第14频道看到内塔尼亚胡做出这一宣称后,他打电话给他的一名顾问说:“比比真的以为这里的每个人都是傻瓜吗?”

Danny Citrinowicz, who spent twenty-five years in military command positions, including as head of the Iran branch of military intelligence, was sharper still. “Israel, in its wounded rage after October 7th, lost its strategic mind,” he told me. The joint Trump-Netanyahu military campaign ended in “an absolute disaster,” he said. The bombing on the first day killed the aging Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was succeeded by his even more hard-line son, Mojtaba, and left the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more radicalized and empowered than ever. The hope that bombing might inspire a rapid popular uprising was “preposterous from the start.”

丹尼·西特里诺维奇(Danny Citrinowicz)在军事指挥岗位服役了二十五年,包括担任军事情报部门伊朗分支的负责人,他的言辞更为尖锐。“以色列在10月7日之后的受伤愤怒中,失去了其战略理智,”他告诉我。特朗普与内塔尼亚胡的联合军事行动以“一场绝对的灾难”告终,他说。第一天的轰炸炸死了年迈的最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei),其子、更为强硬的穆杰塔巴(Mojtaba)继位,并使伊斯兰革命卫队(Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps)的领导层比以往任何时候都更加激进和强大。希望轰炸能迅速激发民众起义的想法“从一开始就是荒谬的”。
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“Is it the kind of whiskey that burns going down or the kind that first tastes smooth and then burns?”
“这是那种喝下去烧喉咙的威士忌,还是那种先入口顺滑、然后才烧起来的?”
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In the end, Citrinowicz told me, “we ended up giving even greater legitimacy to the Iranian regime and strengthening them.” The Gulf states, which had been drawing closer to Israel and the United States, would now seek an accommodation with Iran. Trump had imagined that he could replicate the ease of the American operation in Venezuela. Instead, he launched an air campaign against a country of more than ninety million people and found himself in a quagmire that was fracturing the MAGA coalition and threatening the global economy. Netanyahu, who had sold the plan to Trump after failing to do so with American Presidents going back to George W. Bush, now faced an Iranian leadership with a stronger motive to acquire a nuclear weapon. And U.S. support for Israel had cratered across the political spectrum, a development that most Israelis had yet to grasp fully.

最终,西特里诺维奇告诉我,“我们最终给了伊朗政权更大的合法性,并加强了他们。”一直在向以色列和美国靠拢的海湾国家,现在将寻求与伊朗达成和解。特朗普曾设想他可以复制美国在委内瑞拉行动的轻松。结果,他却对一个拥有九千多万人口的国家发动了一场空战,并发现自己陷入了一个正在分裂MAGA联盟并威胁全球经济的泥潭。内塔尼亚胡在未能说服从乔治·W·布什以来的历任美国总统后,将此计划推销给了特朗普,现在他面对的是一个更有动机获取核武器的伊朗领导层。而且,美国对以色列的支持在整个政治光谱中都大幅下降,这一事态发展是大多数以色列人尚未完全理解的。

“Most Israelis cannot bear to hear Israeli policy criticized abroad, and so many of them turn around and assume it is antisemitism,” Citrinowicz told me. “Antisemitism exists, but you can’t be so defensive to think that any and all criticism comes from that place.”

“大多数以色列人无法忍受以色列政策在国外受到批评,所以他们中的许多人转过身来就认为这是反犹主义,”西特里诺维奇告诉我。“反犹主义确实存在,但你不能如此防御性地认为任何和所有批评都来自那个地方。”

Yet most Israelis, despite their generally favorable view of Trump, believe that the American President ended the campaign too soon and failed them. “The bottom line was a lack of American will,” Oren insisted.

然而,尽管大多数以色列人普遍对特朗普持好感,但他们认为这位美国总统过早结束了战役,辜负了他们。“归根结底是美国缺乏意愿,”奥伦坚称。

Amit Segal, a conservative commentator for Channel 12 and Israel Hayom, told me that Netanyahu regards renewed conflict with Iran as politically advantageous. “For Trump, ending the war with Iran is a crucial condition for the midterms,” Segal told me. “For Netanyahu, ending the war is the obstacle to winning the 2026 election. From a political perspective, this is why there is a divide between them.”

第12频道和《今日以色列报》(Israel Hayom)的保守派评论员阿米特·西格尔(Amit Segal)告诉我,内塔尼亚胡认为与伊朗再次发生冲突在政治上是有利的。“对特朗普来说,结束与伊朗的战争是中期选举的关键条件,”西格尔告诉我。“对内塔尼亚胡来说,结束战争是赢得2026年大选的障碍。从政治角度来看,这就是他们之间存在分歧的原因。”

When it became clear that Eisenkot would be a leading candidate for Prime Minister, the producers of “Uvda,” Channel 12’s investigative-news program, made an hour-long documentary about the early stages of his campaign. It was a traditional fly-on-the-wall piece, though, in this case, the fly generally buzzed around Eisenkot’s car as he was ferried from one campaign stop to another. He sat in the front passenger seat, displaying a kind of wry detachment from the patter and questions directed at him. Eisenkot does not hesitate to describe himself as fat, and he cheerfully admitted to his fellow-passengers that he had recently lost a few kilos through a combination of diet, exercise, and “the shot.”

当艾森科特显然将成为总理的主要候选人时,第12频道调查性新闻节目“事实”(Uvda)的制作人制作了一部关于他竞选活动早期阶段的一小时纪录片。这是一部传统的“墙上的苍蝇”式作品,不过在这种情况下,这只苍蝇通常是在艾森科特的车里嗡嗡作响,当时他正从一个竞选站点被送往另一个。他坐在前排乘客座位上,对指向他的喋喋不休和问题表现出一种揶揄的超然。艾森科特毫不讳言地称自己胖,并愉快地向同车人承认,他最近通过节食、锻炼和“打针”的组合减掉了几公斤。

“All of his rivals may be slicker than him,” the narrator intoned early on, but Eisenkot “has a stronger story.” The story, of course, was that of the honest military man and the grieving father.

“他所有的对手可能都比他更圆滑,”旁白在开头低吟道,但艾森科特“有一个更强大的故事”。这个故事,当然是关于一个诚实的军人和一个悲伤的父亲的故事。

The question posed by the documentary, and daily in the Israeli press, is whether Eisenkot has what it takes to defeat Netanyahu. In a typical scene, Eisenkot visited the Tel Aviv apartment of Ronni and Shelly Zehavi, a prosperous couple who made their money in tech, and met with their equally prosperous friends. As he girded himself for a polite assault from these potential donors, the narrator said that the “elephant in the room” needed to be addressed. The country, Eisenkot allowed, had grown accustomed to a cunning politician “who knows how to deliver a message, talk, and connect.” If Netanyahu were to win, one guest warned, “half the kids of the people in this room won’t be here in twenty years.” They worried that Eisenkot, for all his years in the military, was “too polite.” (Israelis do not, in the main, value politesse.) One potential donor told him to “wake up” and “stop fumbling.”

