Fault Lines

Eight Predictions for the Future of Higher Education

高等教育的未来八项预测
The next decade won’t be Armageddon. But it will bring a lot of change.
未来十年不会是世界末日,但变化注定接踵而至。
Illustration of a school about to fall off a cliff.
Illustration by George Wylesol

When I started this six-week-long series by asking whether my daughter would be attending college in 2035, the year she turns eighteen, I was pretty sure I already knew the answer. Nine years is a short amount of time, and something disastrous—or, I suppose, downright liberatory—would need to happen in the culture to make it unlikely for her to shuttle off to some campus after high school.

六周前,我以一个问题开启了这组系列文章:到2035年我女儿满十八岁时,她还会上大学吗?当时我几乎笃定自己知道答案。九年不过弹指一挥间,除非文化层面发生某种灾难性——或者,我想,彻底解放性的——剧变,否则她高中毕业后不去某所校园读书的可能性微乎其微。

Still, thinking about the future of higher education has convinced me that her path to a bachelor’s degree will be very different from the one I began in 1998. I want to end the series with a set of of predictions about what will happen to higher ed in the next nine years:

尽管如此,对高等教育未来的思考让我确信,她通往学士学位的道路,将与我1998年开启的那条截然不同。我想用一组预测来结束这个系列,展望未来九年高等教育将会发生什么:

As a columnist, I’m almost embarrassed by the dearth of truly hot takes in this list. This is hardly Armageddon for higher education. But the future does kind of suck, and looking over this list makes me wonder if the more appropriate framing for this series would’ve been to ask about my future grandchildren rather than my children. Will they be attending college in the twenty-fifties or the twenty-sixties, when the attrition of the next decade or two has run its course, universities have consolidated, and we’ve come to some livable peace with technology? If my hypothetical grandchild grows up like my actual daughter, in an educated household in an expensive town surrounded by educated friends with educated parents, what will pull them to a campus? For me, it was an imperative: go to college or end up homeless on the street. Or so it seemed. For my nine-year-old daughter, in 2035, I imagine it will feel more like inertia: go to college because you might as well have a degree in an uncertain and changing world, where every day some A.I. company or another announces yet another industry that will soon be taken over by the robots.

作为专栏作者,这份清单里缺乏真正惊世骇俗的论断,几乎让我感到汗颜。这对高等教育而言远非末日。但未来的确有些令人沮丧,审视这份清单时,我不禁想,或许这个系列更恰当的设问对象,应该是我未来的孙辈而非子女。到本世纪五六十年代,当未来一二十年的淘汰进程走完它的周期,大学完成整合,我们与技术达成某种尚可忍受的和平共处时,他们还会上大学吗?如果我假想中的孙辈像我真实的女儿一样,成长于一个教育程度高的家庭,住在一个生活成本高昂的城镇,周围都是受过良好教育的朋友和他们的父母,什么力量会牵引他们走向校园?对我而言,那曾是一道绝对命令:要么上大学,要么流落街头。至少当时感觉如此。而对2035年时九岁的女儿来说,我想那会更像一种惯性:去上大学吧,反正在这个充满变数的世界里,有个学位总没坏处——每天都有某家AI公司宣布又一个行业即将被机器人接管。

Inertia, though, is finite. If the university is no longer just the place you go to get a degree that gets you on a job, what is it? As far as I can tell after my inquiries during the past six weeks, almost no one has a particularly good answer to that question. In the coming years, as the pain starts at so many of these universities, their administrators, faculty, and those with a direct stake in the future of higher education need to figure out what a college education is for.

然而,惯性终有耗尽之时。如果大学不再仅仅是那个让你拿到学位、找到工作的地方,那它究竟是什么?经过过去六周的探究,据我所知,几乎没有人能对这个问题给出一个特别好的答案。未来几年,随着阵痛在众多高校中蔓延开来,大学管理者、教职员工以及那些与高等教育未来有直接利害关系的人,必须想清楚:大学教育究竟是为了什么。

My suggestion: It’s easier to come up with a collective vision for an educated population than it is to keep flogging exclusivity, élite credentials, and whatever else colleges sell these days. A.I. will, at minimum, shift the access points to all sorts of information, flatten much of the differences between formerly disparate forms of education—as the robot learns more, it’ll arrive at some bland but acceptable amalgam of all it has read, and everyone who relies on the robot will take that mush as the consensus—and radically change the way students work, especially in STEM fields. Under those conditions, can colleges still sell class mobility through an exclusive education? Or will they do better to look at the existing infrastructure of affordable community and regional public colleges, hear what young people and their families are saying about the cost of tuition and student debt, and then make a broader appeal for education for the sake of the public? ♦

我的建议是:与其继续兜售排他性、精英文凭以及如今大学贩卖的种种其他东西,不如为一个受过教育的社会构想出某种集体愿景,这要容易得多。人工智能至少会改变各类信息的获取入口,抹平原本迥异的教育形式之间的大部分差异——随着机器人学习得越多,它会将所读内容融合成某种平淡但尚可接受的混合物,而每个依赖机器人的人都将把这团浆糊视为共识——并从根本上改变学生的学习方式,尤其是在STEM领域。在这样的条件下,大学还能通过排他性的教育兜售阶层跃迁吗?还是说,它们不如审视一下现有的、可负担的社区学院和地区公立大学的基础设施,倾听年轻人和他们的家庭对学费和学生债务的呼声,然后为教育本身——为了公共利益的教育——发出更广泛的呼吁?♦

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