这部纪录片以及以色列媒体每天都在提出的问题是,艾森科特是否有能力击败内塔尼亚胡。在一个典型场景中,艾森科特拜访了罗尼(Ronni)和雪莉·泽哈维(Shelly Zehavi)夫妇在特拉维夫的公寓,这对富裕夫妇靠科技赚钱,并会见了他们同样富裕的朋友。当他准备迎接这些潜在捐助者礼貌的盘问时,旁白说需要解决“房间里的大象”问题。艾森科特承认,这个国家已经习惯了一个“知道如何传递信息、说话和建立联系”的狡猾政客。一位客人警告说,如果内塔尼亚胡获胜,“这个房间里一半人的孩子二十年后都不会在这里了。”他们担心艾森科特,尽管在军队多年,但“太有礼貌了”。(以色列人总体上不看重礼貌。)一位潜在捐助者告诉他“醒醒”,“别再笨手笨脚了”。

At a humbler gathering of predominantly Moroccan Jews, the message was much the same. “The gloves have to come off,” one woman told him. “This is the moment.”

在一个以摩洛哥犹太人为主的较简朴的聚会上,传达的信息大致相同。“必须摘掉手套了,”一位女士告诉他。“就是现在。”

In another scene, filmed at campaign headquarters, Eisenkot and his advisers were being tutored by Steve Miller, a protégé of the late Arthur Finkelstein, an American political consultant who worked closely with Netanyahu. In the 1996 campaign, Finkelstein supplied Netanyahu with the hot-button slogans “Peres will divide Jerusalem” and “Bibi is good for the Jews.” They exemplified his method of turning political disagreement into a stark choice between security and betrayal. Miller lectured Eisenkot and his advisers on the art of political positioning. Using a left-to-right axis, he made clear that Eisenkot would be wise to edge rightward to win voters on the center-right.

在竞选总部拍摄的另一个场景中,艾森科特和他的顾问们正在接受史蒂夫·米勒(Steve Miller)的指导,米勒是已故的阿瑟·芬克尔斯坦(Arthur Finkelstein)的门生,芬克尔斯坦是一位与内塔尼亚胡密切合作的美国政治顾问。在1996年的竞选中,芬克尔斯坦为内塔尼亚胡提供了极具煽动性的口号“佩雷斯将分割耶路撒冷”和“比比有利于犹太人”。这些口号体现了他将政治分歧转化为安全与背叛之间赤裸选择的方法。米勒向艾森科特及其顾问讲授了政治定位的艺术。他用一条从左到右的轴线,清楚地表明艾森科特明智的做法是向右倾斜,以赢得中右翼选民。

“What defines right and left—the Palestinians?” Eisenkot asked. Such questions, though, were anathema in mainstream political conversations after October 7th. Even Yair Golan, who would occupy the left flank of any opposition coalition led by Eisenkot, told me that although he was prepared to speak of two states as an eventual goal, the other opposition leaders were far more circumspect. Ultimately, Golan said, the choice facing Israelis is “annexation or separation.” That is no secret to anyone.

“是什么定义了左右——巴勒斯坦人?”艾森科特问道。然而,在10月7日之后的主流政治对话中,这类问题是令人厌恶的。即使是将在艾森科特领导的任何反对派联盟中占据左翼阵地的亚伊尔·戈兰也告诉我,尽管他准备将两个国家作为一个最终目标来谈论,但其他反对派领导人要谨慎得多。戈兰说,最终,以色列人面临的选择是“吞并还是分离”。这对任何人来说都不是秘密。

Recent months had brought intense jockeying within the opposition. The former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, seeking to return to the office, had hoped to lead a broad alliance that included Golan, Lapid, Eisenkot, and Avigdor Lieberman, a hawk with strong support among immigrants from the former Soviet Union. Bennett had once led the Yesha Council, the settlers’ umbrella organization, and later served as Netanyahu’s minister of the economy. His party rose for a time in the polls, but Eisenkot was cool to the idea of accepting a subordinate role, and when Bennett and Lapid formed an alliance in April, under the name Beyachad, or Together, they gave him a last chance to join. He refused. His calculation was easy to discern: Why Bennett and not him?

最近几个月,反对派内部竞争激烈。前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特寻求重返总理府,曾希望领导一个包括戈兰、拉皮德、艾森科特和阿维格多·利伯曼(Avigdor Lieberman,一位在前苏联移民中拥有强大支持的鹰派人物)在内的广泛联盟。贝内特曾领导过定居者伞式组织“耶沙委员会”(Yesha Council),后来担任过内塔尼亚胡的经济部长。他的政党在民调中一度上升,但艾森科特对接受从属角色态度冷淡,当贝内特和拉皮德于4月以“Beyachad”(意为“在一起”)的名义结成联盟时,他们给了艾森科特最后一次加入的机会。他拒绝了。他的盘算很容易看出:为什么是贝内特而不是他?

The polls soon exposed Bennett’s vulnerability. His alliance with Lapid cost him support on the right, while his hold on centrist voters had never been secure. (It was through the vagaries of coalition politics that Bennett had managed to become Prime Minister, in 2021, despite the fact that his party commanded just seven of the Knesset’s hundred and twenty seats.)

民调很快暴露了贝内特的弱点。他与拉皮德的联盟使他失去了右翼的支持,而他对中间派选民的掌控也从未稳固。(正是通过联合政治的变幻莫测,贝内特才得以在2021年成为总理,尽管他的政党在议会120个席位中只控制了7席。)

People in Bennett’s campaign were eager to warn me that, with Eisenkot as the opposition’s leading figure, the election could become a “rerun” of previous challenges to Netanyahu led by center-left politicians: Gantz, Lapid, Tzipi Livni, and Isaac Herzog. “Gadi has a high sympathy rate, he lost his son, he’s a likable guy,” a campaign source said. “They think that will do the job.” Bennett himself emphasized his own right-wing credentials on security. “If we want to win, we have to unite,” he told me. “We have to learn from the mistakes of previous elections and get into a room and decide things until the smoke comes out. It’s still early.”

贝内特竞选团队的人急于警告我,如果艾森科特成为反对派的主要人物,这次选举可能会成为此前由中左翼政客甘茨、拉皮德、齐皮·利夫尼(Tzipi Livni)和艾萨克·赫尔佐格(Isaac Herzog)领导的挑战内塔尼亚胡行动的“重演”。“加迪同情分很高,他失去了儿子,他是个讨人喜欢的家伙,”一位竞选消息人士说。“他们认为这就够了。”贝内特本人则强调自己在安全问题上的右翼资历。“如果我们想赢,就必须团结起来,”他告诉我。“我们必须从以往选举的错误中吸取教训,进入一个房间,决定事情,直到有结果出来。现在还早。”

Eisenkot agreed about the need for unity, but he smiled and made clear that, in his mind, the leadership question had already been settled. He was even predicting what Netanyahu would do after losing. “I believe he’ll take his package, like Viktor Orbán did,” he told me. “I don’t think he will stay in the opposition. I think he will retire.”

艾森科特同意团结的必要性,但他微笑着明确表示,在他心目中,领导权问题已经解决。他甚至预测了内塔尼亚胡败选后会做什么。“我相信他会像维克托·欧尔班(Viktor Orbán)那样,带着他的包裹离开,”他告诉我。“我不认为他会留在反对派。我认为他会退休。”

Others were less certain. A source close to the Prime Minister described Israeli coalition politics to me as a “circus.” Eisenkot could emerge from the election as the opposition’s dominant figure and still fail to assemble a government. “And then, who knows?”

其他人则不那么确定。一位接近总理的消息人士向我形容以色列的联合政治是一场“马戏”。艾森科特可能在选举中脱颖而出,成为反对派的主导人物,但仍无法组建政府。“然后,谁知道呢?”

If Netanyahu did leave the scene, Eisenkot said, Israel would at least have a chance to ease its polarization and repair its standing abroad. This was the core of his immediate ambition. “We have an opportunity now to build a real Jewish state,” he said. “We’ll have the ability to correct the terrible division created during Netanyahu’s reign and bring Israel back to the values of David Ben-Gurion,” a founder of the nation and its first Prime Minister.

艾森科特说,如果内塔尼亚胡真的离开舞台,以色列至少有机会缓解其两极分化,修复其在国际上的地位。这是他近期抱负的核心。“我们现在有机会建立一个真正的犹太国家,”他说。“我们将有能力纠正内塔尼亚胡统治期间造成的可怕分裂,让以色列回归大卫·本-古里安(David Ben-Gurion)的价值观,”本-古里安是以色列的开国元勋和第一任总理。

Eisenkot’s campaign headquarters occupies the second floor of a high-rise in Ramat HaSharon, north of Tel Aviv. His campaign manager, Ronen Manelis, is an astute former military-intelligence officer of Russian descent who first served under him during the second intifada near Nablus and later at the Kirya, the military complex in Tel Aviv. A brigadier general, Manelis was also the spokesman for the I.D.F. from 2017 to 2019. He is unabashed about selling a visitor on his candidate.

艾森科特的竞选总部位于特拉维夫以北拉马特沙龙(Ramat HaSharon)一栋高层建筑的二楼。他的竞选经理罗南·马内利斯(Ronen Manelis)是一位精明的俄裔前军事情报官员,在第二次巴勒斯坦大起义期间,他首次在纳布卢斯(Nablus)附近,后来在特拉维夫的军事基地“基里亚”(Kirya)在艾森科特手下服役。作为一名准将,马内利斯还在2017年至2019年担任以色列国防军发言人。他毫不掩饰地向访客推销他的候选人。

“Gadi has the gravitas to do this step-by-step work,” Manelis told me on my first visit to Ramat HaSharon. “He is one of the cleverest people in Israel. He is shrewd, more of a politician than people think. He is lovable. People come up and kiss him. A cabdriver tells me he is kadosh, holy, like a god. He is what the country needs. This is Biden against Trump in 2020, a fight for the soul of the nation. The only one who can do it is Gadi. If we lose it, I am not sure we will have another chance.”

“加迪有做这种循序渐进工作的庄重感,”我第一次访问拉马特沙龙时,马内利斯告诉我。“他是以色列最聪明的人之一。他很精明,比人们想象的更像一个政治家。他很可爱。人们走上前亲吻他。一个出租车司机告诉我他是‘kadosh’,神圣的,像神一样。他就是这个国家需要的人。这就像2020年拜登对特朗普,一场为国家灵魂而战的斗争。唯一能做到这一点的人就是加迪。如果我们输了,我不确定我们是否还有另一次机会。”

He barely paused for breath. “For a generation, we’ve really known only one Prime Minister. So people believe you need the fluent English. The makeup. The teleprompter. The standing ovations in Congress. But we need something else. We need the antithesis.”

他几乎没停下来喘口气。“一代人以来,我们实际上只认识一位总理。所以人们认为你需要流利的英语。化妆。提词器。在国会赢得起立鼓掌。但我们需要别的东西。我们需要对立面。”

And so on. Eventually, Manelis exhausted his urge to propagandize and began to show off his other role: the hard man prepared to fight Netanyahu with his own weapons. When I asked him about employing one of Arthur Finkelstein’s epigones, he smiled and noted that several members of the staff had worked in Netanyahu’s circle. He expressed admiration for Jonatan Urich, a Netanyahu media adviser who has been the subject of three criminal investigations.

如此等等。最终,马内利斯耗尽了宣传的冲动,开始展示他的另一个角色:准备用内塔尼亚胡自己的武器与之战斗的硬汉。当我问及他为何聘用阿瑟·芬克尔斯坦的一位追随者时,他笑了笑,并指出工作人员中有几位曾在内塔尼亚胡的圈子里工作过。他对约纳坦·乌里希(Jonatan Urich)表示钦佩,乌里希是内塔尼亚胡的媒体顾问,曾成为三项刑事调查的对象。

“Look, you can’t beat them if you don’t play their game,” Manelis said. “Unfortunately, Bibi succeeded with all this shit. If I want to win, I need people who know how to succeed.” He did not care if the left-leaning Haaretz criticized the campaign for adopting Finkelstein’s methods: “We’re not going to beat Netanyahu appealing only to Haaretz readers. We need to bring voters from between the blocs.”

“听着,如果你不按他们的游戏规则玩,你就无法打败他们,”马内利斯说。“不幸的是,比比靠所有这些狗屎成功了。如果我想赢,我需要知道如何成功的人。”他不在乎左倾的《国土报》是否会批评竞选活动采用芬克尔斯坦的方法:“我们不会只靠吸引《国土报》读者来打败内塔尼亚胡。我们需要从各阵营之间争取选民。”

By now, anyone in Israeli public life can anticipate Netanyahu’s ugliest lines of attack. Chief among them will be an attempt to brand Eisenkot as pro-Arab. In an earlier election, Netanyahu warned that Arab voters were “coming in droves” to vote for the opposition. The tactic combines racism with hypocrisy. Although Palestinian Arabs make up roughly a fifth of Israel’s population, forming a government dependent on Arab parties remains widely regarded as politically illegitimate. Still, Netanyahu himself explored the possibility of bringing into his coalition Mansour Abbas, the head of Ra’am, an Islamist Arab party in the Knesset, before Abbas instead joined the short-lived government led by Bennett and Lapid.

到现在,以色列公共生活中的任何人都能预料到内塔尼亚胡最丑陋的攻击路线。其中最主要的是试图将艾森科特打上亲阿拉伯的标签。在早些时候的一次选举中,内塔尼亚胡警告说,阿拉伯选民“成群结队地”出来投票给反对派。这种策略结合了种族主义和虚伪。尽管巴勒斯坦阿拉伯人约占以色列人口的五分之一,但组建一个依赖阿拉伯政党的政府仍被广泛视为政治上不合法。尽管如此,内塔尼亚胡本人也曾探讨过将议会中伊斯兰主义阿拉伯政党拉姆党(Ra'am)的领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯(Mansour Abbas)拉入其联盟的可能性,后来阿巴斯转而加入了由贝内特和拉皮德领导的短命政府。

None of this will prevent Netanyahu from using the same weapon again. The most effective instrument of his so-called “poison machine” is Channel 14, an outlet that makes Fox News look like “Democracy Now!” For a time, the channel seemed reluctant to attack the father of a fallen soldier. No longer. Recently, it assailed Eisenkot’s campaign for the sin of courting Arab voters.

这一切都不会阻止内塔尼亚胡再次使用同样的武器。他所谓的“毒药机器”最有效的工具是第14频道,这个媒体让福克斯新闻(Fox News)看起来像《民主现在!》(Democracy Now!)。有一段时间,该频道似乎不愿攻击一位阵亡士兵的父亲。现在不再是这样了。最近,它抨击艾森科特的竞选活动犯了争取阿拉伯选民的大罪。

Eisenkot’s military record offers no certain protection from right-wing condemnation. In addition to having been Netanyahu’s highest-ranking military commander, he served in Lebanon and the West Bank. He is closely associated with the Dahiya doctrine, which calls for the use of overwhelming and disproportionate force against areas from which hostile organizations operate, including extensive destruction of civilian infrastructure. (Dahiya refers to the predominantly Shiite southern suburbs of Beirut, where Hezbollah established one of its main strongholds.) But, in contemporary Israel, long service in the military or intelligence establishment can indicate a suspicious degree of moderation. Many former commanders, shaped by decades of fighting terrorism and watching negotiations fail, have concluded that two sovereign states or some form of separation from the Palestinians is essential, both as a moral principle and as a practical means of Israeli survival. Netanyahu will portray Eisenkot as belonging to that tribe. “In the past, a general always got his falafel for free,” Nadav Eyal, a columnist for Yedioth Ahronoth, a major Israeli daily, told me. “Not today. Today, he is considered a lefty.”

艾森科特的军事履历并不能为他提供免受右翼谴责的绝对保护。除了曾担任内塔尼亚胡最高级别的军事指挥官外,他还曾在黎巴嫩和约旦河西岸服役。他与“达希耶主义”(Dahiya doctrine)密切相关,该主义主张对敌对组织活动的区域使用压倒性和不成比例的武力,包括大规模摧毁民用基础设施。(达希耶指的是贝鲁特南部以什叶派为主的郊区,真主党在那里建立了其主要据点之一。)但是,在当代以色列,在军队或情报机构的长期服役可能意味着一种可疑的温和程度。许多前指挥官,在数十年的反恐斗争和目睹谈判失败的经历塑造下,得出结论认为,两个主权国家或某种形式的与巴勒斯坦人分离是至关重要的,这既是道德原则,也是以色列生存的实际手段。内塔尼亚胡会将艾森科特描绘成属于那个部落。“过去,一个将军总能免费得到他的法拉费(falafel),”以色列主要日报《新消息报》(Yedioth Ahronoth)的专栏作家纳达夫·埃亚尔(Nadav Eyal)告诉我。“今天不行了。今天,他被认为是左派。”
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The campaign expects Netanyahu to use Eisenkot’s long military career against him. One example is the so-called Azaria affair. In 2016, an Israeli soldier named Elor Azaria shot and killed a wounded Palestinian assailant who lay incapacitated on the ground. Eisenkot said that Azaria had violated the ethics of the Army, and backed his prosecution. Netanyahu, after seeing support for the soldier swell on social media, spoke with Azaria’s father and urged “balance” in the proceedings.

竞选团队预计内塔尼亚胡会利用艾森科特漫长的军事生涯来对付他。一个例子是所谓的“阿扎里亚事件”(Azaria affair)。2016年,一名名叫埃洛尔·阿扎里亚(Elor Azaria)的以色列士兵开枪打死了一名受伤倒地、丧失行动能力的巴勒斯坦袭击者。艾森科特表示阿扎里亚违反了军队的道德准则,并支持对他提起公诉。内塔尼亚胡在看到社交媒体上对这名士兵的支持激增后,与阿扎里亚的父亲通了话,并敦促诉讼程序要“平衡”。

Manelis does not hesitate to turn his candidate’s bereavement into a political credential. “The fact that his son died is insurance that he won’t do things that are dangerous for the nation,” he told me. Manelis regards it as his job to prevent Netanyahu from defining Eisenkot first. With an air of mischief and pride, he took out his phone and showed me a video on Instagram featuring a Likud jingle sung in Arabic and a reminder of Netanyahu’s courtship of Mansour Abbas. “I don’t think it’s racist,” Manelis said. “We are using his terms—and we need to win.”

马内利斯毫不犹豫地将其候选人的丧亲之痛转化为政治资本。“他儿子去世的事实,是他不会做对国家危险之事的保证,”他告诉我。马内利斯认为他的职责是阻止内塔尼亚胡先发制人地定义艾森科特。他带着一丝顽皮和自豪,拿出手机,给我看了一段Instagram上的视频,视频中有一首用阿拉伯语演唱的利库德集团顺口溜,并提醒人们内塔尼亚胡曾讨好曼苏尔·阿巴斯。“我不认为这是种族主义,”马内利斯说。“我们是在用他的方式——我们需要赢。”

He then showed me another campaign video. It reprises a Netanyahu ad from the 2015 campaign—“You will decide who will defend your children!”—while, thanks to A.I., Netanyahu wanders through the charred remains of kibbutzim torched by Hamas three years ago. “If you want to lose,” Manelis told me, “don’t use someone close to Arthur Finkelstein, don’t do a negative campaign, speak only about the Palestinian issue, and say you love Mansour Abbas. Then see what happens in the fall.”

然后他给我看了另一个竞选视频。它重现了内塔尼亚胡2015年竞选广告——“你将决定谁来保护你的孩子!”——同时,借助人工智能(A.I.),内塔尼亚胡漫步在三年前被哈马斯烧毁的基布兹的焦黑废墟中。“如果你想输,”马内利斯告诉我,“那就别用接近阿瑟·芬克尔斯坦的人,别搞负面竞选,只谈巴勒斯坦问题,并说你爱曼苏尔·阿巴斯。然后看看秋天会发生什么。”

As if to prove Manelis’s point about the inevitability of a brutal confrontation, the Netanyahu campaign put out an A.I.-generated video in mid-July that seemed to transgress every boundary of taste and decency. The clip, which Netanyahu himself posted, showed Eisenkot running through a meadow toward a young man wearing a T-shirt with the motto “Israeli Unity” emblazoned on it. But Eisenkot ignores the young man and instead runs past him to embrace Mansour Abbas. News accounts throughout Israel noted that the young man resembled Eisenkot’s late son, Gal. Einav Zangauker, the mother of a son who had been held hostage in Gaza and a former supporter of the Prime Minister, was among the many in Israel who considered the video both despicable and typical of Netanyahu’s campaign tactics. “When the video started playing and I saw Gadi running with open arms, the thought crossed my mind that, from the other side, we’d see his late son Gal running into his father’s arms,” she wrote on X. “A hug like that would have warmed the heart. But what was I thinking? This is Netanyahu.”

仿佛是为了证明马内利斯关于残酷对抗不可避免的观点,内塔尼亚胡的竞选团队在7月中旬发布了一段人工智能生成的视频,这段视频似乎越过了所有品味和体面的界限。这段由内塔尼亚胡本人发布的视频显示,艾森科特跑过一片草地,跑向一个穿着印有“以色列团结”口号T恤的年轻人。但艾森科特没有理会那个年轻人,而是从他身边跑过去拥抱曼苏尔·阿巴斯。以色列各地的新闻报道指出,那个年轻人长得像艾森科特已故的儿子加尔。埃纳夫·赞高克(Einav Zangauker)是一位儿子曾在加沙被扣为人质的母亲,也曾是总理的支持者,她和以色列许多人一样,认为这段视频既卑鄙又典型地反映了内塔尼亚胡的竞选策略。“当视频开始播放,我看到加迪张开双臂奔跑时,我脑中闪过一个念头,从另一边,我们会看到他已故的儿子加尔跑进父亲的怀抱,”她在X上写道。“那样的拥抱会温暖人心。但我在想什么呢?这是内塔尼亚胡。”

One uncertainty haunting the Eisenkot campaign is Donald Trump. Will the American President intervene at the last moment to help Netanyahu? Manelis wondered whether Trump might do for Netanyahu what J. D. Vance had tried to do for Viktor Orbán by campaigning for him in Budapest. Yet it was unclear how much warmth, if any, remained in the relationship. Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan’s recent book, “Regime Change,” recounts a chilling telephone call in which Trump turned against Netanyahu: “Everybody’s sick of you, Bibi. All the Jews are sick of you. Even the two Jews on this call are sick of you.” Manelis remains mindful of the President’s unpredictability; Trump may still prefer the devil he knows. “The game changer could be the Trump Administration,” he told me.

萦绕在艾森科特竞选活动中的一个不确定因素是唐纳德·特朗普。这位美国总统会在最后一刻介入帮助内塔尼亚胡吗?马内利斯想知道特朗普是否会像J.D.万斯(J. D. Vance)试图通过在布达佩斯为欧尔班助选那样,为内塔尼亚胡做些什么。然而,目前尚不清楚两人关系中还剩下多少热度(如果还有的话)。玛吉·哈伯曼(Maggie Haberman)和乔纳森·斯旺(Jonathan Swan)最近合著的书《政权更迭》(Regime Change)讲述了一通令人不寒而栗的电话,在电话中特朗普转而攻击内塔尼亚胡:“所有人都厌倦你了,比比。所有犹太人都厌倦你了。就连这通电话上的两个犹太人也厌倦你了。”马内利斯仍然对总统的不可预测性保持警惕;特朗普可能仍然更喜欢他熟悉的魔鬼。“改变游戏规则的可能是特朗普政府,”他告诉我。

Campaigns live from moment to moment, poll to poll. Eisenkot and the opposition as a whole were on the rise. One evening, Eisenkot’s chief of staff, Noam Bar-Lev, handed Manelis her phone. He glanced at the screen and smiled broadly.

竞选活动活在当下,从一个民调到另一个民调。艾森科特和整个反对派的支持率正在上升。一天晚上,艾森科特的幕僚长诺姆·巴尔-列夫(Noam Bar-Lev)把她的手机递给马内利斯。他瞥了一眼屏幕,咧嘴笑了。

“Amazing,” he said. “We had a good day on Polymarket!”

“太棒了,”他说。“我们在Polymarket上度过了美好的一天!”

It was a hot summer morning on the road to Hebron, the second-largest city in the West Bank, after East Jerusalem. I was riding along with Yehuda Shaul, who served in Hebron in the I.D.F. during the second intifada. Later, in his disillusionment, he helped organize Breaking the Silence, an activist organization of Army veterans who document instances of settler violence and evidence of Israel’s increasingly blatant attempt to absorb Palestinian land in the occupied territories without formally annexing it. The Tarqumiya checkpoint, which used to be crowded with Palestinians entering and leaving the West Bank in the south, was quiet. Since October 7th, Israeli security forces have cracked down on the movement of Palestinians throughout the West Bank. At the same time, there has been an alarming spike in settler violence across the region, from the villages near Jenin in the north to the Hebron Hills in the south. Young, armed settlers, many of them from small encampments and bent on intimidating Palestinian villagers, stage raids, slaughter farm animals, commit arson, and, all too often, inflict physical mayhem. Palestinians know that they can expect little help from Israeli forces, and still less from the police, which fall under Itamar Ben-Gvir’s ministry.

那是一个炎热的夏日早晨,在前往希伯伦(Hebron)的路上,希伯伦是约旦河西岸仅次于东耶路撒冷的第二大城市。我和耶胡达·绍尔(Yehuda Shaul)同车,他在第二次巴勒斯坦大起义期间曾在以色列国防军驻希伯伦服役。后来,在幻灭中,他帮助组织了“打破沉默”(Breaking the Silence),这是一个由退伍军人组成的活动组织,记录定居者暴力事件,以及以色列在未正式吞并的情况下,在占领区日益明目张胆地试图吞并巴勒斯坦土地的证据。塔尔库米亚(Tarqumiya)检查站过去挤满了进出西岸南部的巴勒斯坦人,现在却冷冷清清。自10月7日以来,以色列安全部队严厉打击了整个西岸巴勒斯坦人的行动。与此同时,从北部杰宁(Jenin)附近的村庄到南部的希伯伦山,整个地区的定居者暴力事件出现了惊人的激增。年轻的武装定居者,许多人来自小型前哨营地,一心想恐吓巴勒斯坦村民,他们发动袭击,屠杀农场动物,纵火,并且经常造成人身伤害。巴勒斯坦人知道他们从以色列军队那里几乎得不到帮助,从警察那里得到的帮助更少,因为警察隶属于伊塔马尔·本-格维尔的部门。

I’ve visited Hebron many times over the years, and it seems only more menacing now. Large sections of town are ghostly quiet. Army troops enforce strict, perversely precise rules about where Palestinians may, or may not, walk and drive. There is a bewildering maze of “sterile” streets. And the Arabs in town rarely test the litany of restrictions. “For now, they look at Gaza and they know that Israelis behaved this way—there was no check on Israeli cruelty,” Shaul said. “But there will come a moment when the young Palestinians say, ‘Why are we accepting this?’ This is a disaster waiting to happen, and I fear it will be like Rafah.”

多年来,我多次访问希伯伦,现在它似乎更加险恶了。城里大片区域死一般寂静。军队严格执行着严格而反常精确的规定,规定巴勒斯坦人可以在哪里行走和开车,不可以在哪里行走和开车。这里有一个令人困惑的“无菌”街道迷宫。城里的阿拉伯人很少挑战这一连串的限制。“目前,他们看着加沙,知道以色列人就是这样行事的——对以色列的残忍没有任何制约,”绍尔说。“但总有一天,年轻的巴勒斯坦人会问,‘我们为什么要接受这些?’这是一场等待发生的灾难,我担心它会像拉法(Rafah)一样。”

There are two hundred and thirty thousand Palestinians in Hebron; roughly eight hundred Jewish settlers are protected by an entire Army battalion. In Kiryat Arba, the major Jewish settlement in greater Hebron, there are around eight thousand souls, including Ben-Gvir himself. Shaul and I briefly stopped outside Ben-Gvir’s house, which is heavily guarded by armed security. He lives there with his wife, Ayala, and their children. It is said that on their first date they visited the nearby grave of Baruch Goldstein, an American-born physician and settler. On February 25, 1994, Goldstein opened fire with an assault rifle on a crowd of Palestinians at prayer, killing twenty-nine and wounding a hundred and twenty-five.

希伯伦有二十三万巴勒斯坦人;大约八百名犹太定居者受到整整一个营的军队保护。在大希伯伦地区的主要犹太定居点基尔亚特阿尔巴(Kiryat Arba),大约有八千居民,包括本-格维尔本人。绍尔和我短暂地在本-格维尔家门外停了一下,他的房子由武装保安严密守卫。他和妻子阿亚拉(Ayala)及孩子们住在那里。据说,他们第一次约会时,参观了附近的巴鲁克·戈德斯坦(Baruch Goldstein)的坟墓,戈德斯坦是一名美国出生的医生和定居者。1994年2月25日,戈德斯坦用突击步枪向一群正在祈祷的巴勒斯坦人开火,造成29人死亡,125人受伤。

Hebron is the Belfast of the West Bank—a place with far too much history, bloodshed, and religious fervor and not enough geography. For Jews, the massacre of 1929 was yesterday. For Palestinians, Goldstein lives. The Greater Israel movement gained one of its most consequential early footholds in Hebron, in April, 1968, when Moshe Levinger, an Orthodox rabbi, and a small group of followers posing as Swiss tourists arrived at the Arab-owned Park Hotel for a Passover Seder. This was less than a year after Israel’s victory in the Six-Day War, and its seizure of Gaza from the Egyptians and the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan. After the holiday, Levinger and his followers refused to leave—and, in effect, they never did, eventually establishing Kiryat Arba. This was an act that they regarded as similar to Abraham’s acquisition of the Cave of the Patriarchs during the Bronze Age.

希伯伦是西岸的贝尔法斯特——一个有着太多历史、流血和宗教狂热,却没有足够地理空间的地方。对犹太人来说,1929年的大屠杀恍如昨日。对巴勒斯坦人来说,戈德斯坦阴魂不散。“大以色列”运动于1968年4月在希伯伦获得了其最早、最重要的立足点之一,当时正统派拉比摩西·莱文格(Moshe Levinger)和一小群追随者假扮成瑞士游客,来到阿拉伯人拥有的公园酒店(Park Hotel)参加逾越节家宴(Passover Seder)。这距离以色列在六日战争(Six-Day War)中获胜,并从埃及人手中夺取加沙、从约旦手中夺取西岸和东耶路撒冷还不到一年。节日过后,莱文格和他的追随者拒绝离开——实际上,他们再也没有离开,最终建立了基尔亚特阿尔巴。他们认为这一行为类似于亚伯拉罕在青铜时代获得“族长洞穴”(Cave of the Patriarchs)。

“The uniqueness of Hebron is in its spiritual essence, rooted in the dawn of our national history,” Moshe Mayefsky, the official historian of Kiryat Arba, wrote. “The acquisition of the Land of Israel in its practical sense first took place here.” This manner of settlement—seizure followed by the eventual acquiescence of the government—is part of a pattern that has characterized the occupation of the West Bank ever since.

“希伯伦的独特性在于其精神本质,根植于我们民族历史的黎明,”基尔亚特阿尔巴的官方历史学家摩西·马耶夫斯基(Moshe Mayefsky)写道。“对以色列土地的实际意义上的获取,首先发生在这里。”这种定居方式——先占领,然后政府最终默许——是此后一直表征西岸占领的模式的一部分。

In the late seventies, the Israeli journalist and historian Amos Elon interviewed Levinger in Hebron. He asked the rabbi if he favored giving the vote to the Arabs in Greater Israel. Levinger replied, “I agree the Arabs were also made in God’s image. The trouble is, they’re opposed to this being a Jewish state. Therefore, the Jewishness of this state must take precedence in value over their being created in the divine image. . . . Democracy must be subordinated to Israel’s national and religious purposes. Do they grant civil rights to thieves and robbers in the United States?”

在七十年代末,以色列记者兼历史学家阿莫斯·埃隆(Amos Elon)在希伯伦采访了莱文格。他问这位拉比是否赞成给予大以色列的阿拉伯人投票权。莱文格回答说:“我同意阿拉伯人也是按照上帝的形象造的。问题是,他们反对这是一个犹太国家。因此,这个国家的犹太性必须在价值上优先于他们按照神圣形象被造的事实……民主必须服从于以色列的民族和宗教目的。在美国,他们给予小偷和强盗公民权吗?”

Levinger’s legal adviser, Elyakim Haetzni, told Elon that he had left his law practice and leased his house in Tel Aviv to move to Hebron. “I am a deliriously happy man,” he told Elon. “The Land is here, in Kiryat Arba, not in Tel Aviv. . . . Kiryat Arba does not exist to defend Tel Aviv from Arab attack, but the other way round. Tel Aviv exists to protect Kiryat Arba.”

莱文格的法律顾问埃利亚基姆·哈埃茨尼(Elyakim Haetzni)告诉埃隆,他已经放弃了自己的律师业务,出租了在特拉维夫的房子,搬到了希伯伦。“我是一个欣喜若狂的人,”他告诉埃隆。“土地在这里,在基尔亚特阿尔巴,不在特拉维夫……基尔亚特阿尔巴的存在不是为了保护特拉维夫免受阿拉伯人的攻击,而是恰恰相反。特拉维夫的存在是为了保护基尔亚特阿尔巴。”

As Shaul and I walked through Hebron and discussed the recent surge in settler violence, he recalled his own service there as a young soldier. The Israelis conducted nighttime raids meant to intimidate the population, a practice they called “making our presence known.” Now, with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich exercising broad power over the West Bank, the atmosphere was immeasurably more ominous.

当我和绍尔走在希伯伦,讨论近期定居者暴力的激增时,他回忆起自己年轻时在这里服役的经历。以色列人进行夜间突袭,意在恐吓民众,他们称这种做法为“宣示我们的存在”。现在,随着本-格维尔和斯莫特里赫在西岸行使广泛权力,气氛变得不可估量地更加不祥。

“Have you ever seen an anti-colonial struggle where the native population is the majority and gives up?” Shaul said. “This is not the American Indians. The quiet in Hebron is camouflage. Look at the numbers. This is not China and Tibet. Israel doesn’t have tens of millions of Jews to overwhelm the Palestinians. The ruthless geographical policies are a sign of weakness in the face of demography. That’s how a minority rules.”

“你见过哪场反殖民斗争中,本土人口占多数却放弃的?”绍尔说。“这不是美洲印第安人。希伯伦的安静是伪装。看看数字。这不是中国和西藏。以色列没有数千万犹太人来压倒巴勒斯坦人。面对人口结构,无情的地理政策是软弱的标志。这就是少数群体统治的方式。”

His foreboding echoed what I had heard in Jaffa, from Rula Daood, one of the leaders of A Place for Us All, a small Arab-Jewish party. “Something will explode,” she said. “You can’t take the rights of people and think they will sit quietly.” Daood recalled seeing a settler strip naked on the street in Hebron, deliberately affronting the religious Muslims around him. “It is another way of conquering the land,” she told me.

他的不祥预感与我在雅法(Jaffa)从鲁拉·达乌德(Rula Daood)那里听到的相呼应,达乌德是一个小型阿拉伯-犹太政党“我们所有人的地方”(A Place for Us All)的领导人之一。“有些事情会爆炸,”她说。“你不能剥夺人民的权利,还指望他们安静地坐着。”达乌德回忆起曾看到一个定居者在希伯伦街头脱光衣服,故意冒犯他周围的虔诚穆斯林。“这是征服土地的另一种方式,”她告诉我。

Shaul and I drove out of Hebron and into the parched hills toward the village of Susya. Shepherds tended small flocks beside a road leading to a cluster of ramshackle dwellings. There we met Nasser Nawaja, an impassive man in his early forties who works as a field researcher for the human-rights group B’Tselem. He spends his days recording acts of settler violence in the hills and estimates that an incident occurs somewhere in the area every few hours.

绍尔和我驱车离开希伯伦,驶入干旱的山丘,前往苏西亚(Susya)村。牧羊人在通往一片破旧房屋群的路边照看着小羊群。在那里,我们见到了纳赛尔·纳瓦贾(Nasser Nawaja),一个四十出头、面无表情的男人,他在人权组织“以色列占领区人权信息中心”(B'Tselem)担任田野研究员。他每天都在记录山区的定居者暴力行为,并估计该地区每隔几小时就会发生一起事件。

Nawaja was born in 1982 in a cave in Old Susya. Four years later, after the Israeli authorities declared the village an archeological site, his family was among the residents expelled from their homes. Nawaja said that the most formative experience of his life came years later, when, at the age of seventeen, he was arrested with several other villagers. They were accused of a killing about which they knew nothing, and were interrogated through the night, bent over, “our noses and mouths in the dirt.”

纳瓦贾于1982年出生在老苏西亚的一个山洞里。四年后,以色列当局宣布该村为考古遗址,他的家人是被驱逐出家园的居民之一。纳瓦贾说,他一生中最具塑造性的经历发生在多年以后,当时他十七岁,与其他几个村民一起被捕。他们被指控犯下了一桩他们一无所知的谋杀案,并被整夜审讯,弯着腰,“我们的鼻子和嘴埋在土里。”

“In the morning, they realized that we had nothing to do with it and they released us,” Nawaja said. “We approached the ridge near our house—and I didn’t see our village! Where were our tents and our homes? When I got here, I saw people crying and faces black with dirt. The I.D.F. came and demolished the whole village. More than thirty families. Right where we are sitting now.”

“早上,他们意识到我们与此事无关,就释放了我们,”纳瓦贾说。“我们走近我们家附近的山脊——我没看到我们的村庄!我们的帐篷和家在哪里?当我到达这里时,我看到人们在哭泣,脸上沾满泥土。以色列国防军来了,拆毁了整个村庄。三十多户人家。就在我们现在坐的地方。”

He recalled, “I was full of hatred. If you had given me a suicide belt, I hated Jews, I would go do it at that moment. I slept one night here, and I thought about what I went through and about revenge. The next morning, a bunch of Jews came here, buses of Jewish activists who came to rebuild our homes. It shakes your brain! Who are they? Collaborators? Just yesterday, Jews had destroyed our homes. That made me think. That’s when I understood ultimately that I was at a junction between becoming violent or taking a different path toward nonviolence. I chose that path.”

他回忆道:“我充满了仇恨。如果你当时给我一条自杀式腰带,我恨犹太人,我会立刻去做。我在这里睡了一晚,想着我所经历的一切和复仇。第二天早上,一群犹太人来到这里,一车车的犹太活动人士来重建我们的家园。这震撼了你的大脑!他们是谁?合作者?就在昨天,犹太人摧毁了我们的家园。这让我思考。那时我终于明白,我正处在一个十字路口:要么变得暴力,要么走一条不同的非暴力道路。我选择了那条路。”

The path has been difficult. Nawaja cares for an ailing, elderly father and a five-year-old daughter with profound physical and cognitive disabilities. He said that he has repeatedly been arrested and detained, and is barred from visiting the Al-Aqsa Mosque, in Jerusalem. “I am an enemy of the occupying regime,” he said. “And, on the Palestinian side, you always feel you need to explain your position to those who don’t understand Jewish and Palestinian activists.”

这条路一直很艰难。纳瓦贾要照顾年迈多病的父亲和一个有严重身体和认知残疾的五岁女儿。他说他多次被捕和拘留,并被禁止前往耶路撒冷的阿克萨清真寺(Al-Aqsa Mosque)。“我是占领政权的敌人,”他说。“而在巴勒斯坦方面,你总觉得需要向那些不理解犹太和巴勒斯坦活动人士的人解释你的立场。”

When Nawaja and other activists call the police to report settler vandalism or violence, the officers sometimes take the activists themselves to a nearby base and interrogate them for hours. Police officers and settlers are often connected by friendship or family ties. “They treat animals better than they treat us,” Nawaja said.

当纳瓦贾和其他活动人士打电话报警报告定居者的破坏或暴力行为时,警察有时会把活动人士自己带到附近的基地,审问数小时。警察和定居者常常通过友谊或家庭关系联系在一起。“他们对待动物都比对待我们好,”纳瓦贾说。

The plan, Nawaja believed, was clear: to “embitter” the lives of the more than three million Palestinians in the West Bank and, when the political circumstances permitted, annex the territory to a Greater Israel. It was the future that Moshe Levinger had imagined decades earlier.

纳瓦贾认为,计划很明确:让西岸三百多万巴勒斯坦人的生活“痛苦不堪”,并在政治环境允许时,将这片领土并入大以色列。这就是摩西·莱文格几十年前想象的未来。

Nawaja regards October 7th as having provided a “golden opportunity” for the radical right to advance its agenda. He is gravely concerned that, even if the October election ends the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich, an opposition government led by Eisenkot or someone else will lack the will or the political capacity to chart a radically different course.

纳瓦贾认为10月7日为激进右翼推进其议程提供了一个“黄金机会”。他严重关切的是,即使10月的选举结束了内塔尼亚胡、本-格维尔和斯莫特里赫的政府,由艾森科特或其他人领导的反对派政府也将缺乏意愿或政治能力来规划一条截然不同的道路。

“The way I see it, there will be a change, but not a dramatic one,” he said. “Eisenkot might ‘protect democracy’ and the courts in Israel, but when it comes to the Palestinians it won’t change things much.”

“在我看来,会有变化,但不会是戏剧性的变化,”他说。“艾森科特可能会在以色列‘保护民主’和法院,但在涉及巴勒斯坦人的问题上,情况不会有太大改变。”

The alarm is hardly confined to Palestinian activists. In June, dozens of former leaders of the Israeli establishment, including Prime Ministers, generals, a Nobel laureate, and heads of Mossad, sent Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and other ministers a letter protesting “Jewish terrorism” in the West Bank. They cited acts of murder, sexual violence, and desecration of the dead, carried out, they said, with “almost complete impunity.” Tamir Pardo, a former chief of Mossad, warned in the letter that the failure to halt such violence represented “an existential threat for the state of Israel and runs the risk of further slaughter in the manner of October 7th.” The signatories threatened legal action and wrote that the violence in the West Bank was “reminiscent of similar crimes and pogroms committed against our people by other nations in eastern Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries.”

这种警觉并不仅限于巴勒斯坦活动人士。6月,数十名以色列建制派前领导人,包括前总理、将军、一位诺贝尔奖得主和摩萨德(Mossad)负责人,致信内塔尼亚胡、本-格维尔、斯莫特里赫和其他部长,抗议西岸的“犹太恐怖主义”。他们列举了谋杀、性暴力和亵渎死者等行为,并称这些行为是在“几乎完全不受惩罚”的情况下实施的。摩萨德前负责人塔米尔·帕尔多(Tamir Pardo)在信中警告说,未能制止此类暴力“对以色列国构成了生存威胁,并有可能引发类似10月7日那样的进一步屠杀”。签名者威胁要采取法律行动,并写道,西岸的暴力“让人想起其他民族在19世纪和20世纪在东欧对我们人民犯下的类似罪行和集体迫害(pogroms)”。

Netanyahu did not respond. He generally reserves his Hebrew-language interviews for Channel 14 and speaks more freely to the foreign press. When he does address the crisis in the West Bank, he finds rhetorical means to diminish it. In a recent interview with CNN, he blamed the violence on a small group of young extremists, “a hundred and fifty or so what you would call juvenile delinquents” who were, he claimed, not themselves settlers.

内塔尼亚胡没有回应。他通常将希伯来语采访留给第14频道,对外国媒体则更畅所欲言。当他确实谈到西岸危机时,他会用修辞手段来淡化它。在最近接受CNN采访时,他将暴力归咎于一小群年轻极端分子,“大约一百五十个左右,你们会称之为少年犯的人”,他声称,这些人本身并不是定居者。

Viewed from abroad, Netanyahu’s grip on power can seem almost incomprehensible after years of scandal, brutality, and attacks on democratic institutions. Yet, despite his current peril in the polls, he may endure for a simple reason. He knows how to play on fear and has depicted himself as the only man ruthless enough to keep Israelis safe.

从国外看,经过多年的丑闻、暴行和对民主体制的攻击,内塔尼亚胡对权力的掌控似乎几乎是不可理解的。然而,尽管他目前在民调中处境危险,他可能因为一个简单的原因而继续存在。他知道如何利用恐惧,并将自己描绘成唯一一个足够冷酷无情以保障以色列人安全的人。

Nadav Eyal, the columnist for Yedioth Ahronoth, told me about meeting a woman recently in Kfar Aza, one of the kibbutzim hit hardest by Hamas. She was crying and said that she could no longer live near Palestinians. “If Netanyahu wins, it’s because of that,” Eyal told me. “This is what people don’t get. The sentiment in Israel, and Netanyahu understands it, is so powerfully about what has happened and how your worst fears were completely vindicated. From the outside, October 7th was another round of violence that ended with seventy thousand people dead. No, what happened on October 7th had never happened here before, a pogrom that triggered something here—the Jewish experience, over thousands of years. This is how Netanyahu gains power and maintains it. His skepticism, his distrust of the region around him, his devotion to the Iron Wall. His ability is to use the Israeli psyche. He represents a deep skepticism toward Arabs unless they accept Israel’s dominance over the territory.”

《新消息报》的专栏作家纳达夫·埃亚尔告诉我,他最近在卡法阿扎(Kfar Aza)遇到一位妇女,那里是受哈马斯打击最严重的基布兹之一。她哭着说,她再也不能住在巴勒斯坦人附近了。“如果内塔尼亚胡赢了,就是因为这个,”埃亚尔告诉我。“这是人们不明白的地方。以色列的情绪,内塔尼亚胡理解这一点,是如此强烈地关乎所发生的一切,以及你最深的恐惧是如何被完全证实的。从外部看,10月7日是又一轮以七万人死亡告终的暴力事件。不,10月7日发生的事情在这里从未发生过,一场集体迫害触发了这里的某种东西——犹太人几千年的经历。这就是内塔尼亚胡获得并维持权力的方式。他的怀疑主义,他对周围地区的不信任,他对‘铁墙’(Iron Wall)的信奉。他的能力在于利用以色列人的心理。他代表了对阿拉伯人的深刻怀疑,除非他们接受以色列在这片领土上的主导地位。”

Eyal was describing the emotional terrain on which Netanyahu hoped to survive. The response that Eisenkot’s campaign had decided on was less a contrasting ideology than a contrasting character. In late June, Eisenkot formally launched Yashar’s campaign at an event center in Hod HaSharon, north of Tel Aviv. It was a smoothly run, thoroughly scripted affair. During an outdoor reception before the rally, I spotted Nahum Barnea, the dean of Israeli journalism. He is eighty-one and slender as a stalk, and travels to his appointments by bicycle. He has been the acerbic bane of many Prime Ministers, including Netanyahu, yet he seemed encouraged by Eisenkot’s candidacy, particularly by its projection of a sense of decency.

埃亚尔描述的是内塔尼亚胡赖以生存的情感地带。艾森科特的竞选团队决定采取的回应,与其说是一种对比鲜明的意识形态,不如说是一种对比鲜明的品格。6月下旬,艾森科特在特拉维夫以北霍德沙龙(Hod HaSharon)的一个活动中心正式启动了亚沙尔党的竞选活动。这是一场运作顺畅、完全照本宣科的活动。在集会前的户外招待会上,我看到了以色列新闻界的泰斗纳胡姆·巴尼亚(Nahum Barnea)。他八十一岁,瘦得像根秸秆,骑自行车赴约。他曾是包括内塔尼亚胡在内的多位总理的尖刻克星,但他似乎对艾森科特的候选资格感到鼓舞,尤其是它所投射出的正派感。

“He can stop the bleeding in two areas,” Barnea told me. The first was Israel’s standing in the world. “Remember the old ad campaign for 7 UP? He is the ‘un-cola.’ ” The second was the country’s polarization, the bitterness of its political discourse. Eisenkot might embody a different kind of public figure. “He’s misleading because people see an overweight guy, like a bear, very warm and informal. He doesn’t look like a general. But he is hardly mediocre. He is serious. And, yes, he lost his son in war. He knows that his bereavement is a political advantage, and not cynically. He represents a going back to public service.”

“他可以在两个方面止血,”巴尼亚告诉我。第一是以色列在世界上的地位。“还记得七喜(7 UP)的老广告语吗?他就是‘非可乐’(un-cola)。”第二是该国的两极分化,其政治话语的尖刻。艾森科特可能代表了一种不同类型的公众人物。“他具有误导性,因为人们看到一个超重的家伙,像头熊,非常热情、不拘小节。他看起来不像个将军。但他绝非平庸之辈。他是认真的。而且,是的,他在战争中失去了儿子。他知道他的丧亲之痛是一种政治优势,而且并非出于犬儒。他代表着回归公共服务。”

As “Golani Sheli,” the anthem of Eisenkot’s old brigade, boomed from the speakers, the candidate walked onstage to loud applause. There was little ideology in his appeal, certainly nothing about a Palestinian state. The campaign had been built around service, sacrifice, reform, and repair. Whether those themes could compete with the fears Netanyahu had spent years cultivating was a question that the election would decide. ♦

当艾森科特老部队的军歌《我的戈兰尼》(Golani Sheli)从扬声器中响起时,候选人在热烈的掌声中走上舞台。他的呼吁中几乎没有意识形态,当然也没有关于巴勒斯坦国的内容。这场竞选活动是围绕服务、牺牲、改革和修复建立起来的。这些主题能否与内塔尼亚胡多年来精心培养的恐惧相抗衡,是一个将由选举来决定的问题。 ♦

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